Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan Odds: Alaska's Senate Race Favoring the Democrat on Kalshi, Polymarket
What are the latest Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan odds? Can the Democrats take Alaska? Follow our pre-poll closing betting guide for Kalshi and Polymarket, plus promo codes ODDSCHECKER and CHECK.
Oliver Leonard - November 3, 2026, 6:30 PM EST
3 Minute ReadMary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan Odds: Alaska's Senate Race Favoring the Democrat on Kalshi, Polymarket
Midterms Election Day has arrived, and as voting draws to a close across the Last Frontier, the clash between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan has emerged as one of the most actively traded single-race markets in the country.
Traders on CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket have poured millions of dollars in volume into contracts for this race. As of Tuesday afternoon, prediction markets favor Peltola over the two-term incumbent Sullivan. On Kalshi, Peltola trades at 69¢ with Sullivan at 31¢. Over on Polymarket, Peltola stands near 73¢ while Sullivan trades around 28¢. . sign up through oddschecker today.
If you are planning to take a position before final tallies roll in, here is how both exchanges price the Mary Peltola vs Dan Sullivan odds, critical trading dynamics to monitor, and key factors shaping the race.
Choose Your Platform: Kalshi or Polymarket US Promo Steps
Both platforms operate legally under CFTC oversight for US traders, and new users can claim bonus funds on both exchanges ahead of poll closing.
How to Claim the Polymarket $25 Promo Code (CHECK)
Redeeming your welcome bonus on the official US platform takes just five simple steps:
- Step 1: CLICK HERE or download the official Polymarket U.S. app.
- Step 2: Tap "I have a referral code" and enter promo code CHECK.
- Step 3: Complete signup using your Apple or Google login.
- Step 4: Add a payment method and deposit at least $10.
- Step 5: Make your first qualifying trade - your $25 trading bonus is issued automatically. (Bonus funds are non-withdrawable, but profits from trades are yours to keep. Offer not available in Nevada).
How to Claim Your Kalshi $25 Promo Code (ODDSCHECKER)
Redeeming your welcome offer and unlocking your credit takes just six simple steps:
- Step 1: CLICK HERE or visit Kalshi, or download the app and start the sign-up process.
- Step 2: Provide your date of birth and enter the Kalshi promo code: ODDSCHECKER.
- Step 3: Enter a valid phone number and input the verification code sent to your phone.
- Step 4: Accept the Kalshi Terms & Conditions and confirm your personal information, including your Social Security Number (SSN), as required for CFTC-regulated exchanges.
- Step 5: Deposit funds using an approved payment method (ACH, debit card, USDC, or wire).
- Step 6: Complete $25 in total trades across any available markets (politics, sports, finance, or entertainment) to trigger your bonus. (Multiple smaller trades count toward the $25 total).
Kalshi vs. Polymarket US Odds Comparison
On both exchanges, each contract pays out exactly $1.00 if your candidate wins and $0.00 if they lose. Market prices represent the implied probability and change constantly in real time based on late-breaking turnout reports, volume shifts, and early county counting.
Alaska Senate Odds (November 3, 2026)
Candidate | Party | Kalshi Price (Nov 3) | Kalshi Implied Payout (100 Contracts) | Polymarket Price (Nov 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mary Peltola | Democrat | 69¢ (Yes) / 35¢ (No) | Pay $69 → Win $100 ($31 profit) | 73¢ (Yes) / 28¢ (No) |
Dan Sullivan | Republican | 31¢ (Yes) | Pay $31 → Win $100 ($69 profit) | 28¢ (Yes) / 73¢ (No) |
Tips for Betting on the Alaska Senate Race Before Polls Close
- Account for Alaska's Ranked-Choice System and Tabulation Timing: Unlike traditional first-past-the-post jurisdictions, Alaska uses an open top-four primary with ranked-choice voting (RCV) for the general election. If neither Peltola nor Sullivan secures an outright 50%+ majority on the first round of tabulation, lower-ranking candidates are eliminated sequentially. First-choice ballot drops can create sharp volatility on order books before down-ballot transfers are tabulated. Avoid panic-selling on partial, first-choice figures.
- Utilize Limit Orders Instead of Market Buys: Spread widths on political event contracts often widen when transaction activity spikes near voting deadlines. Rather than paying the ask directly (such as taking 73¢ on Polymarket or 69¢ on Kalshi), consider entering a limit order slightly beneath current price levels to pick up shares during temporary liquidity fluctuations.
- Take Advantage of Pre-Settlement Exits: You do not have to hold contracts until the state division certifies the canvas or networks project the race. If you enter an underdog position on Sullivan around 28¢–31¢and a burst of favorable road-system precincts moves contracts higher, you can sell into the order book early to secure profit.
- Watch Multi-Race Correlation: If you want additional exposure beyond a single-candidate position, explore broader Senate balance-of-power or combo markets that bundle Alaska with other competitive battlegrounds across the country.
Why the Alaska Senate Race Is Crucial for the 2026 Midterms
- The Path to Senate Majority Control: Defending seats in right-leaning states remains vital for the balance of power. A victory for Mary Peltola would flip a seat held by Dan Sullivan since his first win in 2014, fundamentally altering the chamber's arithmetic and giving Democrats an essential defensive cushion against seat flips in traditional swing states.
- Alaska's Shifting Electoral Dynamics: Peltola has previously demonstrated crossover appeal across Alaska's coalition of rural Native communities, urban Anchorage, and independent voters. Markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are treating Alaska as a test case for whether that statewide coalition holds against a seasoned statewide incumbent like Sullivan in a midterm climate.
Alaska Senate Betting FAQs
When do polls close in Alaska?
Polling locations in Alaska are open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM local time. The vast majority of the state observes Alaska Time, where voting ends at 8:00 PM AKST (midnight Eastern Time). A few locations in the western Aleutian Islands observe Hawaii-Aleutian Time, where polls close at 8:00 PM HAST (1:00 AM Eastern Time). Voters who are in line by 8:00 PM local time retain the legal right to cast a ballot.
Can I legally bet on the Alaska Senate race?
Yes. You can trade event contracts on the Alaska Senate contest via CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges like Kalshi and Polymarket US. Traditional U.S. sportsbooks do not offer political wagering under standard state gaming compacts.
How do Kalshi and Polymarket settle the Alaska market?
- Polymarket: Resolves according to consensus calls from major decision desks (such as the Associated Press, Fox News, and other national networks), or official election certification if an outcome remains under recount or legal dispute.
- Kalshi: Resolves against official certifications issued by the state election authority, though order books generally converge near $0.99 once decision desks project a final result.
Can I sell my shares on election night while votes are being counted?
Yes. Both exchanges operate live, double-auction order books, enabling participants to open, scale back, or exit positions at current market prices throughout tabulation.
Disclaimers: Contract pricing and market data are sourced from Kalshi and Polymarket figures as of November 3, 2026, and fluctuate continuously. Prediction market values represent collective participant probability estimates, not guaranteed outcomes. Kalshi and Polymarket operate as CFTC-regulated exchanges. Trading event contracts carries risk of financial loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, confidential support is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.
