2026 NFL Draft First Pick Team Odds: Will Raiders Trade Down For A Haul?
The NFL Draft First Pick Team odds have started to settle, which is the perfect time for anyone expecting a trade. The Las Vegas Raiders stand at 93% odds but the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, and Dallas Cowboys all have players or picks to deal.
Jack Borovitz - January 10, 2026, 8:30 PM EST
6 Minute ReadNFL Draft First Pick Team Odds: Will Raiders Trade Down For A Haul?
The 2026 NFL Draft first pick is set, and the betting markets have spoken with remarkable clarity. Las Vegas owns the top selection after finishing 3-14, the worst record in franchise history since 2006, and the Kalshi market shows an obvious 93 percent chance the Raiders will be the team making the pick on April 23 in Pittsburgh. With over $171,000 traded already, bettors seem to feel confident this pick stays put.
The Raiders clinched the selection when the Giants beat the Cowboys in Week 18, giving Las Vegas the tiebreaker over three other 3-14 teams based on strength of schedule. That outcome triggered immediate market movement. What had been a competitive race for the top spot became a near certainty overnight. The Raiders, who fired Pete Carroll after just one disastrous season, now hold the draft's most valuable asset with Geno Smith's 17-interception collapse serving as the perfect argument for a franchise quarterback reset.
The gap between Las Vegas and every other team shows the Raiders likely won't put the pick on the market. The Raiders sit at 93 percent. The Jets, who would need to construct a massive trade package, check in at 8 percent. Cincinnati trails at 5 percent despite desperately needing offensive line and defensive help. Dallas hovers at 4 percent with two first-round picks to potentially dangle. Everyone else registers as a rounding error. The market is pricing in the Raiders taking Indiana's Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza or Oregon's Dante Moore rather than trading down, and the betting public agrees by an overwhelming margin.
For teams hoping to move up, the cost would be historic. Trading for the first overall pick typically requires two first-round selections plus Day 2 picks as a baseline. The Jets have the capital after stockpiling picks at the trade deadline. The Cowboys hold two first-rounders after the Micah Parsons deal. Cincinnati could theoretically package their 10th overall pick with future assets, or even Burrow himself. But the Raiders haven't drafted a quarterback in the first round since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, and the organization's desperation for a franchise signal-caller makes a trade scenario unlikely unless an overwhelming offer arrives.
Bet on the NFL First Pick Team with Kalshi Here
2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds
Team | Chance |
|---|---|
Las Vegas Raiders | 93% |
New York Jets | 8% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 5% |
Dallas Cowboys | 4% |
2026 NFL Draft First Pick Odds Breakdown
Las Vegas Raiders: 93%
The Raiders are overwhelming favorites to make the pick, and for good reason. The franchise owns the selection outright after a catastrophic 3-14 season that saw Pete Carroll fired after just one year. Geno Smith's reunion with his former Seahawks coach produced a league-high 17 interceptions and an offense that averaged 12.7 points per game after Chip Kelly's midseason dismissal. At 35 years old, Smith is signed through 2027 but represents a dead end rather than a solution.
Las Vegas has not selected a quarterback in Round 1 since the JaMarcus Russell disaster nearly two decades ago. General manager John Spytek, working alongside minority owner Tom Brady, now has the chance to reset the franchise's most important position. Fernando Mendoza is the betting favorite to go first overall at sportsbooks, and the Raiders' front office will almost certainly be choosing between Mendoza and Dante Moore when they go on the clock. Trading the pick would require a haul they can't refuse, and no team has emerged as a realistic suitor willing to pay that price.
The Raiders have 10 total picks in the draft after Spytek's maneuvering, giving them flexibility to add talent throughout the roster. But the first overall selection will define this offseason. The market reflects near certainty that Las Vegas keeps the pick and takes a quarterback.
New York Jets: 8%
The Jets are the most realistic trade-up candidate, which explains their 8 percent probability. New York tore down the roster at the trade deadline and now holds four picks in the top 50, including the second overall selection and another first-rounder acquired from Indianapolis. That capital could theoretically be packaged to move up one spot if the Jets fall in love with one of the top quarterbacks.
The problem is timing. Justin Fields failed in his one season with the Jets, and the franchise is searching for yet another answer at the game's most high profile position. But moving from second to first would be expensive, likely requiring both first-rounders plus additional picks, and there's no guarantee the Jets have a preference for Mendoza or Moore over taking whoever is available at their own spot. New York could just as easily take the undrafted quarterback at number two and save the draft capital for other positions.
Aaron Glenn's new regime needs to rebuild the roster from the ground up. Trading a massive package to move up one spot makes less sense than accumulating talent across multiple picks. The 8 percent probability more reflects the Jets' theoretical ability to make the move rather than the likelihood they actually do it.
Cincinnati Bengals: 5%
Cincinnati holds the 10th overall pick, their highest selection since drafting Ja'Marr Chase in 2021. The 5 percent probability reflects one of the wildest scenarios circulating in draft speculation, a path that would require the Bengals to blow up everything and start over. The conversation centers on Joe Burrow.
Burrow's frustration with the organization has become increasingly visible. The Bengals are wasting his prime with a defense that allowed over 4,000 passing yards and a roster construction strategy that has left Cincinnati on the outside of playoff contention. League sources suggest Burrow has realized the franchise is not built to compete for championships in his window, and while the probability remains low, there is a nonzero chance he could force his way out this offseason if he demands a trade.
If that scenario plays out, the Bengals would possess the most valuable trade chip in NFL history. Burrow under contract would command a package dwarfing even the Deshaun Watson and Matthew Stafford deals. When the Browns landed Watson in 2022, they sent three first-round picks, a 2023 third-rounder, and a 2024 fourth-rounder to Houston. That trade has been called one of the worst in NFL history given Watson's struggles and injuries, but it established the baseline cost for an elite quarterback.
CBS Sports sources indicated the Bengals would demand at minimum three first-round picks plus additional assets. A quarterback-desperate team like the Raiders could theoretically offer the first overall pick, multiple future firsts, and additional assets to land Burrow. Cincinnati would then use that haul to rebuild around their new draft capital, selecting a quarterback at number one or trading down again for even more picks.
The path is convoluted and requires Burrow to take the unprecedented step of demanding out of Cincinnati. The 5 percent probability acknowledges this is speculation rather than serious expectation. But the chaos it would create makes it worth monitoring. If Burrow signals any willingness to leave, the entire draft landscape could shift overnight.
Dallas Cowboys: 4%
Dallas holds two first-round picks after acquiring Green Bay's selection in the Micah Parsons trade, giving the Cowboys ammunition to move up if they choose. The 4 percent probability acknowledges that capital, but the Cowboys' needs make a trade-up scenario unlikely. Dallas finished near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency and desperately needs help on that side of the ball.
Jerry Jones has historically been aggressive in pursuing big-name talent, and the Cowboys could theoretically package both first-rounders to move up for a quarterback or an elite defensive prospect. But with Dak Prescott under contract, the franchise is not in the market for a signal-caller, and using two firsts to move up for a defensive player would be a steep price. Dallas is better served using both picks to address multiple needs across their struggling defense.
The Cowboys' inclusion at 4 percent is more about their theoretical ability to make an offer than any realistic chance they actually do it. Dallas picking near the middle of the first round and holding two selections gives them flexibility, but trading up to number one does not align with their roster construction needs.
Bettors should keep their eye out for any news, player moves, or trade rumors before the pick on April 23rd in case the Raiders trade their mind or receive an offer they can't refuse!
Bet on the NFL First Pick Team with Kalshi Here
More of oddschecker
