INSIGHT

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Brazil holds the first round of its presidential election on October 4, with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro. Can the younger Bolsonaro overcome the political baggage surrounding his family and recreate his father’s conservative coalition, or will Lula secure another term?

Israel will hold national elections on October 27, with Gadi Eisenkot now favored over Benjamin Netanyahu to become prime minister afterward. Can Israel’s longest-serving leader pull off another political escape, or will nearly three years of war and mounting pressure finally bring the Netanyahu era to an end?

The race to become the next James Bond has a new favorite, with Jack Lowden suddenly moving ahead of Callum Turner and Aaron Taylor-Johnson on Kalshi. Is the Slow Horses star genuinely closing in on 007, or has another unconfirmed casting rumor temporarily reshaped one of entertainment’s most volatile prediction markets?

The 2028 Democratic presidential field remains wide open as the 2026 midterms begin to shape the party’s next generation of national contenders. Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are now tied atop Kalshi, while Jon Ossoff has surged into the picture and Kamala Harris remains within striking distance.

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Peggy Flanagan faces Michele Tafoya in Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate election on Tuesday, November 3. Can the former sports broadcaster turn a convincing Republican primary victory into a competitive statewide campaign, or will Minnesota’s long Democratic streak in Senate elections continue? Check out this Minnesota Senate odds and market outlook for 2026.

David Crowley and Tom Tiffany are set to meet in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial election on Tuesday, November 3, after winning the Democratic and Republican nominations. How dramatically did Crowley’s razor-thin primary victory reshape a prediction market that had favored Republicans entering election night?

Darline Graham entered Tuesday’s South Carolina Republican Senate special primary as the prediction-market favorite to replace her late brother, Lindsey Graham, but the race remained competitive entering election night. With early votes now being counted, Graham has opened a meaningful advantage over Ralph Norman and Russell Fry. Check out the latest South Carolina Senate special primary odds and election-market outlook for August 11.