French Open Quarterfinal Predictions: Trust Jessica Pegula to Push Swiatek to the Limit
French Open Quarterfinal Predictions: Trust Jessica Pegula to Push Swiatek to the Limit
Yesterday’s quarterfinal French Open action on the men’s side featured the top four contenders to take home the hardware. Carlos Alcaraz outlasted Alexander Zverev, while Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal played in one of the most high-profile matches between two of the sport’s all-time greats.
Thus, no matter who played yesterday, the action would seem like a letdown after the star power that took the court yesterday. Instead, we are treated to a matchup of two of the sport’s rising stars on Wednesday as Casper Ruud meets Holger Rune. On the women’s side, the sport’s current biggest star, Iga Swiatek, looks to continue her dominance in a quarterfinal matchup with American Jessica Pegula.
Here are our best plays for tomorrow's Ruud-Rune and Swiatek-Pegula quarterfinal matches.
Casper Ruud vs. Holger Rune OVER 37.5 Games (-110) (Bet $110 to win $100)
After unseeded Holger Rune upset No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round, it set up an unlikely quarterfinal matchup with No. 8 seed Casper Ruud. Both Rune and Casper Ruud made history of sorts in this tournament, as Rune joined Carlos Alcaraz as the first pair of teenagers to make the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since the 1994 French Open. And Ruud became the first Norwegian man to reach the quarters at Roland Garros.
Before this French Open run, Rune had never been past the first round of a Grand Slam and was 0-2 in Grand Slam tournaments before this year. While we usually point out inexperience as a reason to pick against someone like Rune, Ruud had made it past the third round in just one previous Grand Slam event (2021 Australian Open).
Ruud has won all three career matchups against Rune in straight sets, and all have come on clay. However, Rune pushed him in their last match, losing 6-7, 5-7 in Monaco leading up to the French Open.
Rune has served exceptionally well so far in this tournament, holding serve better than 90% of the time before his match against Tsitsipas. And though he was broken three times by the Greek, he converted five of his 11 break point chances, and his second serve winning percentage was a staggering 70%.
Ruud has won his last 11 ATP main draw matches as a favorite but has failed to cover the game spread in each of his previous eight ATP quarterfinal matches on clay. Thus, with Rune serving as well as he has of late, we should see a match that goes longer than expected.
Looking for the best sportsbook offers? Check out the free bets page
Iga Swiatek vs. Jessica Pegula OVER 2.5 Sets (+205) (Bet $100 to win $205)
Before her fourth-round match against Chinese teenager Qinwen Zheng, it appeared nothing was going to stand in Iga Swiatek’s way en route to a second career French Open title. Swiatek eventually prevailed in three sets (6-7, 6-0, 6-2), but she showed some vulnerability early, despite now being on the precipice of history. Swiatek has now won 32 consecutive matches, which is two shy of matching Serena Williams’ 34 straight victories set back in 2013.
Swiatek should beat Pegula, but the American could make her work, and we are getting great value for this match to go three sets. Swiatek’s match against Zheng was just her second in the last 22 WTA main draw matches that were not decided in straight sets. However, Pegula owns a win over Swiatek (1-1 head-to-head career record), and in the lone loss, Pegula broke Swiatek’s serve three times and had four other break-point opportunities.
Pegula is excellent at covering the court and extending rallies. With Swiatek’s serve a little nervy her last few matches, Pegula has an excellent chance to break early and often, forcing this match to a decisive third set.