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Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner each won three matches this week to set up a heavyweight final at the ATP Croatia Open, and tennis expert Mike Spector analyzes and explains his best wager. 

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Prediction and Odds: ATP Croatia Open

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Start Time and Odds

When: 2:00 pm ET

Odds: Click Here for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Odds

While the Atlanta Open had arguably the deeper field this week, the ATP Croatia Open was the most top-heavy, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, two of the top-ten ranked men’s players in the world, headlining the field.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction

Of these two players, Alcaraz has made the only hiccup in this tournament, dropping one set in his semifinal match against Giulio Zeppieri. Though No. 5-ranked Alcaraz is now 27-3 on clay this year, his serve needs to be much better than it was against Zeppieri if he wants to beat Sinner. Alcaraz was broken four times, which is surprising considering his opponent had not won a tour-level match before this event.

Sinner had a much more tidy semifinal win against Franco Agamenone, losing just four combined games. In addition, while Alcaraz was broken four times in his match against Zeppieri, Sinner has been broken just four times all tournament. However, that does not mean things have been all good for the Italian, as he landed just 66% of his first serves and won a mere 68% of his first serve points against Agamenone. 

These two men have faced each other twice on the ATP tour, as Sinner won in four sets at Wimbledon this year, while Alcaraz won in straight sets on hard court in Paris in 2021. If you count the one match where they met each other in a non-tour level match, Alcaraz holds a 2-1 advantage as he beat Sinner on clay in three sets in Alicante in 2019.

Alcaraz has more experience in big matches; this is his tour-leading sixth finals appearance this year, while it is Sinner’s first. In addition, Alcaraz can draw from the experience of winning this title last year, which spurred a successful clay-court season. He is 41-6 this year and is 28-18-1 against the game spread. While Sinner is a worthy opponent, Alcaraz’s game is more suited to clay, and he will overcome the hiccup of dropping a set last match to defend his Umag title successfully.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner Pick

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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