South Carolina Senate Odds: Can Annie Andrews Surprise Darline Graham in Unique SC Senate Race?
Annie Andrews is trying to turn one of the most reliably Republican Senate seats in the country into a genuine late-cycle contest against Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Prediction markets still give Graham a substantial advantage with less than a week remaining, but recent polling has shown a much tighter race than the 74%-26% market split suggests. Here are the latest South Carolina Senate odds and what Andrews needs to close the gap before Election Day.
Peter Alexis - October 28, 2026, 4:28 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadSouth Carolina Senate Odds: Annie Andrews Makes Late Push Against Darline Graham
Darline Graham remains the clear leader in the prediction market at 74%, while Andrews has climbed to 26%. The market also shows an estimated Republican margin of approximately 3.6 points, far closer than South Carolina’s recent statewide voting history would normally suggest.
That tightening has developed after Andrews spent much of the race as a significant underdog. Graham inherited an unusual political situation following her brother’s death in July, was appointed to temporarily fill his seat and then survived a competitive Republican primary runoff to become the party’s nominee.
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South Carolina Senate Odds
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Darline Graham | 74% |
Annie Andrews | 26% |
South Carolina Senate Prediction Market
Darline Graham: 74% Chance
Graham enters the final week with a substantial prediction-market advantage, but her position is less dominant than South Carolina’s Republican lean might suggest. The state voted for Donald Trump by roughly 18 points in 2024, yet recent Senate polling has generally shown Graham only a few points ahead of Andrews.
Her path to the nomination was also unusually difficult. Graham defeated Rep. Ralph Norman 52.3%-47.7% in the Republican runoff after a divisive primary, and some of the intraparty frustration from that contest has carried into the general election.
Annie Andrews: 26% Chance
Andrews has moved higher in the market as polling has compressed during October. Recent surveys have ranged from a one-point Graham advantage to a narrow Andrews lead, creating a much more competitive polling picture than the 26% market price alone would imply.
The Democrat has also entered the closing stretch with a financial advantage, holding substantially more campaign cash than Graham in the latest reported filings. That has allowed Andrews to remain competitive on the air while national Republicans have committed significant outside spending to protect a seat that would normally receive far less attention.
Can Annie Andrews Close the Gap Before Election Day?
The clearest argument for Andrews is the difference between the prediction market and the polling. Graham holds nearly three-quarters of the market, but the latest public surveys have generally shown a race separated by only a few percentage points.
One October 25 poll showed Graham ahead 47%-46%, while another survey from the same date had her leading 42%-39%. A Democratic-sponsored poll earlier in the month showed Andrews ahead 45%-44%, reinforcing that the race has repeatedly tested within a narrow range even if the market remains considerably more skeptical of an upset.
South Carolina’s underlying Republican lean remains Graham’s largest advantage. Democrats have struggled in statewide federal races, and Lindsey Graham defeated Jaime Harrison by more than 10 points in 2020 despite that contest also attracting enormous Democratic fundraising and national attention.
The difference in 2026 is the unusual succession battle surrounding the seat. Darline Graham entered electoral politics only after her brother’s death, faced a bruising Republican nomination fight and is running without the decades-long personal political brand that Lindsey Graham brought to previous races.
How Lindsey Graham’s Death Reshaped the Race
Lindsey Graham died in July after winning the Republican primary for another term, forcing South Carolina into an accelerated replacement process. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed his sister Darline to temporarily fill the vacancy, and she subsequently entered the race for the full term.
Darline Graham then defeated Norman in the Republican runoff with support from President Trump. The compressed timeline gave her only a few months to transition from political newcomer to incumbent senator and statewide nominee, creating a fundamentally different general-election environment than Republicans expected earlier in the year.
Andrews has tried to capitalize by presenting herself as the more established candidate on domestic policy, particularly health care and affordability. Graham has emphasized continuity with her brother, support for Trump’s agenda and the argument that South Carolina should maintain Republican representation in the Senate.
South Carolina Senate Election Outlook
The 74%-26% prediction-market split still reflects considerably more confidence in Graham than Andrews, but the final polling has made South Carolina one of the more unusual Senate races entering November 3. A state that would normally begin with a large Republican advantage is instead producing repeated surveys with margins in the low single digits.
That leaves a clear tension between the two indicators heading into Election Day. Prediction traders continue to price Graham well ahead, while public polling suggests Andrews has narrowed the race enough that the final turnout composition could matter considerably more than South Carolina’s recent statewide results initially implied.
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