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The final at the ATP Citi Open this afternoon is between two unseeded players, Nick Kyrgios and Yoshihito Nishioka. Who's going to win? Tennis handicapper and expert Mike Spector breaks down the match.
ANALYSIS

Nick Kyrgios vs. Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction and Odds: ATP Citi Open

The final at the ATP Citi Open this afternoon is between two unseeded players, but only one of these finalists can be considered a surprise. Nick Kyrgios won the doubles title in Atlanta, reached the finals of Wimbledon, and appeared in the semifinals at Halle, Stuttgart, and Houston, all within his last six tournaments leading up to this week. Meanwhile, Yoshihito Nishioka is making his biggest finals appearance ever and the third final of his career after upsetting Andrey Rublev as a +350 underdog yesterday.

Can Nishioka finish the best week of his career with one more massive upset? Or will Kyrgios continue his fantastic season with another ATP title? 

Nick Kyrgios vs. Yoshihito Nishioka Start Time. Where to Watch, and Odds

Start Time: 5:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: Tennis Channel

Click Here for Kyrgios vs Niskioka Odds

Nick Kyrgios vs. Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction

Leading up to his last match against top-seeded Andrey Rublev, Nishioka had not won four matches in a row since 2020, when he reached the final at Delray Beach. However, he has climbed inside the top-60 of the world rankings after beating five straight top 40 players and all players seeded in this tournament. Nishioka’s win against Rublev was just his third top-ten win of his career. It was even more impressive considering Rublev had not lost a set in the tournament leading up to the match.

Kyrgios is appearing in his second final in DC after not facing a break point in his semifinal match against Mikael Ymer. Outside of Wimbledon, this is his first ATP final since winning this event in 2019. 

Kyrgios has rode a dominant serve to get to this stage. He has not been broken all week and dropped only four of 19 second-serve points against Ymer. Despite that, some will say Kyrgios is lucky to be here after saving five match points against Frances Tiafoe.

Nishioka is one of the best counter-punchers on tour and will try and use Kyrgios’ pace against him. However, it would behoove Nishioka to try different things and simply not try and out-hit Kyrgios from the baseline as he did against Rublev, as the Australian’s baseline game has been more consistent than Rublev’s all tournament long.

Kyrgios is 3-0 head-to-head against Nishioka (4-0 if including qualifying events), with all wins coming on hard courts and three of the four in straight sets. Thus, while Nishioka’s unique style gave the likes of Jenson Brooksby, Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov, Dan Evans, and Andrey Rublev fits, Kyrgios’ experience of having played Nishioka so many times will serve him well in this match. 

For value sake, we cannot touch Kyrgios’ -670 moneyline odds. However, he has won the first set in each of his last four ATP finals. And with the frequency he has beaten Nishioka in straight sets, we look for another tidy victory tonight. For this bet, FanDuel (-185) is offering much better odds than DraftKings’ -250. 

Nick Kyrgios vs. Yoshihito Nishioka Prediction

PICK: Nick Kyrgios to win 2 Sets to 0 (-185) (Bet $185 to win $100)

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Article Author

NFLNCAABNCAAFTennisMLBNBA

Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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