2026 Midterm Election Tracker: Live Odds and Prediction Market Prices for 2026 Election Night
Looking for the latest Midterm Election 2026 tracker? You've come to the right place. Check out what the prediction markets are saying about who will win all the close races across the country on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Brian Good - November 3, 2026, 8:15 PM EST
3 Minute Read2026 Midterm Election Tracker: Live Odds and Prediction Market Prices for 2026 Election Night
What started as a potential Blue Wave looks like it may turn into a Blue Tsunami as our 2026 Midterm Election Tracker has seen prediction market traders hammer the Democratic Party to come out on top in both the Senate and House.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. You can trade these odds on Kalshi and Polymarket US, with a welcome bonus on each: Kalshi promo code ODDSCHECKER and Polymarket promo code CHECK when you sign up through oddschecker.
Who will win the House in 2026? The Latest Odds and Prices
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 97% | 98% |
Republicans | 3% | 2% |
- The Threshold: All 435 House seats are up for election; either party must secure 218 seats to capture the speaker's gavel and legislative majority.
- Kalshi Market Movement: Opened May 27 at an implied 76% probability for Democrats to take the chamber, climbing steadily to over 90% by November 3.
- Record Liquidity: Stands as the highest-volume 2026 midterm market on Kalshi, drawing hundreds of millions in cumulative trading volume across congressional contracts.
- The Midterm Precedent: Midterm cycles historically penalize the party holding the White House—a structural disadvantage observed in nearly every post-WWII administration that traders factored in from day one.
Who will win the Senate in 2026? The Latest Odds and Prices
Party | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
Democrats | 90% | 91% |
Republicans | 10% | 9% |
The Senate had been predicted to be a much closer race, but as the day goes on the prediction market traders are hammering the Democratic party to come away with control. As of October 30, the Democratic Party had just a 67.8% chance to take control on Kalshi. Now, as of 8 pm ET on November 3, that number is up to 91.8%.
Key Senate race odds
These are the races Kalshi traders see as most likely to decide the Senate, with the latest prices we've seen:
State | Matchup | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) | Talarico 80% (Nov 3) | Talarico 83% (Nov 3) |
Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) | El-Sayed 87% (Nov 3) | El-Sayed 90% (Nov 3) |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) | Brown 89% (Nov 3) | Brown 92% (Nov 3) |
Maine | Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) | Jackson 76% (Nov 3) | Jackson 77% (Nov 3) |
South Carolina | Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham (R) | Andrews 54% (Nov 3) | Andrews 54% (Nov 3) |
Kansas | Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall | Hamilton 74% (Nov 3) | Hamilton 76% (Nov 3) |
Iowa | Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R) | Turek 74% (Nov 3) | Turek 74% (Nov 3) |
For more on one of the closest contests, read our Maine Senate odds breakdown, South Carolina senate odds analysis, Kansas Senate election deep dive and MORE.
Odds vs polls
In high-stakes battlegrounds like Texas, Michigan, and Maine, midterm polls and prediction markets are showing a noticeable disconnect:
- The Polling Snapshot: Recent Marist surveys show razor-thin margins, with Democratic candidates holding modest two-point leads.
- The Market Forecast: Betting markets price those same races at a 90% to 96% probability of a Democratic win.
- Why the Gap Exists: Polls measure today’s sentiment; election traders price the final outcome. Market odds factor in campaign cash reserves, early ballot returns, historical state polling biases, and macro national trends.
For 2026 election analysts and market participants, this divergence highlights where traders see mispriced odds and potential value on the board.
How to bet on the midterm odds
Traditional sportsbooks are prohibited from offering political betting lines, which means legal election trading takes place on federally regulated event exchanges. If you want to trade contracts on congressional control, key Senate races, or gubernatorial outcomes, top Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated prediction markets offer dedicated election boards along with exclusive sign-up incentives:
- Kalshi: Trade regulated event contracts directly on political outcomes. Use promo code ODDSCHECKER to receive a $15 bonus credit after meeting qualifying trade requirements.
- Polymarket US: Buy and sell outcome shares on high-volume political markets. Enter promo code CHECK to earn a $25 trading bonus after your first $10 deposit and trade (currently unavailable to Nevada residents).
- ProphetX: Take positions across competitive exchange-traded markets. sign up to claim a $75 trading bonus once you complete $50 in qualifying volume.
2026 midterm odds FAQs
Who will win the House in 2026, according to the odds?
Democrats, at about 98% on Kalshi and Polymarket as of November 3.
Who will win the Senate in 2026, according to the odds?
Democrats are favored at about 90%. Republicans are priced at about 27% to keep control.
What are the odds the Senate flips?
The same as the Democratic price above: about 90%. A flip needs a net Democratic gain of four seats.
What are the odds Republicans keep the House?
About 3% on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket.
When are the midterms?
Tuesday, November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are on the ballot.
Where can I bet on the midterms?
On Kalshi or Polymarket US, subject to state eligibility. Our guide to where you can bet on the midterms near you explains the rules.
Odds are from Kalshi and Polymarket on the dates shown and change constantly. Market prices reflect traders' views, not predictions or endorsements. Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges. Age and state eligibility rules apply, and promo terms apply. The Polymarket offer is not available in Nevada. Trading event contracts carries a risk of loss. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
