Monaco v Montpellier - Friday 19:45, BT Sport ESPN

Monaco suffered their second defeat of the season at the in-form Toulouse and as a result slip down to 3rd, four points behind leaders Nice. After a run of seven winless games, Montpellier picked up three points at home to Caen to climb up to 15th as they look a shadow of the side that remarkably won the league in 2011/12.

Monaco have won their last three at home, including against PSG and their record at the Stade Louis II is W13-D7-L3 since the start of last season. When hosting sides between 11th and 16th they’re W4-D1-L2 in that time in games that have tended to produce goals, with five seeing more than two goals and three with more than three strikes.

Indeed, since Montpellier have shipped 12 in their last four, we think it could be a similar story here. Lyon put five past them and St Etienne managed three, meaning that Montpellier have lost each of their last four trips to top-six sides by more than one goal. With that in mind and since Monaco have been in excellent scoring form, we’re backing them to cover the -1 handicap at 3.2.

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Monaco -1 Handicap - 1pt @ 3.2