2026 Midterm Odds: Who Will Win the House and Senate?
Discover who is favored to win Congress on Election Day 2026. Explore real-time prediction market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket and claim up to $50 in welcome bonuses with promo codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK before the polls close.
Sam Eaton - November 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
3 Minute Read2026 Midterm Odds: Who Will Win the House and Senate?
Democrats are favored to win both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms. As of November 3, prediction markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of winning the House and about a 76% chance of winning the Senate. Republicans are priced at around 6% to keep the House and 24% to keep the Senate.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. You can trade these odds on Kalshi and Polymarket US, with a welcome bonus on each: Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER and Polymarket promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker.
Who will win the House in 2026? Odds
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 94% | 95% |
Republicans | 6% | 6% |
All 435 House seats are on the ballot and 218 wins a majority. Kalshi's House market opened on May 27 with Democrats at 76%, and their price has climbed steadily since. It is the biggest midterm market on Kalshi, with more than $236 million traded by November 3.
History is part of the story. The president's party has lost House seats in all but a handful of midterms since World War II, and traders have priced Democrats as favorites from the start.
Who will win the Senate in 2026? Odds
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 76% | 77% |
Republicans | 24% | 24% |
The Senate is much closer. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and with Vice President JD Vance breaking any 50-50 tie, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. About $170 million had been traded on Kalshi's Senate control market by November 3.
Balance of power odds
Outcome | Kalshi |
|---|---|
Democrats win both chambers | 75% |
Democratic House, Republican Senate | 20% |
Republicans win both chambers | 6% |
Republican House, Democratic Senate | 1% |
Key Senate race odds
These are the races Kalshi traders see as most likely to decide the Senate, with the latest prices we've seen:
State | Matchup | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) | Talarico 74% (Nov 3) | Talarico 75% (Nov 3) |
Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) | El-Sayed 81% (Nov 3) | El-Sayed 81% (Nov 3) |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) | Brown 71% (Nov 3) | Brown 72% (Nov 3) |
Maine | Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) | Jackson 73% (Nov 3) | Jackson 74% (Nov 3) |
Kalshi also flags Iowa, South Carolina and Kansas as races that could matter if the night turns into a bigger swing. For more on one of the closest contests, read our Maine Senate odds breakdown.
Odds vs polls
Market prices and polls don't always line up. In Texas, Michigan and Maine, recent Marist polls had the Democratic candidate ahead by just two points, yet the markets price each of them at 73% to 81%. Traders are weighing more than the latest poll: fundraising, early voting, past polling misses and the national environment all feed into the price. That gap is also why some traders see value on the other side.
How to bet on the midterm odds
Sportsbooks can't take election bets, so you'll need a CFTC-regulated prediction market:
- Kalshi: sign up through oddschecker with promo code ODDSCHECKER for a $25 bonus credit after your qualifying trades.
- Polymarket US: sign up through oddschecker with promo code CHECK for a $25 trading bonus after your first deposit and trade (not available in Nevada).
Each contract pays $1 if you're right. Buying Democrats to win the Senate at 74¢ means a 26¢ profit per contract if they do. Compare these prices with the rest of the political board on our US politics odds page.
2026 midterm odds FAQs
Who will win the House in 2026, according to the odds?
Democrats, at about 94% on Kalshi and 95% on Polymarket as of November 3.
Who will win the Senate in 2026, according to the odds?
Democrats are favored at about 76%. Republicans are priced at about 24% to keep control.
What are the odds the Senate flips?
The same as the Democratic price above: about 74%. A flip needs a net Democratic gain of four seats.
What are the odds Republicans keep the House?
About 6% on Kalshi and 6% on Polymarket.
When are the midterms?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
Where can I bet on the midterms?
On Kalshi or Polymarket US, subject to state eligibility. Our guide to where you can bet on the midterms near you explains the rules.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices reflect traders' views, not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
