New York City Mayor Odds: Zohran Mamdani Extends Lead Over Andrew Cuomo in Final Weeks
The race for New York Mayor has been shocking in 2025, with a major shake-up to the establishment coming in with Zohran Mamdani's dominance. Can Andrew Cuomo or Curtis Sliwa stop him, or will Mamdani cruise to victory in a few weeks? Peter Alexis takes a look at the latest New York City Mayor odds on Kalshi.
Peter Alexis - October 23, 2025, 3:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNew York City Mayor Odds: Zohran Mamdani Given 92% Chance of Becoming NYC Mayor on Kalshi
The race for New York City mayor has entered its final stretch, and the betting markets have spoken loudly. State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is the overwhelming favorite to win, sitting at 92% on Kalshi with just two weeks remaining before Election Day. The Democratic Socialist from Queens has surged since the summer, solidifying his position as the frontrunner after a campaign focused on housing affordability, public transit reform, and economic equity.
Former governor Andrew Cuomo is attempting a comeback of sorts, now running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani earlier this year. His odds, however, are slim—hovering around 7%, according to market traders. Cuomo has tried to position himself as a centrist alternative to Mamdani’s progressive platform, but his base of support appears fractured. Meanwhile, perennial Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa remains in the race, though his chances are under 1% and his presence may siphon off some anti-Mamdani votes that Cuomo desperately needs.
The incumbent, Eric Adams, officially bowed out of the race after months of poor polling and waning support within his own party. With Adams gone, the contest has transformed into a test of how far left the city’s political identity is willing to move.
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Latest New York City Mayor Election Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Zohran Mamdani | 92% |
Andrew Cuomo | 7% |
Curtis Sliwa | 1% |
From an odds standpoint, Mamdani’s grip on the race has only tightened. Over the summer, he was trading around 78%, but as his campaign gained momentum and Cuomo’s independent bid failed to ignite, traders quickly adjusted. Momentum, money, and message are all aligning in Mamdani’s favor, and the data shows little sign of reversal.
Could a last-minute surge from Cuomo or Sliwa shake things up? The market suggests not. Cuomo’s name recognition and established network haven’t translated into voter enthusiasm, while Sliwa’s limited fundraising and narrow appeal make him more of a spoiler than a contender. Unless an unprecedented swing occurs in the final two weeks, Mamdani’s win looks increasingly inevitable.
A Mamdani victory would mark a seismic shift in New York City politics. His Democratic Socialist agenda could reshape city priorities—especially in areas like public transportation, grocery access, and housing policy. Supporters see him as a transformative figure for working-class New Yorkers; detractors warn of economic risks tied to his reformist proposals. Either way, the markets have made their call: the city may be on the verge of a political realignment unlike anything seen in decades.
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