Federal Government Shutdown Odds: Is A Shutdown Resolution Imminent Amid New Senate Bill Passing?
The Federal Government Shutdown may finally come to an end, with a near 75% chance of passing the House vote on Wednesday. After the senate reached 60 votes on Monday night, can the House come through and put an end to the record shutdown? Peter Alexis examines the latest Government Shutdown odds with Kalshi as of November 10th.
Peter Alexis - November 10, 2025, 10:30 PM EST
5 Minute ReadHow Long Will Government Shutdown Last As Funding Bill Heads to House on Wednesday?
The federal government shutdown has now stretched beyond 40 days, marking the longest funding lapse in modern history. But a potential breakthrough has finally emerged. Late Monday night, the Senate approved a bipartisan funding bill by a 60–40 vote, with several Democrats crossing party lines to support the measure.
The bill now heads to the House, where its fate remains uncertain. Lawmakers were given a 36-hour notice to return to Washington for a possible vote on Wednesday, which could determine whether the shutdown ends this week or drags into November’s second weekend.
The latest Kalshi prediction markets suggest cautious optimism. The “More than 42 days” contract trades at 97%, meaning the shutdown is virtually certain to continue through Wednesday morning. However, odds drop steeply beyond that point, with just 26% expecting the shutdown to last past Thursday and 10% beyond Friday. Traders clearly expect the House to pass the funding bill on Wednesday evening, ending the standoff sometime late that night or early Thursday morning.
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Government Shutdown Length Odds
Length | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
More Than 42 Days | 97% |
More Than 43 Days | 26% |
More Than 44 Days | 10% |
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Government Shutdown Odds Breakdown
The key contract to watch remains “More than 42 days”, which has become a near-certainty as Wednesday looms. That aligns with the travel schedule and planned return of House members to D.C. by Tuesday night. The 97% probability shows that markets are almost unanimous: the shutdown will cross into Wednesday, but not much further.
At this point, the core uncertainty is whether the House can muster a majority to pass the Senate’s funding package. Prediction markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of passage on the first vote, which would effectively end the shutdown at some point late Wednesday night. A failed vote, however, could reset the entire process—forcing the Senate to redraft legislation and sending the odds of a prolonged shutdown soaring again.
Contracts extending beyond 43 and 44 days are still on the board, but the probabilities have cratered. With only 26% expecting the shutdown to extend past Thursday morning and 10% beyond Friday, traders see this as the final phase of the standoff. Still, that small tail risk reflects the fragile nature of the deal—one that depends on House leadership uniting enough votes to push it through.
In short, after six weeks of gridlock, markets expect the government to reopen within the next 48 hours. But if the House stumbles, the odds could flip fast—and the shutdown could quickly test the 45-day mark, rewriting yet another chapter in Washington’s long history of brinkmanship.
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