Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest CFB Odds for Tuesday, November 3rd
Buffalo travels to Oxford for a Tuesday night MAC showdown against Miami (OH), with both programs entering at 5-3 and competing for positioning in the conference championship race. Can Messiah Burch and the Bulls extend their three-game winning streak against Caleb Heavner and a RedHawks team that has repeatedly relied on late-game heroics? Check out this Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) prediction and best bet for Tuesday, November 3.
Peter Alexis - November 3, 2026, 5:15 PM EST
5 Minute ReadBuffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction: Can Buffalo Continue Hot Play, Surprise RedHawks on Tuesday Night?
Buffalo (5-3, 3-1 MAC) visits Miami (OH) (5-3, 3-1 MAC) at Yager Stadium on Tuesday, November 3, with kickoff scheduled for 8 PM ET on ESPN. The Bulls enter following a 31-24 victory over Bowling Green, while the RedHawks extended their winning streak to three games with a dramatic 28-27 road victory over Central Michigan.
Both programs enter with identical conference records, making Tuesday's matchup important for the MAC championship race. Miami has dominated the recent series, but Buffalo has developed one of the conference's most productive rushing attacks behind Burch, creating an intriguing matchup against a RedHawks defense that has been particularly effective stopping the run.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Recent Results
Buffalo Bulls (5-3), (3-1 MAC)
Buffalo extended its winning streak to three games with a 31-24 home victory over Bowling Green on October 24. Running back Messiah Burch delivered a career-best performance, rushing for 184 yards and three touchdowns on 33 carries while helping the Bulls overcome multiple deficits.
Quarterback Jason Wright threw for 127 yards and a touchdown while adding a critical 39-yard run that set up Buffalo's tying score before halftime. Tight end Clint Walker caught a 14-yard touchdown pass, while Burch broke a 73-yard touchdown run early in the fourth quarter to give Buffalo a 10-point advantage.
The Bulls previously defeated Massachusetts 25-18 in overtime on October 17. Buffalo trailed late in regulation before Wright led a 65-yard drive to set up Oliver Hautanen's game-tying field goal. Wright subsequently connected with Walker for a 15-yard touchdown in overtime to secure the victory.
Buffalo also earned an impressive 23-8 road victory against Toledo on October 10, holding the Rockets to just 308 total yards while forcing multiple turnovers. Burch rushed for 137 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown run that secured the victory late in the fourth quarter.
The Bulls average 22.6 points and approximately 331 total yards per game, including 176 rushing yards. Their defense allows 25.4 points and 377.5 yards per contest, although the unit has improved considerably during conference play and generated seven takeaways across its last three games.
Miami (OH) RedHawks (5-3), (3-1 MAC)
Miami extended its winning streak to three games with a narrow 28-27 road victory over Central Michigan on October 24. The RedHawks trailed late in the fourth quarter before quarterback Caleb Heavner directed a 75-yard touchdown drive, capped by D'Shawntae Jones' short rushing touchdown with under two minutes remaining.
Heavner delivered his strongest passing performance of the season, throwing for a career-high 221 yards and a touchdown while adding 58 rushing yards. Receiver Maleek Huggins caught seven passes for 122 yards, providing an important downfield threat against a Central Michigan defense that struggled to contain Miami's passing attack.
The RedHawks previously defeated Akron 34-14 on October 17, controlling the contest through an effective rushing attack and opportunistic defensive play. Rodney Nelson rushed for 142 yards, while Miami capitalized on Akron's turnovers to generate scoring opportunities.
Miami also escaped Massachusetts with a 20-19 victory on October 10 after the Minutemen scored in the final seconds but failed on a two-point conversion. That result continued a stretch of close games, with five of the RedHawks' last six contests decided on the final possession.
Miami averages 27 points and 358.1 total yards per game, including 141.1 rushing yards. The defense allows 25.8 points and 367 yards per contest, although its performance against the run has been considerably stronger, surrendering just 97.1 rushing yards per game.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Head to Head
Miami leads the all-time series 18-9 and has won the last two meetings.
- November 19, 2025: Miami (OH) 37, Buffalo 20
- November 15, 2023: Miami (OH) 23, Buffalo 10
- November 12, 2022: Buffalo 24, Miami (OH) 20
- November 9, 2021: Miami (OH) 45, Buffalo 18
- November 10, 2020: Buffalo 42, Miami (OH) 10
Miami defeated Buffalo 37-20 last season, securing a comfortable victory behind an effective offensive performance. The RedHawks also won 23-10 in Oxford during the 2023 season, continuing their recent success against the Bulls.
Buffalo's last victory in the series came in a 24-20 home win during the 2022 season. The Bulls have struggled historically at Yager Stadium, winning just three of 14 previous road meetings against Miami, with their most recent victory in Oxford coming in 2015.
However, Tuesday's matchup features considerably different quarterbacks and offensive personnel. Buffalo's recent rushing production and Miami's uncertainty at quarterback create a different competitive environment than the programs' previous meetings.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Date, Time, Where to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
- Time: 8 PM ET
- Location: Yager Stadium, Oxford, Ohio
- How to Watch: ESPN
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Odds
- Spread: Buffalo +7 (-112), Miami (OH) -7 (-103)
- Total Points: Over 44.5 (-113), Under 44.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Buffalo (+220), Miami (OH) (-260)
Click here for the latest Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Odds
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Line Movement and Betting Splits
Miami opened as approximately a 6.5-point favorite, with the market fluctuating between -6 and -7 throughout the week. The supplied sportsbook currently offers Miami -7, creating an important opportunity for Buffalo bettors to secure a full touchdown rather than settling for +6.5.
The total opened around 44.5 points before briefly climbing as high as 46.5 at some sportsbooks. It has since returned to the 44.5 range, reflecting expectations for a relatively low-scoring matchup between two teams that rely heavily on their rushing attacks.
One tracked betting sample showed Buffalo attracting approximately 53% of spread tickets but only 30% of the handle at +6. Miami received 47% of tickets and 70% of the money, suggesting larger average wagers on the home favorite. However, the market has remained relatively stable, and getting Buffalo at +7 provides additional protection compared with the more commonly available +6 or +6.5.
Buffalo Bulls Injury Report and Team News
Buffalo has dealt with a significant quarterback injury involving Elijah Holmes, who has been sidelined for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Wright has assumed the starting responsibilities, throwing for 987 yards and seven touchdowns while contributing important rushing production during late-game situations.
The Bulls have also experienced receiving injuries involving B. Mays, T. Richards and J. Gathings, while running back Terrance Shelton Jr. has dealt with previous availability concerns. Their current statuses remain unconfirmed, potentially leaving Buffalo dependent on its established rushing rotation and a smaller group of receiving contributors.
Burch remains the centerpiece of the offense, accumulating 845 rushing yards and five touchdowns while surpassing 100 yards in five consecutive games. Chance Morrow leads the receiving corps with 41 catches for 480 yards, while Walker has emerged as an important red-zone target with three touchdowns across his last two games.
Miami (OH) RedHawks Injury Report and Team News
Miami enters with significant quarterback absences after losing both Thomas Gotkowski and David McComb to season-ending injuries. Gotkowski was injured during fall camp, while McComb suffered his injury against UConn in September, forcing Heavner into the starting role.
Heavner is expected to make his fifth start against Buffalo after completing 56 of 102 passes for 615 yards and three touchdowns this season. His mobility provides additional offensive versatility, with 217 rushing yards and two scores, although the passing attack has struggled with consistency throughout his appearances.
The RedHawks have also dealt with previous injuries involving receiver Devin Hyatt and tight ends Eric Karner, Brayden Boeing and Trey Zvonar, with some current designations remaining unconfirmed. Huggins and Scoop Smith have helped maintain offensive production, while Miami's experienced offensive line has provided an important foundation for its rushing attack.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction
Miami enters as the home favorite, but several important matchup factors suggest Buffalo has a realistic opportunity to remain competitive and potentially challenge for an outright victory.
The most significant consideration is Burch's recent production. The senior running back has accumulated 745 rushing yards over his last five games, averaging 149 yards per contest while emerging as one of the MAC's most productive offensive players. His ability to generate consistent gains and explosive runs has transformed Buffalo's offensive identity.
Miami presents a difficult rushing matchup, allowing just 97.1 yards per game and ranking among the nation's strongest run defenses. However, Buffalo has demonstrated the ability to establish the ground game against quality competition, including 180 rushing yards against Toledo and consistent production against Western Michigan.
The Bulls also benefit from their offensive approach in a game with a relatively low total. Buffalo has increasingly relied on sustained rushing drives and field-position advantages rather than asking Wright to generate substantial passing production. That strategy could reduce the number of possessions and make it difficult for Miami to build a multi-score advantage.
Wright's passing numbers remain modest, with a completion percentage below 50%, but his ability to extend drives has become an important factor during Buffalo's winning streak. The quarterback has directed productive late-game possessions against Massachusetts and Bowling Green, demonstrating composure when the Bulls have needed points.
Miami's quarterback situation also creates an opportunity for Buffalo's improving defense. Heavner has shown flashes of production, particularly against Central Michigan, but his overall passing statistics remain inconsistent. The RedHawks have averaged relatively modest production through the air in several recent games, making it difficult to project a comfortable offensive advantage against Buffalo.
The Bulls have generated seven takeaways across their last three contests after forcing just two during their first five games. That defensive improvement could become particularly important against Heavner, who threw two interceptions against Central Michigan despite leading the winning drive.
Buffalo's defensive front has also performed well against the run. The Bulls have allowed only one opposing running back to reach 100 yards this season and limited Toledo to 101 rushing yards during their impressive road victory. Miami averages 141.1 rushing yards per game, suggesting the RedHawks could struggle to consistently establish their preferred offensive approach.
Another important consideration is Miami's recent inability to create separation. Five of the RedHawks' last six games have been decided on the final possession, including one-point victories over Massachusetts and Central Michigan. Even during their three-game winning streak, the RedHawks have relied on late scoring drives and defensive stops rather than sustained offensive dominance.
Home-field advantage remains Miami's strongest situational edge. The RedHawks have dominated the series in Oxford and possess an experienced coaching staff under Chuck Martin. However, Buffalo has already demonstrated its ability to secure a difficult MAC road victory at Toledo, where the Bulls snapped the Rockets' nine-game home winning streak.
FairPlay AI projects Miami as a 3.5-point favorite with a 61% win probability, compared with the sportsbook offering Buffalo +7. That represents approximately 3.5 points of projected spread value on the Bulls, even though the model still narrowly favors Miami to win outright. FairPlay AI also projects 48.5 total points against the sportsbook number of 44.5, suggesting a slightly more productive offensive matchup than the market anticipates.
The biggest concern for Buffalo is Miami's outstanding rushing defense. If the RedHawks prevent Burch from establishing consistent production, Wright could be forced into difficult passing situations against an experienced defensive front. However, Miami's own offensive limitations and recent close-game performances create a realistic path for Buffalo to remain within one possession throughout the contest.
Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Best Bet
- Best Bet: Buffalo +7 (-112) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Buffalo enters with a three-game winning streak and one of the conference's most productive running backs, providing a dependable offensive foundation against Miami's physical defense. The Bulls have also improved considerably defensively, generating seven takeaways over their last three games while limiting several capable MAC offenses to modest scoring production.
Miami benefits from playing at home and possesses an outstanding rushing defense, but its quarterback injuries and recent inability to create comfortable margins make a touchdown spread difficult to justify. Buffalo has enough rushing production and defensive playmaking ability to remain competitive, while getting the full seven points provides push protection against an exact touchdown defeat.
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