05/05/2012 15:10
2000 Guineas
The anger of the Gods throughout April leaves us in the unusual situation that the opening Classics of the season will be run on soft ground at Newmarket this weekend. In recent memory, the only 2000 Guineas to be run with soft in the going description was in 1998, when it was won on good to soft by King Of Kings, an Aidan O'Brien-trained colt by a sire in Sadler's Wells whose progeny usually excelled over further than a mile. Due to a career-ending injury in the Derby, we never found out King Of Kings's ideal trip, but further Guineas victories for Entrepreneur and Refuse To Bend leaves us in no doubt of Sadler's Wells's ability to sire milers.
The comparison between King Of Kings and Camelot is a dubious one, but when analysing the 7/4 favourite it's hard to get away from the fact that amongst all the top class horses sired by Sadler's Wells's son - the late Montjeu - precisely none have excelled over a mile once turning three. Camelot was Montjeu's fourth Racing Post Trophy winner after Motivator, Authorized and St Nicholas Abbey - 12f horses all and proof that winning over 1m on autumn ground at 2 is no stepping stone to a Guineas. On quick ground Camelot would be taken on with confidence, but with the emphasis now potentially more on stamina than speed it's hard to be as bullish. He was visually impressive at Doncaster but the form is ropey and he's easily passed over at the current price. The Derby will be another story.
Camelot's stablemate Power had a great 2yo campaign and should train on, but he's been described as a lazy type and the vibes suggest he'll go the route of Oratorio and Duke Of Marmalade in performing credibly at Newmarket but improving through the season. Camelot's presence adds credence to this.
Craven winner Trumpet Major heads Richard Hannon's quartet, and having proved he's trained on from an already high class level of 2yo form holds solid credentials. The worry for him is the ground, as he looked unhappy on the official good to soft last month and flounded in the Solario on soft at Sandown last year. The fact he was still able to win the Craven bodes extremely well for a return to fast going but lots of cut isn't what he wants. Of his others, Bronterre and Redact have the look of sprinters but Coupe De Ville might get in the money at a big price. If one puts his reappearance flop over 10f down to stamina, which is plausible, last year's Tattersalls 2yo Trophy victory over 7f on the Rowley Mile was achieved in spite of a stopping mid-race incident and there's reason to believe he will act on soft. A further point to mention regarding Hannon is that these four were all behind the injured Harbour Watch in the trainer's pecking order.
The French bring a three-pronged assault; Mikel Delzangles won this with Makfi in 2010 and asked about Hermival he stated that they only have their sires in common. Hermival was beaten soundly by French Fifteen and Abtaal in the Prix Djebel - the former reversing 2yo form and there looks little between them at this stage of their career, which anchors the enthusiasm for either. Abtaal is probably the best prospect of the three, but it will be likely over further than a mile and it might be they are only running here to avoid Dabirsim in the Poulains.
Top Offer was well-backed for this in the spring, and hasn't run purely because of the ground. Though he may prove best on quick going, there's nothing to say he won't act on soft and his inexperience has pushed him out to a not-unappealing price for one so clearly well regarded. Of the other British hopes, Fencing looks like he wants further and Caspar Netscher didn't convince when asked to stretch in the Greenham. Jeremy Noseda has supplemented Talwar, and the soft ground is right up his street based on the dominant Solario win at Sandown last year. He lost his way after that but has proved he's trained on, though plenty more is needed.
This Guineas has the look of a trappy race, but there is a gift horse looking us right in the face in the shape of Born To Sea. This is the final foal of probably the greatest broodmare in European racing history in Urban Sea - the Arc winner who has produced two of the best racehorses of a generation in Galileo and Sea The Stars. The latter is a three-parts brother to Born To Sea, with sires both by Green Desert. Born To Sea's sire Invincible Spirit was a blue-blooded sprinter, and more of a speed influence than Sea The Stars's sire Cape Cross, and as such Born To Sea won't be heading to Epsom from here - a mile is his trip.
It's easy to get caught up in bloodlines so we'll turn to trainer John Oxx, a man with few peers in the game and a 28% strike-rate in the UK since 1995. The careers of Sinndar, Azamour and Sea The Stars were an absolute masterclass in letting a colt shape their future and if Oxx declares himself satisfied that Born To Sea can do himself justice in this race there can be few doubters. The horse was precocious enough to be ready to run in July last year and it was only slight setbacks that kept him off until September, when he won a 6f Listed race on debut. Much was made of the defeat by Nephrite next time out, but he tore a muscle and was lame post-race, so we can forgive this. To watch the gangly, immature juvenile perform at this level was extremely encouraging and we know what happened to Sea The Stars with a winter on his back.
Oxx has declared himself unconcerned with the going and happy with his preparation: "Everything has gone very well with him and he's had a trouble-free run. He's enjoyed a good winter, hasn't missed any time at all since mid-December and he's as fit as we can have him for his first run." If this isn't an endorsement from the cautious trainer then nothing is, and in a renewal where the favourite is a 12f horse in-waiting and the rest are nothing to be afraid of, at 9/1 it's time to load up on the latest, and final, in the production line of Urban Sea's champions.
Dionysus
3pts Born To Sea @ 9/1
LOST -3pts