2026 AL MVP Odds: Aaron Judge Heavy Favorite to Achieve Rare MVP Three-Peat
Aaron Judge has crushed through the AL and snagged the MVP award in three of the last four seasons. After just edging out Cal Raleigh last fall, can he do it again in 2026 and join Barry Bonds as a three-peat champion? Peter Alexis breaks down the AL MVP odds ahead of MLB Opening Day.
Peter Alexis - March 25, 2026, 4:50 PM EDT
5 Minute Read2026 AL MVP Odds: Aaron Judge Poised to Join Barry Bonds as Only Three-Peat MLB MVP Winners
Aaron Judge has won the last two American League MVP awards, and the market says he is in strong position to make it three in a row. Judge opens as the +215 favorite, well ahead of the rest of the board after edging out Cal Raleigh in a tight 2025 race. Judge finished with 17 first-place votes and 355 points, while Raleigh received 13 first-place votes and 335 points, making it one of the closest AL MVP finishes in recent years.
That gap in the current odds says a lot about how dominant Judge has been. Bobby Witt Jr. sits second at +500, while Raleigh is third at +1100, and after that the prices start to stretch quickly. Judge is still the standard in this league, but there are a few names close enough to matter if his production slips at all or if someone else puts together a monster season.
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2026 AL MVP Odds
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Aaron Judge (+215) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Judge is the favorite for a reason. Last season with the Yankees, he hit .331 with 53 home runs and 114 RBI, won his third career AL MVP, and captured his first batting title while again putting up absurd all-around offensive value. He led the majors in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and times on base, which is exactly the kind of profile that keeps him at the top of this market.
The question is not whether Judge can produce MVP numbers, because he clearly can. The question is whether anyone else can reach a level high enough to knock him off. If he stays healthy and comes close to matching last year’s line, the path to another MVP is obvious.
Bobby Witt (+500) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Witt remains one of the most dangerous challengers because of how much he contributes across the board. Last season for the Royals, he hit .295 with 23 home runs and 88 RBI, while also adding elite athleticism and value at a premium position. That all-around impact helped keep him firmly in the AL MVP conversation even if the raw power totals were not quite at Judge’s level.
At +500, the market still sees him as the clearest alternative to Judge. If Kansas City stays in the playoff mix and Witt turns some of that doubles-and-speed production into a few more homers, he has the talent to make this race much tighter than the current odds suggest.
Cal Raleigh (+1100) Click here to get the best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Raleigh was the player closest to stopping Judge last year, and the power numbers were huge. The Mariners catcher hit .247 with 60 home runs and 125 RBI, finished second in AL MVP voting, and put together one of the greatest offensive seasons ever by a catcher. That kind of power production is why he still sits near the top of the board this year.
The challenge for Raleigh is that he may need another outlier season to get back to the very top of the ballot. Catcher value helps him, and Seattle should again lean heavily on his bat, but duplicating 60 home runs is a huge ask. Still, if he stays anywhere near that level, +1100 could look generous.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+1300) Click here to get the best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Guerrero remains one of the most recognizable AL stars, but his 2025 season was more good than overwhelming. He hit .292 with 23 home runs and 84 RBI for the Blue Jays, solid numbers but not quite explosive enough to force his way into the top tier of this race. That is why he sits in the second group of contenders rather than right next to Judge, Witt, and Raleigh.
The upside is still obvious. Guerrero’s offensive ceiling is high enough to reenter the true MVP conversation if the home run totals jump back into the 30s and Toronto contends all year. At +1300, the market is betting more on star talent and bounce-back potential than on what he actually produced last season.
Roman Anthony (+1400) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Anthony is one of the more fascinating names on this board because the market is pricing in major upside. The Red Sox outfielder debuted in 2025 and hit .292 with 8 home runs and 32 RBI in a relatively small sample, but his underlying quality of contact was impressive enough to generate real excitement entering 2026.
At +1400, this is a bet on a breakout. Anthony has the prospect pedigree and enough early production to justify the attention, but he still has a lot more to prove than the names above him. If he makes a star leap right away, he could absolutely hang around this race, but the number is asking you to believe that jump is coming immediately.
Nick Kurtz (+1500) Click here to get the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kurtz looks like one of the most interesting power-and-production longshots in the AL field. Last season for the Athletics, he hit .290 with 36 home runs and 86 RBI, won AL Rookie of the Year, earned a Silver Slugger, and finished with one of the best OPS marks in the league. Those are massive numbers for a player this early in his career.
The biggest question is team context. It is harder to win MVP on a club that is not expected to dominate the standings, but if Kurtz repeats that level of slugging and pushes his totals even higher, he has a real path to outperforming these odds. Among the longer prices near the top of the board, he might be the most interesting upside play.
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