Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms with Kalshi?
A complete guide to trading the 2026 midterm elections on Kalshi. Discover how the CFTC-regulated prediction exchange works, view trader odds for House and Senate control, and learn how to claim a $25 sign-up bonus with promo code ODDSCHECKER.
Sam Eaton - October 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadCan You Bet on the 2026 Midterms with Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and it lists markets on every major part of the 2026 midterms: House control, Senate control, the overall balance of power, seat totals and dozens of individual races. Trading runs right up to Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
New users can get a $25 bonus credit with Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER when they sign up through oddschecker.
Why Kalshi can List Election Markets
Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It went to court for the right to list contracts on control of Congress and won, which made it one of the first places Americans could legally trade on elections. Most of the state legal challenges facing prediction markets since then have focused on sports contracts rather than politics.
On Kalshi you aren't betting against a bookmaker. You buy Yes or No contracts from other traders, priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and every winning contract pays $1.
Kalshi Midterm Odds
Kalshi's two flagship midterm markets have drawn serious money. As of October 31, the House control market had traded about $170 million and the Senate control market about $111 million.
Market | Kalshi Odds |
|---|---|
Democrats win the House | 92% |
Republicans win the House | 8% |
Democrats win the Senate | 69% |
Republicans win the Senate | 31% |
Democrats win both chambers | 65% |
Democratic House, Republican Senate | 28% |
Republicans win both chambers | 9% |
Republican House, Democratic Senate | 1% |
Prices as of October 31, 2026. Kalshi prices move constantly, so check the live market before trading.
What does Kalshi say about the Key Senate Races?
Republicans hold the Senate 53-47, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. Kalshi traders favor the Democratic candidate in each of the most-watched races:
- Texas: James Talarico (D) 71%, Ken Paxton (R) 29% (October 30)
- Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 75%, Mike Rogers (R) 25% (October 30)
- Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) 70%, Jon Husted (R) 30% (October 30)
- Maine: Troy Jackson (D) 68%, Susan Collins (R) 32% (October 30)
Compare the full board on our US politics odds page, and read our Maine Senate odds breakdown for more on one of the closest races.
Other Kalshi Midterm Markets
- Individual Senate races. Kalshi highlights Texas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa, South Carolina and Kansas as the races most likely to decide control. Texas, where James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R), is the most traded competitive race on the platform.
- Seat totals. Trade on how many Senate seats each party holds after the election, which pays off if you have a view on the size of the result rather than just the winner.
- National House vote margin. Markets on how big the winning party's margin will be in the national vote.
- Governor races across the states holding elections this year.
How Kalshi Settles Midterm Markets
Every Kalshi market lists its settlement rules on the market page. The Senate control market settles on media consensus about which party won. If there's no clear consensus, it uses the party of the Senate's president pro tempore on February 1, 2027. In a close year that matters: your payout might not arrive on election night.
You don't have to hold to the end, though. Kalshi lets you sell your contracts at the current price whenever the market is open.
Who can use Kalshi
Kalshi is open to US residents aged 18 and over in eligible states, and you'll verify your identity when you sign up. Bonus eligibility varies by state. Our guide to where you can bet on the 2026 midterms near you has more detail.
Claim the Kalshi promo code
sign up through oddschecker and enter ODDSCHECKER in the promo code field. Once you reach the qualifying trading volume, Kalshi adds a $25 bonus credit you can put toward any market, including the midterms.
Kalshi midterms FAQs
Is it legal to bet on elections with Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the CFTC and is allowed to list contracts on control of Congress. Age and state eligibility rules apply.
Is Kalshi a sportsbook?
No. It's a regulated exchange where traders buy and sell event contracts with each other. That's why it can offer election markets when sportsbooks can't.
What's the Kalshi promo code for the midterms?
The code is ODDSCHECKER. Enter it at sign-up through oddschecker to unlock a $25 bonus credit after your qualifying trades.
Can I cash out before the result?
Yes. You can sell your contracts at the market price at any point before settlement.
What are the odds the Senate flips in 2026?
Kalshi gives Democrats about a 65% chance of taking the Senate as of October 29, so traders see a flip as more likely than not. Republicans are priced at about 35% to hold on.
Can I refer a friend to Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi runs a referral program for existing users, and our Kalshi invite code guide explains how it works.
When are the 2026 midterms?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Odds are from Kalshi as of October 31, 2026, and change constantly. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange open to users 18 and over in eligible states. Promo terms apply. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
