Israel Election Odds: No Clear Winner in Prime Minister Race as Votes Tally, Eizenkot Chances Tumble
Israel’s election has produced the kind of result prediction markets were increasingly preparing for late Tuesday night: no clear path to an immediate government. Benjamin Netanyahu has climbed above longtime market favorite Gadi Eisenkot as the count has progressed, but neither bloc is close to the 61 seats required to govern without additional support. Here are the latest Israel prime minister odds and what happens next if coalition negotiations fail to produce a winner.
Peter Alexis - October 28, 2026, 10:57 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadIsrael Prime Minister Odds: No Clear Winner Emerges After Election
The biggest market move since voting closed has not been toward Netanyahu or Eisenkot. It has been toward the possibility that neither candidate successfully forms a government within the market’s settlement window.
“No one” now sits at 57%, while Netanyahu has climbed to 25% and Eisenkot has fallen to 17%. That is a dramatic reversal from the pre-election market, when Eisenkot had spent months as the clear favorite and entered Election Day at 57%.
Bet on the Israel Election and more politics props with Kalshi Here
Latest Israel Prime Minister Election Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
No One Wins Majority | 57% Chance |
Benjamin Netanyahu | 25% Chance |
Gadi Eizenkot | 17% Chance |
No One: 57% Chance Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here
The “No one” contract has surged 22 points as the count has reinforced the prospect of another fragmented Knesset. The market resolves to this outcome if Israel holds another election or no new government is formed by October 27, 2027.
That price reflects the coalition problem more than the raw party results. Netanyahu’s bloc has moved ahead during counting, but it remains several seats short of a majority, while Eisenkot’s bloc is even further from 61 without support from Arab parties or other potential partners.
Benjamin Netanyahu: 25% Chance Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here
Netanyahu has climbed nine points and moved ahead of Eisenkot in the market after his bloc performed better than expected during the count. That represents an important change from the pre-election setup, when Netanyahu entered voting day well behind his main challenger.
His problem remains coalition arithmetic. Finishing with the larger bloc does not automatically produce another term as prime minister, and Netanyahu still needs additional support to reach the 61-seat threshold needed to establish a government.
Gadi Eisenkot: 17% Chance Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here
Eisenkot has suffered the most significant market decline, dropping 32 points after entering the election as the longstanding favorite. His Yashar-led opposition has not produced the decisive result required to make government formation straightforward.
The market shift is particularly striking because Eisenkot had held the top position since early summer. What appeared before the election to be a relatively stable advantage has now been replaced by uncertainty over whether either major bloc can assemble a workable coalition.
Eisenkot Also Falls Sharply in Netanyahu Successor Market
A separate market asking who will eventually succeed Netanyahu removes much of the immediate uncertainty surrounding whether a government can be formed at all. Eisenkot had traded above 60% in that market during the summer and remained the clear leader for much of the campaign.
His price has now collapsed to 22%, while Naftali Bennett sits at 6.6% and Israel Katz at 2%. The decline reinforces how dramatically Tuesday’s inconclusive result changed perceptions around Eisenkot, even in a market where the “no government” outcome is not the central question.
What Happens Next Without a Clear Winner?
Israel’s election determines the composition of the 120-seat Knesset rather than directly electing a prime minister. Once the final results are certified, the president consults with the elected parties and asks the candidate considered most capable of forming a government to attempt to build a coalition.
That candidate generally receives 28 days to assemble support from at least 61 members, with the possibility of an extension. If the first attempt fails, another candidate can be given an opportunity before the process eventually moves toward another election if no viable government emerges.
The Arab parties could therefore become increasingly important despite sitting outside both main blocs. Netanyahu’s existing coalition partners do not currently provide enough seats on their own, while Eisenkot would also need to expand his coalition arithmetic substantially to build a majority.
That leaves Israel facing potentially weeks of negotiations rather than an immediate transition. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister while that process unfolds, meaning the country can continue operating under the existing government even if no new coalition is quickly assembled.
Israel Election Prediction Market Outlook
The election has produced almost the opposite of a traditional winner-take-all result. Netanyahu has overtaken Eisenkot in the individual market and his bloc currently holds the larger share of seats, but the strongest prediction-market position belongs to neither candidate.
The 57% price on “No one” captures the central uncertainty now surrounding Israel’s political future. Eisenkot’s pre-election advantage has collapsed, Netanyahu has improved substantially, and the next phase will depend less on who finished ahead Tuesday night than on whether either side can find enough partners to reach 61 seats and form a government.
- Lean: No One (57% Chance) Bet on the Israel Election with Kalshi Here
More of oddschecker
