2026 Oscar Best Actor Odds: Timothée Chalamet Dominates as Film's Biggest Night Approaches
The Oscars are almost here, and you can bet on which films, directors, actors, and actresses you think is going to win on Kalshi. Jack Borovitz breaks down the Kalshi odds for which actor from this year will win Best Actor.
Jack Borovitz - February 15, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
6 Minute Read2026 Oscar Best Actor Odds: Timothée Chalamet Dominates as Film's Biggest Night Approaches
The ceremony is 29 days away, and betting markets have crowned their king. With over $5.3 million traded on Kalshi, film fans are backing their picks with real money. Timothée Chalamet won the Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical and the Critics Choice Award, building momentum that shows in the numbers. At 79¢ for Yes shares, the ping-pong hustler has become the consensus pick, while last year's SAG winner faces a historic challenge to repeat.
With final voting soon and Conan O'Brien set to host on March 15 at 7pm ET, this is the final stretch before envelopes get opened. According to the latest Kalshi markets, here's where the betting public stands:
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Latest Best Actor Odds From Kalshi
Contestant | Chance |
|---|---|
Timothée Chalamet | 78% |
Leonardo DiCaprio | 10% |
Michael B. Jordan | 8% |
Ethan Hawke | 3% |
Wagner Moura | 3% |
Timothée Chalamet: 78% Chance
The runaway favorite. Chalamet's third Oscar nomination arrives for playing Marty Mauser, a table tennis hustler in Josh Safdie's sports dramedy Marty Supreme. At 30, he's the youngest male actor to earn three acting nominations since Marlon Brando in 1954, with previous bids for Call Me by Your Name and A Complete Unknown (which earned him last year's SAG Award). The A24 film scored nine nominations including Best Picture and Original Screenplay, giving Chalamet dual nominations as both actor and producer. Critics praised his "incendiary performance" as a confidence-fueled shark who believes greatness justifies any method, playing a character loosely based on real champion Marty Reisman who builds his empire through 1950s Manhattan table tennis hustling. He won Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical and Critics Choice for Best Actor, stacking precursors while fellow nominees split votes. At 79¢ Yes shares, markets are betting Chalamet finally breaks through after narrowly missing last year. If you're fading him, No shares at 22¢ offer value if voters reward a veteran instead.
Leonardo DiCaprio: 10% Chance
The seasoned contender. DiCaprio's eighth overall Oscar nomination (sixth for Best Actor) comes for playing Bob Ferguson in Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another, a washed-up ex-revolutionary forced back into the fight when corrupt military officer Col. Lockjaw resurfaces. The Warner Bros. thriller scored 13 nominations including Best Picture, won the Directors Guild Award, and swept Critics Choice and Golden Globes for Picture and Director. DiCaprio's role has him in a bathrobe for the entire film playing comic relief in PTA's father-daughter revolutionary saga, a deliberately ineffectual character whose absence wouldn't affect the outcome but whose performance critics called commanding. He won his only Best Actor Oscar a decade ago for The Revenant. At 10¢ Yes shares, betting markets give him longshot status in a year where One Battle After Another might sweep technical categories while Chalamet takes acting prizes. No shares at 91¢ suggest bettors think Anderson's momentum doesn't extend to DiCaprio's comedic turn.
Michael B. Jordan: 8% Chance
The historic breakthrough. Jordan's first Oscar nomination rewards his dual performance as identical twin brothers Elijah "Smoke" and Elias "Stack" Moore in Ryan Coogler's Sinners, the blues-steeped vampire epic that shattered records with 16 Oscar nominations, beating the previous mark of 14 set by All About Eve, Titanic, and La La Land. Playing twins returning to 1932 Mississippi to open a juke joint only to confront Irish vampires and KKK terror, Jordan differentiated the brothers through subtle physicality, voice work (Smoke's raspy lower octave versus Stack's buoyant tone), and temperament. Critics called it a "masterclass in nuance" that proves he's moved beyond action star to respected auteur. The film crossed $368 million worldwide and earned 97% on Rotten Tomatoes with Ludwig Göransson's blues-horror score earning raves. At 8¢ Yes shares, markets don't see the record nominations translating to acting gold even though Jordan would become only the sixth Black actor to win Best Actor if he takes it. No shares at 93¢ suggest Chalamet's momentum proves too strong.
Ethan Hawke: 3% Chance
The overdue longshot. Hawke's first Best Actor nomination arrives after two prior Supporting Actor nods for Training Day and Boyhood, neither converting to wins. Playing lyricist Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater's Blue Moon, Hawke transformed physically (standing in trenches to appear five feet tall, concealing his hair with a combover) for this one-night character study set at Sardi's on Oklahoma! opening night as Hart drinks through jealousy watching his former partner Richard Rodgers celebrate. The Sony Pictures Classics film earned 90% on Rotten Tomatoes with critics praising Hawke's "terrific performance" and "film-length monologue" that keeps audiences hanging on every word. At 3¢ Yes shares, this is a lottery ticket for those who think the Academy rewards decades of work with an overdue statue for a 55-year-old who's dedicated his life to the profession. Most bettors have accepted Hawke remains a bridesmaid.
Wagner Moura: 3% Chance
The history-making outsider. Moura became the first Brazilian nominated for Best Actor for his performance as Armando Solimões, a former professor hiding during Brazil's 1977 military dictatorship in Kleber Mendonça Filho's The Secret Agent. The Neon political thriller earned four nominations including Best Picture and International Feature, with Moura winning Cannes Film Festival's Best Actor award (the first South American to do so) and the Golden Globe for Drama (first Brazilian to win). Critics praised his "refined, textured performance that charts identity with political urgency," anchoring a timely drama about sticking to values when everything says otherwise. The film's density and non-English presentation may limit its immediacy for voters drawn to more overt catharsis, especially after SAG and BAFTA snubs. At 3¢ Yes shares, betting markets have written off Moura's chances despite the historic milestone his nomination represents. No shares at 98¢ suggest most bettors think Moura's groundbreaking nomination is the prize itself.
With final voting soon and the ceremony weeks away, Academy members make their choices soon. Chalamet could make history as one of the youngest winners ever. DiCaprio could add a second statue a decade after his first. Jordan could rewrite Oscar history as the sixth Black Best Actor winner. Hawke could finally get his due after 55 years. Moura could become Brazil's first Best Actor winner. One thing's certain: someone's walking away with gold on March 15.
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