Brewers vs. Rays Best Bets: 5 Top Props for World Series Game 3
The Brewers and Rays shift to Tropicana Field for World Series Game 3 on Monday night with Milwaukee holding a 2-0 series lead after winning a pair of one-run games at home. Can Robert Gasser, Freddy Peralta and Brice Turang shape another tight matchup as Tampa Bay tries to get back into the series? Check out these Brewers vs. Rays 5 best bets for Monday, October 26.
Peter Alexis - October 26, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT
3 Minute ReadBrewers vs. Rays World Series Game 3: 5 Best Bets for Monday, October 26
Milwaukee took complete control of the World Series at home, following a 3-2 Game 1 victory with a 5-4 comeback win in Game 2. Tampa Bay jumped out to a 4-0 lead Saturday before the Brewers scored five unanswered runs, leaving the Rays facing a crucial Game 3 as the series shifts to Florida.
Robert Gasser starts for Milwaukee opposite Freddy Peralta in a matchup carrying significant implications for both clubs. The five selections spread across two starting-pitcher strikeout markets, the Milwaukee moneyline, a plus-money Brice Turang doubles prop and an Over on a 7-run total.
Brewers vs. Rays Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Monday, October 26th, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FOX
Brewers vs. Rays Odds
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Brewers vs. Rays 5 Best Bets Breakdown for World Series Game 3
1. Robert Gasser Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-112) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Robert Gasser enters this matchup in exceptional form, carrying a 1.11 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP over his last five starts. During that span, he has compiled 22 strikeouts across 27.0 innings, maintaining a season rate of 8.48 K/9. The AI projection of 4.8 strikeouts creates significant value against a modest 3.5-strikeout line, as the model assigns a 70.6% probability for him to clear the Over.
Tampa Bay’s lineup has struggled to find consistent power, often relying on high-contact strategies that Gasser’s sharp command is well-equipped to neutralize. With an expected value of +38.3%, this is the strongest individual edge on the board.
2. Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+105) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
The Brewers are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, winning nine of their last 10 games while averaging 4.3 runs per contest. Milwaukee holds a clear advantage in the starting pitching matchup, as Robert Gasser’s recent 1.11 ERA far outpaces Freddy Peralta’s 4.31 mark.
Furthermore, the Brewers' bullpen provides a late-game safety net with Trevor Megill (2.50 ERA, 35 saves) and Abner Uribe (2.02 ERA) available to close out high-leverage innings. The AI model projects Milwaukee to win 55.1% of the time, which makes the 2.05 (+105) price at +13.0% EV a mispriced line for a team in peak form.
3. Freddy Peralta Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-113) Check out the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Freddy Peralta has seen a notable decline in length and efficiency recently, averaging just 4.4 innings per start over his last five outings. In that window, he has managed only 3.2 strikeouts per game, hindered by control issues evidenced by 10 walks in 22.0 innings.
He faces a disciplined Milwaukee lineup featuring high-OBP threats like Brice Turang (.382 recent OBP) and Jake Bauers (.410 recent OBP) who excel at extending plate appearances. The AI model projects Peralta for just 4.35 strikeouts, giving the Under 5.5 a high 72.8% probability. Given the likely early hook in a postseason environment, the +23.1% expected value is well-supported by recent data.
4. Brice Turang Over 0.5 Doubles (+436) Check out the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Brice Turang has emerged as a major offensive spark for Milwaukee, posting a .382 OBP and an .823 OPS over his last 10 games. The AI model identifies him as the primary candidate for extra-base hits in this matchup, projecting 0.34 expected doubles—the highest mark in the player pool.
He faces Freddy Peralta, who struggled with a 1.32 WHIP during the regular season and has recently shown vulnerability to gap contact. While player doubles are a high-variance market, the Poisson-implied probability of 28.8% creates massive value at 5.36 odds (+436). The data suggests the true price should be much shorter, resulting in a +54.6% expected value edge.
5. Over 7 Total Runs (-110) Check out the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
While both teams possess capable pitching, the offensive metrics suggest this 7-run total is set too low. The Brewers' offense has been surging, hitting 11 home runs over their last 10 games, while Tampa Bay’s top-of-the-order hitters like Caminero and Diaz have consistently created run-scoring opportunities. The AI model projects a combined score of 7.87 runs (4.56 for MIL, 3.94 for TB).
With a 54.3% probability to clear the total and the added security of a push on exactly seven runs, taking the Over at 2.05 odds provides a +11.3% expected value edge. Statistical distributions favor a higher-scoring outcome than the current market consensus implies.
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