Mike Holden has poured over the weekend Football League prices and come up with some great bets.
Blackpool v Southend
It might be contrary to most expectations given that seven of the Seasiders previous wins have been by the odd goal and Phil Brown stated in his post-match interview in midweek that he expects a tight and tense encounter on the Fylde coast, but we’re reaching that time of year where teams get desperate when chasing games and this might be a bridge too far for the Essex outfit.
Neil McDonald was in attendance at Roots Hall and one imagines he picked up a few pointers having seen Southend at their best but consistency has been a problem for them and six of the eight defeats they’ve suffered since Christmas have been by two clear goals or more, including a 4-1 defeat at Rochdale last weekend.
Colchester v Millwall
The Lions aren’t the most fluid outfit in the promotion race but they’ve started recent matches with admirable intensity, scoring eight of their last nine goals inside the opening 24 minutes. If Colchester can weather that early storm, then heavy legs could be the defining feature of what follows and there’s also mileage in backing the 0-0 at nearly 16/1.
The U’s aren’t renowned for goalless affairs but this is mostly about Millwall, the team with the second-lowest total goals expectancy in the division. Neil Harris’ men have averaged fewer than three shots on target per game over the past five outings but seven clean sheets in the last 11 illustrate how difficult they can be to break down.
York v Leyton Orient
Jackie McNamara remains convinced there’s no shortage of talent in the dressing room at Bootham Crescent and recent shot data, although erratic, appears to back him up. On their day, City are perfectly capable of dominating against top-half opposition, especially at home, so the 15/4 about them beating Leyton Orient is worth chancing.
The O’s have fallen out of the play-off places with back-to-back defeats over the Easter weekend and a full-on collapse isn't out of the question. So little did they create against either Accrington or Hartlepool, it would be rude not to get involved on the 15/2 quote available on York to win to nil. Orient’s last four defeats have all arrived in this manner.