Latest Specials Tips

The first live show of The Voice is this weekend, so we can now get involved with some confidence as the public are far easier to second guess than the judges.

You have to wonder whether the hearing of Sir Tom Jones has started to fade in his old age as Samuel Buttery and Matt And Sueleen both offer little and were lucky to progress through the battle round. Viewers will undoubtedly set the Welshman right. 1/2 on either being booted out next looks ultra-safe, with M and S probably deserving their position as slight favourites. This leaves Ruth Brown as Tom’s likely representative in the final four. It’s hard to see an alternative, so 8/1 with one of the bookies offering an each-way payout is worth taking.

Team Will will also be a man down come Sunday night and again it’s difficult to look past the favourite who in this case is Tyler James at 6/4. Will has already made it clear that Jaz is his chosen one, even though I doubt the public will be as keen as the judges and producers have been. Joelle looks a run-of-the-mill Treyc Cohen/Rachel Adedeji type so 9/1 on Sophie Griffin to be the surprise winner from this section is worth a look. Don’t let the name of the programme fool you – this isn’t purely about the voice and is ultimately a popularity contest like X-Factor and she’d be beating Jaz and Joelle hands down from that perspective.

A week on it’ll be Team Jessie and Danny who get the chance to impress and, as things stand, that’s where the winner is most likely to come from. In Jessie’s group, Ruth-Ann and Cassius are instantly forgettable, it’s been hard to warm to Toni so far and it’s difficult to see the mums and grannies picking up their phones for Vince, so Becky looks a worthy favourite at 11/8.

Danny’s group is undoubtedly the toughest of the four and should be heading the winning manager market (11/4 at the time of writing). Bo is very current but the winner is most likely to be one of Max Milner or David Julian and better than 11/2 that one of the pair proves to be The Voice is worth a play.

The importance of the draw at the Eurovision Song Contest can't be overplayed. The last time a song won from outside the final eight songs was way back in 2004 so backing anything too heavily before this is known is a risky strategy. Fortunately, two songs that do have a good chance of contending are automatic finalists and have been handed useful performing positions of 19 and 20 already.

The first is Spain who have entered probably the most impressive singer in this year's contest. The song is topping fan polls and is coming across well in rehearsal. There is a lingering doubt over Spain's ability to pick up votes from across the continent, given their dismal results in past events, but Pastora Soler is a cut above anything I can remember them entering. Taking 25/1 is an option but I'm attracted more to the 11/8 on a top 10 finish and 4/6 on securing the douze points from Portugal for a third successive year.

Germany is the other 'big 5' member that can benefit from a late draw. Contrasting nicely with Spain who'll be on just before, to me this edges Serbia and Estonia as the male ballad most likely to appeal Europe-wide to viewers and juries alike. As such, 11/2 on a top four finish appeals while a solid case can also be made for combining Spain and Germany at 5/2 to be the top big five country.

On to a couple of semi-finalists, starting with Iceland. As already touched on in the country by country preview, duets have an excellent record when done well. Last year's winners, Romania (3rd) and Denmark (4th) in 2010 and Azerbaijan (3rd) in 2009 are all recent examples of this. Few could argue the Icelandic entry isn't on a par with all of those and, as with Germany and Spain, it is again the sort of song that should appeal to fans and juries in equal measure. Rehearsals have generally been given a positive reception so a modest each-way bet at 20/1, with the option of topping up once Saturday's running order is finalised, is suggested.

Alongside this, 9/1 to be top Scandinavian country has to be worth a look from a value perspective. As already stated, Iceland are 20/1 to win the entire competition which is shorter than both Norway (33/1) and Denmark (25/1). Inexplicably, the equivalent top Scandinavian prices are Iceland 9/1, Norway 15/2 and Denmark 9/2. No further analysis needed.

Another country to keep on side is Norway. Last year, Sweden finished second on the viewer vote and the similarities, both musically and geographically are evident. Whereas the Swedes entered 2011 amongst the favourites, Norway are a far more attractive 33/1 to win. Those odds and 11/10 for the top 10 both appeal but my preferred bet is 10/1 for the second semi final. Singing 16th out of 18th is just about perfect and I don't feel this is fully factored into the odds available.

Continuing the focus on the semi-final markets, I'm of the opinion that the best approach in the first heat is to chance a big price. Without wanting to go over ground already covered in the song by song guide, juries would be rendered pointless if they supported songs like Russia, whereas Denmark is very similar to 2010's Swedish song which just missed out on a spot in the final. Romania and Iceland are major contenders but both are performed in the first half of the show, whereas Greece has been struggling to impress and is barely worth a mention. All in all, it should be a very tight leaderboard, allowing Moldova to work their way into the mix.

The Moldovans have a good qualification record - five successes from six - and are the penultimate act to perform. For good measure, they'll be on directly after a dire Austrian number so their entertaining three minutes should provide light relief and be rewarded with votes aplenty. 40/1 on Moldova in heat one is a very fair price.

As things stand, my near certainties to reach the final are Iceland, Romania, Russia, Moldova, Denmark and Greece. This leaves a question mark over Ireland with only four spots theoretically still up for grabs. Speculatively opposing them to qualify is therefore worth a look at 4/1. Last year, Jedward only progressed in the eighth of ten qualifying spots and I have a suspicion that Moldova will overshadow and 'outcrazy' what is a weaker song from the Irish twins this time around.

In Thursday's heat, not to mention their inevitable appearance in the final two days later, Sweden are naturally a force to be reckoned with. Yet Loreen's performances don't offer the same feelings of foregone conclusion as Alexander Rybak's did in 2009. If they do win, so be it, but there are enough short priced bets around that will give fewer sleepless nights to their backers.

As already mentioned, Norway has a real chance here while Ukraine follow last year's eye-catching addtion of a sand-artist with some equally clever staging to get round the problem of having a limit of people on stage. There is a real party feel in an exact contrast to the Portuguese and Bulgarian entries on either side of it. Odds of 4/11 to reach the final should entice those not normally scared off by short odds but it's 4/1 on a top three finish here and 6/4 on making the final's top ten that are my preferred options.

The chances are that opinions will be tweaking come Friday but Iceland and Norway appear best placed to beat pre-show favourites Sweden. Spain are on course to secure their best result this century while Ukraine and Moldova are the best of the really big prices.