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Today's ATP Montreal Finals is set to be an exciting one and Mike Spector breaks down the matchup, as well as offers his best pick.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction and Odds: ATP Montreal Finals

The National Bank Open started with a loaded field of seven of the world's top ten men's players. Thus, it is surprising that each of the two players battling for today's title came from outside the top ten in the world rankings to reach this point.

Hubert Hurkacz entered the semifinal round as the only player of the four left to have ever won an ATP Masters title (2021 Miami). Will that experience of winning before give him a significant edge over Pablo Carreno Busta, who is playing in his first-ever ATP Masters finals? Tennis expert Mike Spector offers his two best bets for this match, each paying plus odds.

Hubert Hurkacz vs. Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

When: 4:00 pm ET

Click Here for Hubert Hurkacz vs. Pablo Carreno Odds

When analyzing non-Grand Slam events, one has to consider a fatigue factor, as the players play matches on consecutive days throughout the week and do not get built-in off-days as they do in Grand Slams when the matches are best-of-five sets. From a fatigue standpoint, it is anyone's guess how the 31-year-old Pablo Carreno Busta will react after a nearly three-hour long marathon against Daniel Evans in the semifinals.

Carreno Busta could have had a much tidier straight-set win but failed to convert a match point up 6-5 in the second-set tiebreaker and instead needed a third set to clinch the victory. However, Carreno Busta showed no signs of fatigue late in the match, as he did not drop a point over the final three games.

Carreno Busta has won six titles before, but this one would be his biggest, which will affect him mentally in this match. And while he looked fit at the end of his last match, the battle against Evans has to take its toll today. 

History is against Carreno Busta today, as no unseeded player has won this tournament since 2002. And while he has dropped just one set to this point, Hurkacz has been the more consistent player all season, now owning a 32-13 record this year. 

It would behoove Carreno Busta to win the first set in this match, as Hurkacz has won 28 of his 29 matches this year in which he has won the first set. Carreno Busta has done just that, winning the first set in his last ten ATP main draw matches on hard court. Thus, we will give the Spaniard an adrenaline-fueled first set victory, but we expect Hurkacz to win in three, as he is 7-0 in his last seven ATP main draw matches on the hard court against older opponents.

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Hubert Hurkacz vs. Pablo Carreno Pick

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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