Ohio Senate Odds 2026: Brown vs Husted
Discover how to legally trade on the 2026 Ohio Senate special election using CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges. Analyze campaign spending, poll trends, and multi-race Ohio combo markets across Kalshi and Polymarket US.
Sam Eaton - November 2, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
3 Minute ReadOhio Senate Odds 2026: Brown vs Husted
Democrat Sherrod Brown is the favorite to win Ohio's 2026 Senate special election. Kalshi priced Brown at 71% and Republican Senator Jon Husted at 29% on November 2, and Polymarket had Brown at 73% on November 2. It's a remarkable position in a state that has voted Republican in recent statewide races.
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Ohio Senate odds
Candidate | Kalshi (Nov 2) | Polymarket (Nov 2) |
|---|---|---|
Sherrod Brown (D) | 71% | 73% |
Jon Husted (R) | 29% | 28% |
How the Ohio odds have moved
Brown has gained ground through October. Kalshi had him at 62-63% in the first week of the month and around 60% in mid-October, before he climbed to 71% by November 2 as early votes passed 1.2 million.
The candidates
Sherrod Brown (D) represented Ohio in the Senate for three terms before losing his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024. He's running again for the seat JD Vance left when he became vice president.
Jon Husted (R) was appointed to that seat in January 2025. He's a former lieutenant governor and secretary of state and has President Trump's endorsement.
Polls, money and spending
Kalshi's polling average had Brown at 48.3% and Husted at 44.0% as of late October. Brown has the bigger campaign war chest, with $61.6 million raised to Husted's $19.2 million, according to FEC figures reported by FOX19. Outside groups have reversed that: $198.5 million has been spent to support Husted against $94.7 million for Brown, according to NBC4.
Why Ohio matters
Ohio is one of the four seats Democrats are most likely to flip on the way to the net gain of four they need for a Senate majority. A Husted win would close one of those paths. The state also has an open governor's race between Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R), and Kalshi lists a combined market on both Ohio results. For the national picture, see our US politics odds page.
Ohio Senate odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the Ohio Senate race?
Sherrod Brown (D), at 71% on Kalshi as of November 2.
What are Jon Husted's odds?
About 28-30% across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Why is there a Senate election in Ohio in 2026?
It's a special election for the rest of the term JD Vance won in 2022, after he left the Senate to become vice president.
When will the Ohio market settle?
It depends on the platform. Polymarket's Ohio market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC all call the race for the same candidate, or on official certification if they don't.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices are not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
