Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Predictions, Picks, Odds: US Open Men's Final
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Predictions, Picks, Odds: US Open Men's Final
After appearing in his first-ever Grand Slam semifinal, Carlos Alcaraz outlasted American Frances Tiafoe and now has a chance to win his first major title. Casper Ruud is appearing in his second Grand Slam final of the year and, too, is searching for his first-ever championship at a major. Will the experience of finishing runner-up at Roland Garros help the No. 5 seed, Ruud, in this match? Tennis expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best bet for Sunday’s US Open Men’s final.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: Sunday, September 11
Time: 4:00 pm ET
Where to Watch: ESPN+
Click Here for Alcaraz vs Ruud Odds
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Prediction
It is good to be young if you are Carlos Alcaraz, as the 19-year-old has played three consecutive marathon five-set matches against No. 15 seed Marin Cilic, No. 11 seed Jannik Sinner, and No. 22 seed Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe did everything he could to continue a fantastic run at Flushing Meadows, including making history with the best record in tiebreakers (8-0) throughout an entire U.S. Open tournament.
However, Alcaraz deserves credit for persevering mentally after failing to convert a match point in the fourth set and to rebound with a more convincing 6-3 win in the fifth set relative to the first four.
Casper Ruud improved to 13-2 in majors this year and should be the more rested player after his much quicker four-set victory over Karen Khachanov. And unlike Alcaraz, Ruud has endured just one five-set match to this point. But like Alcaraz, neither player had to beat a top-10 player to get to the final, so this will easily be each other’s toughest match.
Alcaraz is likely a big -230 moneyline favorite in this match as he broke serve 39% of the time leading up to the Tiafoe match, an incredibly high mark on hard courts. However, Ruud had won 40% of return points heading into his match against Khachanov, so it is not like he has been a slouch on that side of the net.
Alcaraz has won both head-to-head meetings against Ruud, with the lone match on the hard court coming in Miami this year. Alcaraz won that match 7-5, 6-4, so it suffices to say Ruud will need to make more than 59% of his first serves to pull off this upset.
The Spaniard likely has the edge, but the amount of tennis he has played in the last week has to be concerning, so we are opting for the over in the number of games.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Casper Ruud Pick
PICK: Alcaraz-Ruud Over 39.5 Games (-125) (Bet $125 to Win $100)