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Nadal and Kyrgios get set for what should be an epic semifinal match at Wimbledon on Friday, and tennis expert Mike Spector tells us which player should have the upper hand.
ANALYSIS

Rafael Nadal vs Nick Kyrgios Wimbledon Odds and Prediction: Can Nadal Keep His Grand Slam Success Alive?

Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: July 8, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:30 am ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

Click Here for Nadal vs Kyrgios Odds

Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Prediction

Standing in the way of Rafael Nadal’s quest for a third consecutive Grand Slam final and the dream of winning the calendar Grand Slam is the brash, emotional, unsubdued, and outspoken Australian, Nick Kyrgios. This match is must-watch television, not just for the stellar play about to unfold between two highly talented players but also for how each navigates the chess match that is about to ensue.

Kyrgios likes to work through his service games with blazing speed, while Nadal is a much more methodical player, often toweling off between points and using all the shot clock when it is his turn to serve. Thus, whoever keeps his wits about him best is almost as important as who plays better. For us, we expect more from the level-headed Nadal.

These two men have quite the history leading up to this match, as Kyrgios first broke onto the stage with a massive upset of Nadal at this venue in 2014. Nadal returned the favor with a four-set victory in the most-recent Wimbledon meeting in 2019 and has won four of the last five overall meetings with Kyrgios (6-3 all-time).

However, Nadal is an underdog in this match largely because of an injury concern that arose in his quarterfinal win over Taylor Fritz. Nadal had to leave the court to get treatment for an abdominal injury but returned to gut out a five-set victory, clinching the match in a dominating fifth-set tiebreak.

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We have seen Nadal as an underdog before, most recently at the French Open when he was an underdog against Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals. That proved a mistake, as the Spaniard proved why he is the “King of Clay” and cashed profitable plus-odds tickets for his bettors.

While clay is his much-preferred surface, Nadal is still 19-0 in his last 19 Grand Slam matches, and his ability to rise to the occasion on the biggest stages matters just as much as the surface he plays on. And it also helps that Grand Slams are five-set matches, as he is tough to beat in a match that long.

Thus, we are looking the other way on Kyrgios’ 12-2 grass record this season and expect Nadal to compete well against the Australian’s powerful serve, given that he had 14 break point chances against Fritz last round and converted seven of them. 

It is a bit refreshing to be able just to pick the winner of a tennis match and not have to get creative with game spreads, set spreads, or other exotic prop wagers just to avoid paying steep odds. For example, in the other three Wimbledon semifinals (including the Women’s Draw), the moneyline favorites have -1600, -800, and -340 odds. Thus, we are happy to back Nadal’s +125 odds to win outright, as he (and Djokovic, for that matter) have proven that it takes an opponent’s best to outlast them in a five-set match. 

Rafael Nadal vs. Nick Kyrgios Pick

PICK: Rafael Nadal ML (+125) (Bet $100 to win $100)

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Article Author

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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