Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms?

Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms?

Yes. You can't place a midterm bet with a US sportsbook, but you can trade on the 2026 midterms through two federally regulated prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket US. Both let you buy contracts on which party wins the House and the Senate, plus hundreds of individual Senate, House and governor races, right up to Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.

New users can claim a welcome bonus on each platform. Use Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER and Polymarket promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker.

Why sportsbooks don't offer midterm betting

US sportsbooks are licensed by state gaming regulators, and those licenses cover sporting events. Elections fall outside them, so no legal sportsbook app in any state will take a bet on who controls Congress. That's why you won't find a politics tab on a sportsbook app, even in a big election year.

How prediction markets make it legal

Kalshi and Polymarket US aren't sportsbooks. They're exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency that oversees futures markets. Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you buy and sell event contracts with other traders.

Every contract asks a yes-or-no question, such as "Will Democrats win the House?" Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢, and the price works as a rough probability: a contract at 65¢ means the market sees about a 65% chance. If you're right, each contract pays $1. If you're wrong, it pays nothing.

Kalshi won its court fight over the right to list contracts on control of Congress, and most of the state-level legal disputes around prediction markets since then have been about sports, not elections. Polymarket returned to American users in January 2026 through Polymarket US, its CFTC-regulated exchange.

What you can bet on

• House control: which party wins a majority of the 435 seats. It takes 218 to control the chamber.
• Senate control: which party runs the Senate after the 35 races on this year's ballot.
• Balance of power: combined outcomes, such as one party sweeping both chambers or a split Congress.
• Seat totals: how many Senate seats each party ends up holding.
• Individual races: Senate contests in states such as Texas, Maine, Michigan and Ohio, plus governor races and ballot measures.

Polymarket alone lists more than 560 markets across the 2026 midterms.

Where the midterm odds stand

Prices as of October 30, 2026. They move with every poll, news story and trade, so check the live market before you buy.

You can compare these prices with every other political market on our US politics odds page, and our 2026 midterms odds guide covers the House, Senate and key races in more depth.

Who can sign up

Both platforms are open to adults in eligible US states, and you'll verify your identity when you register. Welcome offer eligibility varies by state, and the Polymarket bonus isn't available in Nevada. Our guide to where you can bet on the 2026 midterms near you covers the state rules in more detail.

Claim a bonus before Election Day

Kalshi: sign up through oddschecker with promo code ODDSCHECKER to get a $25 bonus credit once you complete your qualifying trades.

Polymarket: sign up through oddschecker with promo code CHECK to get a $25 trading bonus after your first deposit and trade.

Both bonuses can be used on midterm markets, so an account opened today can be trading on the House and Senate well before polls close.

Midterm betting FAQs

Is it legal to bet on the midterms?

Trading on midterm outcomes is legal through CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, as long as you meet their age and state eligibility rules. State-licensed sportsbooks can't offer election betting.

Can I bet on the midterms with a sportsbook?

No. Sportsbook licenses only cover sports, so you'll need a prediction market account to trade on the election.

When do midterm markets pay out?

Each market has its own settlement rules, listed on the market page. Kalshi's Senate control market, for example, settles on media consensus about which party won. If there's no clear consensus, it uses the party of the Senate's president pro tempore on February 1, 2027.

Can I sell my position before the result?

Yes. On both platforms you can sell contracts at the current market price any time before settlement, which lets you lock in a profit or cut a loss as the odds move.

When are the 2026 midterms?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot, and early voting is already underway in many states.

How much money is being traded on the midterms?

A lot. CNN reported in late October that more than $1.4 billion had been traded on prediction markets tied to the midterms. On Kalshi alone, the House control market had passed $150 million in volume by October 30.

Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?

They measure different things. Polls ask voters what they plan to do, while market prices show where traders are putting their money. Markets react faster to news, but they can also run ahead of the polls: in Texas, traders price Democrat James Talarico at around 69% even though recent polls show the race within two or three points.

Can I bet on the midterms outside the US?

This guide covers US prediction markets. Rules elsewhere differ, and many sportsbooks outside the US do take political bets, so check what's legal where you live.

Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket as of October 30, 2026, and change constantly. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.