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With Jason Dufner bagging his second victory in three starts at last week’s Byron Nelson Championship, the PGA tour heads to Fort Worth for the annual Crowne Plaza Invitational. The host course is the old-style classic Colonial Country Club which measures 7,204 yards and demands the ability to shape the ball off the tee.

Clearly experience pays dividends on this track. Recent winners like Toms, Stricker and Mickelson are all firmly in the ‘veteran’ category now, and had played a considerable number of rounds between them at Colonial CC before notching their respective wins here.

I’ve always had my eye on a particular trend here which relates to the Masters tournament. Intriguingly, 11 out of the last 12 winners here had finished inside the top-42 in that year’s Masters tournament. Going back further, there are very few players who have won here in the last 40 years who hadn’t achieved such a finish at Augusta in the year of their victory here. If we’re to place emphasis on this stat, this narrows the field down to 21 qualifying players who I have taken a good look at this week.

The first player to catch my eye is joint-favourite Zach Johnson. I try not to make a habit of backing favourites in any golf tournament, but sometimes you have to grit your teeth and go with your instincts. Johnson ticks all the boxes this week. He has plenty of experience at Colonial and won here two years ago. He followed up his win with a 4th place finish last year. He holds the 72-hole scoring record at Colonial. He finished tied for 32nd in this year’s Masters and has finished runner-up in two of his last three tournaments. Simply put, I would be very surprised if Zach doesn’t go close this week.

Fast-approaching ‘veteran’ status is 37 year-old Bo Van Pelt. Although Van Pelt has career earnings of over $16 million, few people would look at Van Pelt as being a true success story of US golf, having only notched a single PGA tour victory in his career. It’s not too late for Van Pelt to become a regular winner however, and he certainly has the game to do so being one of the best drivers & putters on tour. Van Pelt fits the Masters trend that we mentioned earlier, he finished 7th in his last tournament start, and has a very tidy looking form trajectory at Colonial, reading 70-59-10-3.

Although he might not be much of a fan-favourite in light of his infuriating pre-shot routine, Kevin Na has become a rather impressive player. The 28 year-old has notched no less than five top-10 finishes already in 2012, the latest coming at the tough tree-lined TPC Sawgrass where he could have finished even better than his eventual tie for 7th. Na qualifies for the Masters trend after finishing 12th this year, and he certainly knows his way around Colonial having finished inside the top-10 here in both 2007 & 2009.

It’s been 11 years since a European last won at Colonial (Sergio Garcia in 2001), but I’m going to give the nod to Henrik Stenson this week, who has been hinting at a return to form in recent months. Stenson finished tied for 15th in his last tournament start at The Players Championship and he posted his first top-5 finish in America for three years at the Puerto Rico Open back in March. Stenson’s form at Colonial is good, if not sensational, having finished 27th and 44th in the last two years. However, both of these appearances came amidst pretty poor form, so there’s every reason to expect better this week.

South African Tim Clark may have missed the cut in this year’s Masters, but it would seem that he teed it up at Augusta despite not having recovered fully from the elbow injury which has plagued him for over a year. The signs are there that the worst of his injury troubles are behind him, having finished tied for 25th in his last start at The Players Championship. What draws me to Clark this week is his superb record at Colonial where he has finished runner-up in two of his last three starts. At a triple-figure price, I’m prepared to take a chance on him this week.

After the excitement of the ‘fifth major’, it’s back to the daily grind for the PGA tour, and this week’s venue is TPC Four Seasons for the Byron Nelson Championship. Recent winners here have been a mix of youngsters (Jason Day, Keegan Bradley) and experienced tour pros (Scott Verplank, Rory Sabbatini), with course form of varying importance over the years.

What would seem to be necessary since the 2008 course changes is reasonable distance off the tee and the ability to handle windy conditions. The latter would point us in the direction of those with Texas connections (such as recent winners Verplank, Day and Sabbatini), as well as those who have previously performed well in the Lone Star State.

With three top-5 finishes in his last six starts, Ernie Els is definitely showing signs that he’s getting back to his best. Despite disappointing at TPC Sawgrass last week, Els ranks 13th on tour in scoring average which shows how consistent his game has been in 2012. The South African has sat out this event for the last few years, but his last three appearances at TPC Four Seasons read 7-10-13, so he’s clearly comfortable on this track, and he looks well-equipped to bag his 19th PGA tour victory.

Still awaiting his maiden PGA tour victory is Englishman Brian Davis. Like Els, Davis is showing signs of his very best form, and if he’s ever going to notch that elusive first win, you’d think it should be right about now. Despite missing the cut here in each of the last two years, Davis was runner-up to Rory Sabbatini three years ago, so he’ll have some positive memories of TPC Four Seasons. Davis’ strong performance at the Wells Fargo Championship was down to his putting, where he led the field in Putts per GIR. Last week, on the other hand, Davis’ ball-striking was very good, and he was let down by the putter. If Davis can put both things together this week, he won’t be far away.

With each of the last two winners being in their 20s and bagging their maiden titles here, Jeff Overton looks a reasonable contender to do the very same. Overton’s form has been up and down in 2012, but one of the highlights is a top-5 finish in Texas at the recent Shell Houston Open. Overton can boast 2nd and 8th place finishes in his last two starts here, and he also puts a strong tick in the distance-off-the-tee box, making him a solid each-way bet this week.

One of the most talented youngsters on the PGA tour is South Korean Seung-Yul Noh. At the age of 20, Noh got through Q-school to earn his PGA tour playing rights for 2012, and he seems to be making the most of it with four top-20 finishes to his name so far. Noh’s highest PGA tour finish came in his last tournament start at Quail Hollow where he finished tied for 9th in a strong field. The big-hitting rookie has the right type of game to put in another strong showing this week.

Last up, Harrison Frazar is a Texan through and through. Born and bred just a stone’s throw away from here, Frazar bagged his maiden PGA tour title just under a year ago, and he has shown signs of tournament winning form already in 2012 with top-5 finishes in both of the Hawaiian events where windy conditions are the norm. Frazar has some pretty useful progressive form at TPC Four Seasons with his last three starts reading 45-16-14, and the 40 year-old can draw positives from a respectable showing at Sawgrass last week.

Nine of the world’s top-10 golfers are in action this week as the PGA tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for the Players Championship. The ‘fifth major’ takes place, as ever, at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass, a course most well-known for the treacherous par-3 17th hole.

Whilst it’s easy to overrate the importance of ‘course form’ in many events (just look at D.A. Points’ record at Quail Hollow prior to last week), there are certain tracks that require course knowledge and fit a certain type of player. The Stadium Course would seem to be one such course, with every winner since 2003 having finished 17th or better in a previous visit to Sawgrass.

Good ball strikers generally fit the bill at Sawgrass, with many tough driving holes and tricky approaches. Furthermore, those who are able to get up and down when they have missed the green (‘scrambling’ as it is known) often go well here.

One of the very finest scramblers on tour is Steve Stricker. The veteran has enjoyed a fantastic three years on the PGA tour, bagging no less than eight victories over this period, and the 45-year-old is showing no real signs of slowing down, despite various minor injury problems. Stricker finished 6th in his last tournament start at the Zurich Classic (taking place at the Pete Dye-designed TPC Louisiana), and he has some very handy looking progressive form at the Stadium Course with his form over the last three years reading C-22-12.

One of the younger generation on the PGA tour, from whom many are expecting big things, is Jason Day. The Aussie can take encouragement from the good record of his fellow countrymen at TPC Sawgrass (Adam Scott, Greg Norman and Steve Elkington are all previous winners here). Although the 24-year-old has had injury problems of his own this year, which forced him to withdraw from the Masters, Day reports that the pain is gone, and proved he’s over the niggles by finishing in the top-10 last week at the Wells Fargo Championship. Having missed the cut in his Players debut in 2010, Day showed what he is capable of last year, finishing in a tie for 6th.

It’s been a testing couple of years for Ernie Els, but the three-time major winner is showing vintage form this year. The only thing missing from Ernie’s return to form is a win. In his last start, Els was pipped to the post by Jason Dufner in a tense playoff, and the South African has also come close in this year’s Transitions Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although Els’ form at Sawgrass in recent years doesn’t jump off the page, he did post top-10 finishes here in both 2006 and 2008, and with his excellent ball striking coupled with his improved putting, Els has all the tools to put in a strong showing this week.

If we’re looking for a course expert this week, there are few players who can boast a record as good as Ben Crane’s at the Stadium Course. Over the last four years, Crane’s record here reads 6-5-4-45. Last year’s slight disappointment can be attributed to a dreadful second round, but this was his only over-par round throughout the tournament. Whilst Crane’s form has been a tad patchy in 2012, his second round 64 last week is his second best round of the year, and he’ll take confidence from that round into this week, on a course he loves.

With European winners here in two of the last four years, it would be wise to keep an eye on the European contigent, and Peter Hanson catches my eye this week. The Swede put in a stellar performance in this year’s Masters finishing in a tie for 3rd. Although he may have been disappointed not to have held out for his maiden major victory, he didn’t disgrace himself by any means amidst the pressures of a Sunday in the final pairing. Hanson made his Players Championship debut last year, and came here on the back of four missed cuts, which makes his tie for 19th a rather impressive achievement. Hanson heads up the PGA tour Ball Striking rankings, and won’t be intimidated by the big stage.

It looks like a wide open event this week at the Open de Espana, and with the course being used in rotation in the last few years it takes some delving to find out the nuggets of form. This year we are back at the Real Club de Golf de Sevilla, and I think I've found some hidden gems, so get your value sombreros on and read ahead.

Rhys Davies is a hard player to work out or catch right but his odds have been gradually moving in the wrong direction in recent weeks and I think now could be time the cash in. He is a winner in Spain (2009 Fred Olsen Challenge de Espana), and another huge positive is that he has some form at the course with a T6 in the Open de Andalucia (also in 2009). Recent form-wise, he didn't play terribly on the Asian swing with 2 made cuts from 2 appearances, and shot 3 sub-70 rounds during this time. He also has a recent T10 in India, and a T3 at the Iskandar Johor Open at the back end of last season. Seeing as that last top-5 came after 3 missed cuts and he is currently in better form, combined with being a winner in this region and form at this course, I think he is worth an each way play at 100/1.

With no wins since 2004, David Lynn is the consummate journeyman on tour, but that could all be set to change this week. He has been playing some great golf for a while now, having a fine 2011 with five top-6 finishes and finishing 35th in the Race to Dubai. Crucially, he seems to save his best golf for Spain and Portugal: his recent finishes in the region include a T4 at the Open de Andalucia in March, and in 2011 a T3 at the Portugal Masters and a T2 at the Iberdrola Open. He also boasts a T4 at the course, from the 2008 Open de Espana. He is a player who seems to thrive in the same conditions and at the same courses again and again, so the form is solid and the 80/1 looks like a great price on the Englishman.

Alvaro Velasco was firmly on the 'one to watch' list for last year, having won twice on the Challenge Tour the previous year and topping the money list, however he didn't quite live up to the hype with just one top 10 finish all season. With a few odd exceptions he does seem to play his best golf in his home country, so I think he is worth a small play at big value odds this week. Last year he finished T15 in this tournament and T23 at the Open de Andalucia, in 2010 he notched up two T13 finishes on main tour events in Spain, and a win at the Fred Olsen Challenge de Espana on the Challenge Tour. What's more, he is coming off his best finish for a long while in a T9 at the Sicilian Open, so it looks like the stars could well be aligning for an emotional win for Alvaro and a huge boost to our betting bank.

I’m going to delve into the Top Spaniard market now, after having some minor success in backing the home players on the Asian swing. Eduardo de la Riva seems to have really stepped up a level recently, and has finish T3 on his last two starts in his home country. He also has some form at the course, with a T18 at the 2008 Open de España, so with new found confidence I am sure he can improve on this finish and threaten the top 4 places available in this market, if not win at 25/1.

After an exciting playoff finale saw Jason Dufner bag his maiden PGA tour victory last week, the next stop for the PGA tour is Quail Hollow in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Wells Fargo Championship.

The course is amongst the tougher tracks on the PGA, consistently ranking as the toughest in terms of 'Proximity to Hole'. In a nutshell, this means that players find it harder to hit their approach shots as close as they might be used to. For this reason, it's worth looking at players who are solid in the distance-putting statistics. Putting stats from 20-25' and beyond 25' are worth looking at with recent winners performing well in this area. Measuring 7,442 yards in total, reasonable distance off the tee is a bonus here too (albeit not essential as proven by David Toms and Jim Furyk who are both winners here).

Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods head up the betting which is no great surprise, but it's also no great surprise that I will be swerving the pair. Whilst McIlroy won here in sensational style back in 2010, he missed the cut here last year and was, frankly, very disappointing in this year's Masters, which is his last outing. Tiger Woods has been making positive noises about the state of his game, but he still has plenty to prove before I'm going to be eager to get involved at a single figure price.

Nestled in just behind these two is Phil Mickelson who put in a very strong performance at the Masters, only to be ruined by one bad hole in the final round. With one win to his name and three other top-5 finishes so far in 2012, he's clearly doing something right, and will be eager to add Quail Hollow to the long list of venues where he has won on the PGA tour. Mickelson is one of the best distance putters around and has only finished outside the top-10 once in last five appearances at Quail Hollow.

Another experienced campaigner that catches my eye is 41-year-old Jim Furyk. Although Furyk lacks a little in the way of distance off the tee, the 2003 US Open winner copes admirably on tough tracks that demand a level head and good scrambling skills. Furyk is past champion here at Quail Hollow (in 2006) and he's been quietly creeping back into form over the last couple of months, finishing 11th or better in each of his last four starts.

If there was ever a player to dispel the myth that you need to be big hitter to win on long tracks, that man is Zach Johnson who won the 2007 Masters on a longer course than this. Johnson came to Quail Hollow on the back of a pair of missed cuts last year, but finished in an impressive tie for 6th. This time around, current form looks much more promising, having finished runner-up to Carl Pettersson in his last tournament start at the RBC Heritage. Johnson is renowned for his tidy short game and he currently ranks 11th on tour in Scoring Average.

Last year's runner-up Jonathan Byrd seems to have been overlooked by the bookies somewhat. Byrd made the cut for the first time at the Masters a few weeks ago, and even better than that, he finished inside the top-30, so his current form is actually better than it was this time last year where he was pipped to the post by college buddy Lucas Glover in a playoff. Byrd is a very solid distance putter, ranking 13th on tour in putting over 25′ and the 34-year-old has five PGA tour wins to his name to date.

If distance off the tee is a concern this week, then Robert Garrigus should have good claims as he ranks 3rd on tour in Driving Distance. However, Garrigus is no one-trick pony - he ranks 9th on tour in both Greens in Regulation and putting over 25′. What I particularly like about Garrigus is his form on tough courses. He finished runner-up in the 2010 Fedex St Jude Classic, 3rd at last year's US Open, and, most importantly, tied for 9th here last year.