2026 Oscar Best Supporting Actress Odds: Aunt Gladys Casts a Spell on Oscar Night as Madigan Surges Past Taylor
The Oscars are almost here, and you can bet on which films, directors, actors, and actresses you think is going to win on Kalshi. Jack Borovitz breaks down the Kalshi odds for which actress from this year will win Best Supporting Actress.
Jack Borovitz - March 15, 2026, 6:10 PM EDT
6 Minute Read2026 Oscar Best Supporting Actress Odds: Aunt Gladys Casts a Spell on Oscar Night as Madigan Surges Past Taylor
The ceremony is tonight, and the Best Supporting Actress race is the one category nobody can call. With over $3.4 million traded on Kalshi, bettors have watched this market flip completely in the last month. Three different actresses won the three biggest precursor awards: Amy Madigan took the SAG Actor Award and Critics Choice, Teyana Taylor claimed the Golden Globe, and Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA. That kind of three-way precursor split almost never happens. It's turned this into the most volatile acting market of Oscar season, and the chart tells the whole story: Taylor sat near 75% in January before cratering, while Madigan surged from the back of the pack after her SAG win to become the consensus pick.
With voting closed and Conan O'Brien set to host tonight at 7 PM ET on ABC, the envelopes are sealed. Here's where the Kalshi odds stand right now:
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Latest Best Supporting Actress Odds From Kalshi
Contestant | Chance |
|---|---|
Amy Madigan | 57% |
Teyana Taylor | 3% |
Wunmi Mosaku | 19% |
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | 3% |
Elle Fanning | 2% |
Amy Madigan (Weapons): 57% Chance
The SAG winner. The Critics Choice winner. The New York Film Critics Circle winner. At 75 years old, Madigan has Hollywood buzzing after a 40-year gap between Oscar nominations, the longest stretch ever for an actress. Her first nod came for 1985's Twice in a Lifetime. Her second came for playing Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger's horror hit Weapons, a parasitic witch who terrorizes a small community in just 14 minutes of screen time. If you went out for Halloween last year, you saw the Gladys wigs and smeared lipstick everywhere.
The SAG correlation is the engine behind Madigan's surge. Since 2009, the Actor Award winner in this category has gone on to win the Oscar all but once (Emily Blunt took SAG in 2018 for A Quiet Place, but Regina King won the Oscar for If Beale Street Could Talk). Madigan's acceptance speech at the Actor Awards went viral when she performed the iconic Weapons children's run on stage and declared "I'm a union person from Chicago, and they're not going to bust us." At 57¢ for Yes shares, that's been enough for the market. The case against? Weapons isn't nominated for Best Picture, and Madigan is the only nominee from her film. The last Supporting Actress winner who was the sole nominee from her film was Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona back in 2009. No shares at 44¢ give you real exposure if that pattern holds tonight.
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another): 25% Chance
The Golden Globe winner and the most dramatic odds collapse of the entire Oscar cycle. Taylor peaked near 75% on Kalshi back in January after her tearful Globe acceptance speech, where she called Paul Thomas Anderson "Paul 'Let Him Cook' Thomas Anderson" and dedicated the award to "brown sisters and little brown girls watching." She was the only nominee in this entire category to earn nominations at all five major ceremonies: the Oscars, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA.
Her performance as Perfidia Beverly Hills landed like a freight train. She only appears in the first act of One Battle After Another, but Perfidia, a pregnant revolutionary who fires machine guns with her belly on display before making the heartbreaking choice to leave her family, dominates every scene she touches. Anderson's film has 13 Oscar nominations and is the Best Picture frontrunner, which historically lifts its acting nominees. At 25¢ Yes shares, Taylor believers are counting on that coattail effect. The concern is straightforward: she hasn't won a major award since January, and the momentum has clearly left. In a race this fractured, though, 25% could be undervaluing the actress attached to the night's potential Best Picture winner.
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners): 19% Chance
The BAFTA winner. Mosaku became the first Black British actress to win BAFTA's Supporting Actress prize for her portrayal of Hoodoo priestess Annie in Ryan Coogler's Sinners. Coogler wrote the role specifically for her, and Mosaku has said she "found a part of herself in Annie, a part of my ancestral power and connection." She accepted the BAFTA while visibly pregnant, adding to a genuinely emotional moment on the night.
Sinners has a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, more than any film in Academy history, and that institutional support matters. Madigan's lone nomination from a horror movie doesn't carry the same weight across branches. The BAFTA-to-Oscar pipeline is thinner than SAG's (Kerry Condon won this exact BAFTA in 2023 and lost the Oscar to Jamie Lee Curtis), but 19¢ Yes shares are genuine value if Sinners catches a sweep. A win for Mosaku or Taylor would also mark the third consecutive year a Black woman won in this category, following Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Zoe Saldana. At 82¢ No shares, the market is confident that won't happen through Mosaku. The BAFTA faithful disagree.
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value): 3% Chance
Norwegian actress Lilleaas earned her first Oscar nomination for Joachim Trier's family drama, playing the younger sister who delivers one of the film's most devastating lines with zero theatricality. Critics loved the restraint. The market doesn't see it translating to a win against three precursor champions. Yes shares at 4¢ are a prayer, not a prediction.
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value): 2% Chance
Fanning's first Oscar nomination comes for playing a Hollywood actress navigating the complicated dynamics of the Borg family. It's a warm, layered performance that reviewers praised, but sharing the ballot with your own co-star while facing three precursor winners is tough math. At 2¢ Yes shares, this is the awards equivalent of a half-court heave at the buzzer. Fun to watch if it goes in. Probably won't.
Three precursor winners. One envelope. The ballots are sealed, and this is the tightest Supporting Actress market in recent Oscar memory. Whether you're riding Madigan's SAG pipeline at 57¢, banking on Taylor's Best Picture coattails at 25¢, or buying Mosaku's BAFTA energy at 19¢, the window to get your position in closes when the broadcast starts tonight.
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