Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms?

Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms?

You can claim $50 in total welcome bonuses right now to trade on the 2026 Midterms using promo code CHECK on Polymarket (for a $25 trading bonus) and promo code ODDSCHECKER on Kalshi (for a $25 bonus credit)!

While traditional commercial sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM are legally prohibited from offering election betting under state gaming regulations, you can legally trade on the 2026 Midterms through federally regulated prediction exchanges.

Unlike sportsbooks that take bets against the house, Kalshi and Polymarket US operate as Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). On these platforms, participants buy and sell event contracts directly against other market participants, trading shares on the balance of power in Washington, Senate races, and House majorities.

Below is your complete guide to claiming both welcome offers, checking state availability, comparing live 2026 Midterms odds across Kalshi and Polymarket, learning how political contract trading works, and reviewing key FAQs.

Midterms Welcome Bonuses: How to Claim Your Trading Credits

How to Claim the Polymarket $25 Promo Code for the 2026 Midterms

Redeeming your welcome bonus on the official US platform takes just five simple steps:

Step 1: CLICK HERE or download the official Polymarket U.S. app

Step 2: Tap “I have a referral code” and enter CHECK

Step 3: Complete signup using your Apple or Google login

Step 4: Add a payment method and deposit at least $10

Step 5: Make your first qualifying trade - your $25 trading bonus is issued automatically (Bonus funds are non‑withdrawable, but profits from trades are yours.)

How to Claim Your Kalshi $25 Promo Code for the 2026 Midterms

Redeeming your welcome offer and unlocking your credit takes just six simple steps:

Step 1: CLICK HERE or Visit Kalshi or download the app and start the sign-up process.

Step 2: Provide your date of birth and enter the Kalshi promo code: ODDSCHECKER.

Step 3: Enter a valid phone number and input the verification code sent to your phone.

Step 4: Accept the Kalshi Terms & Conditions and confirm your personal information, including your Social Security Number (SSN) (required for CFTC-regulated exchanges).

Step 5: Deposit funds using an approved payment method (ACH, debit card, USDC, or wire).

Step 6: Complete $25 in total trades across any available markets (sports, politics, finance, entertainment) to trigger your bonus. Note: multiple smaller trades count toward the $25 total!

Where Are Kalshi and Polymarket Legal?

Because Kalshi and Polymarket operate as federally authorized derivatives exchanges under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) rather than state-licensed sports betting operators, their primary regulatory authority comes from the federal government:

• Federal Regulatory Status: Both exchanges hold CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) status, authorizing them to offer binary event contracts legally at the federal level.
• Kalshi State Availability: Kalshi is accessible to verified adult traders (18+) across the vast majority of U.S. states. While federal courts have upheld congressional and political event contract trading, localized legal reviews (predominantly focused on whether sports event contracts conflict with state gaming laws) have resulted in pending proceedings or restricted access in a handful of states, including Nevada, Massachusetts, and Michigan.
• Polymarket US Availability: Polymarket US functions as a fiat-cleared, CFTC-compliant domestic exchange cleared through Polymarket Clearing. U.S. user verification is completed during residential identity checks in accordance with federal derivatives clearing requirements.

2026 Midterms Odds Comparison: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

On both platforms, political event contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ (or 1% to 99%). Winning contracts settle at $1.00 (100¢), while losing contracts settle at $0.00.

Here is how odds and pricing compare across Kalshi and Polymarket:

How to Trade on the 2026 Midterms with Kalshi and Polymarket

Trading election event contracts functions like trading shares on a stock or commodities exchange:

1. Select Your Election Market: Navigate to the 2026 Midterm Elections hub. In addition to overarching control of Congress, you can trade on individual State Senate race winners (such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Arizona, and Wisconsin), competitive Gubernatorial elections, or specific House district margins.
2. Choose "Yes" or "No": If you expect Democrats to sweep both the House and Senate, you can buy "Yes" shares on the Democratic Sweep market at 64¢. If you anticipate Republicans retaining Senate control, you can purchase "No" shares or buy Republican Senate control shares at 37¢.
3. Set Your Order Size: The total investment equals the contract price multiplied by the number of shares. For example, buying 100 "Yes" shares on Democratic Senate control at 65¢ costs $65.00. If the Democrats win the Senate, your 100 shares settle at $1.00 each ($100.00 total), generating $35.00 in net profit.
4. Hold or Sell Early: You are never locked into your position until Election Day. If polling shifts or race dynamics change in your favor and your 65¢ contract climbs to 82¢, you can sell your shares back to the market immediately to lock in profits.

When Will the 2026 Midterms Be Decided?

The 2026 Midterm elections take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

• Settlement Criteria: Contracts officially resolve once state election boards formally certify the results or when an undisputed mathematical threshold of seats is declared according to the official exchange rulebook.
• Potential Counting Windows: While decisive races are projected on election night, tight battleground states with mail-in ballot verification, recount thresholds, or runoff requirements can take several days or weeks to finalize.
• Automatic Cash Settlement: Once a market officially resolves, winning positions are automatically credited to your cash balance at $1.00 per share, ready for immediate withdrawal or reinvestment.

2026 Midterms Prediction Market FAQs

Why can't I bet on the midterms on DraftKings or FanDuel?

State gaming commissions do not permit licensed sportsbooks to offer wagering on political elections. Kalshi and Polymarket are regulated at the federal level by the CFTC as derivatives contract markets, making their event contracts legally accessible.

What happens if a Senate or House race goes to a recount or runoff?

Contracts remain open and active until the outcome is legally determined and certified. Traders can continue to hold, buy, or sell shares during any recount or runoff period.

Can I trade on individual state races?

Yes. Both exchanges offer individual contract markets on key statewide races, including high-profile U.S. Senate seats, competitive gubernatorial races, and specific legislative balance-of-power outcomes.