How to Bet on the Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs Paxton
Discover how to legally bet on the 2026 Texas Senate race between James Talarico (D) and Ken Paxton (R). Compare live contract odds on Kalshi and Polymarket US, learn how to trade victory margins, and claim up to $50 in bonuses with promo codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK before Election Day.
Sam Eaton - November 2, 2026, 8:00 AM EST
3 Minute ReadHow to Bet on the Texas Senate Race: Talarico vs Paxton
To bet on the Texas Senate race, open an account with Kalshi or Polymarket US, find the Texas Senate winner market and buy Yes contracts on James Talarico (D) or Ken Paxton (R). Each winning contract pays $1. As of November 2, Talarico trades at about 74¢ and Paxton at about 26¢.
New users get a bonus on both platforms: Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER and Polymarket promo code CHECK, available when you sign up through oddschecker.
Step 1: Choose Kalshi or Polymarket
Both list the Texas Senate race. Kalshi adds a margin market, so you can trade on how close the result will be as well as who wins. Polymarket US lets you place limit orders on its order book and track live vote counts on election night through its Midterms Hub. Many traders use both and buy wherever the price is better.
Not sure which exchange suits your trading style best? Check out our complete Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison guide to see how both platforms stack up on fees, liquidity, and election-night tools.
Step 2: Sign up and claim your bonus
- Kalshi: enter promo code ODDSCHECKER at sign-up, verify your phone and ID, and get a $25 bonus credit once you reach the qualifying trading volume.
- Polymarket: tap "I have a referral code", enter CHECK, then make your first deposit and trade to unlock a $25 trading bonus. Not available in Nevada.
Step 3: Find the Texas Senate market
On Kalshi, go to Elections and look for the Texas Senate winner market. On Polymarket US, open the Midterms Hub and click Texas on the map or find it under key races.
Step 4: Pick your side and work out the payout
Your trade | Cost for 100 contracts | Return if right | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
Talarico at 69¢ | $74 | $100 | $26 |
Paxton at 32¢ | $26 | $100 | $74 |
Backing Paxton costs less and pays more because the market sees him as the underdog. Backing Talarico pays less but the market rates it as more likely.
Step 5: Consider the margin market
If you think the race will be close but aren't sure who wins, Kalshi's margin market lets you trade on the size of the victory. As of November 2, traders were pricing a Talarico win of about 2.3 points, with a Talarico win by two points or more at 65% and a Paxton win by two or more at 36%.
Step 6: Manage your trade
You can sell your contracts at the current price at any time before the market settles. Texas polls close on the evening of November 3, and prices will move fast as results come in.
Tips for betting on the Texas Senate race
- Watch the polls as well as the price. A Marist poll from October 8-11 had Talarico ahead by just two points.
- Remember the history. Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988, which is the main argument for Paxton backers.
- Compare prices. Kalshi and Polymarket often differ by a cent or two. Our US politics odds page helps you keep track.
Texas Senate betting FAQs
Can you legally bet on the Texas Senate race?
You can trade on it through CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, subject to their age and state rules. Sportsbooks can't offer election betting.
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
James Talarico (D), at about 74% as of November 2.
When does the Texas Senate market settle?
Each market has its own rules on the market page. Most settle once major media outlets call the race, or on certification if the result is disputed.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
