Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction: Who Wins This Epic Match Between Two All-Time Greats?
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction: Who Wins This Epic Match Between Two All-Time Greats?
Given Rafael Nadal’s career dominance at Roland Garros and how accomplished both he and Novak Djokovic are compared to the rest of the men’s field, it seems odd that a showdown between two of the sport’s greatest competitors of all time are meeting today in the French Open quarterfinals as opposed to the championship.
Despite not having a Grand Slam title on the line, this is arguably the most historic men’s tennis match of all time. Per @atptour on Twitter, today’s Nadal-Djokovic quarterfinal match is the first men’s tennis match that features two players with at least 20 Grand Slam titles, two players with at least 1000 match wins, and two players with at least 300 Grand Slam wins.
So which all-time great keeps his hopes alive for yet another piece of Grand Slam hardware? Here is our best play for today’s Nadal vs. Djokovic quarterfinal match along with the Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic odds.
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Odds and Prediction
Before the French Open started, Nadal’s odds of winning went from best to third-best, even behind Carlos Alcaraz, after suffering a foot injury in a straight-set loss to Denis Shapovalov on clay in Rome. However, Nadal’s health has not looked like an issue to this point, as he cruised to three straight-set victories before winning a classic five-set match against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round.
Djokovic has comparatively spent much less time on the court, cruising to four consecutive straight-set victories. His latest was easily his most impressive, as No. 15 seed Diego Schwartzman was never a threat in a 6-1, 6-3, 6-3 Djokovic win. Djokovic has only had one of 12 sets last longer than nine games, and his impressive play thus far has made him a sizable -245 moneyline favorite against the 13-time French Open champion.
There was a bit of controversy about making this matchup at night, as Nadal was adamant about wanting to play earlier during the day. He has long preferred to play during the day on clay, as the brighter and warmer conditions make for a faster track, which better suits his game. However, his “request” was not granted, and many believe the slower conditions are a considerable advantage for Djokovic.
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Djokovic will likely be motivated to keep his quest for a record-tying 21 Grand Slams alive, and he has a huge advantage for being on the court for less than half the time Nadal was on the court in his epic five-set win over FAA. However, we cannot lay the steep -245 odds with Djokovic, as Nadal is 5-1 in his last six main draw matches on clay against Djokovic.
Though Nadal holds a 19-8 head-to-head edge on clay against Djokovic, Djokovic has won two of their last three meetings at Roland Garros. Thus, the better play is choosing how many sets the world No. 1 will win by. Nadal has won the first set in 25 of his last 26 matches at Roland Garros, so we will give the Spaniard at least one set. But we do not expect his fitness to hold up much longer after that, making Djokovic’s odds to win three sets to one the most appealing. In addition, we will add Djokovic’s set spread odds as a second play, just in case he wins in straight sets.
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Picks
- Novak Djokovic to win 3 Sets to 1 (+295) (Bet $100 to win $295)
- Djokovic -1.5 sets (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)