Government Shutdown Odds: Will There Be a Second Govt Shutdown at End of January?
The US Federal Government could be heading for at least another partial shutdown by the end of the week, with lawmakers scrambling to push through a resolution by January 31st. Will Trump and Schumer patch this, or will we get another shutdown at the end of the month? Peter Alexis analyzes the latest Government Shutdown Odds on Kalshi as of Thursday, January 29th.
Peter Alexis - January 29, 2026, 3:40 PM EST
4 Minute ReadCould There Be Another Federal Government Shutdown on January 31st?
The possibility of another US government shutdown is once again front and center, just weeks after Washington emerged from the longest federal shutdown in modern history. That shutdown, which stretched 43 days across November and December of 2025, left lawmakers publicly vowing not to repeat the same mistake. Yet here we are again, with a January 31 deadline looming and markets signaling real uncertainty over whether a deal gets done in time.
According to Kalshi, the odds of a partial government shutdown surged dramatically last week. On January 24, shutdown odds spiked from just 8% to over 75% as negotiations appeared to stall. Since then, those odds have cooled to around 57%, reflecting cautious optimism that a last minute agreement could still come together. That pullback suggests traders see genuine effort behind the scenes, but not enough certainty to rule out disruption.
At the center of the talks are Donald Trump and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who are racing toward a Friday night resolution. With less than 48 hours remaining, this market has effectively turned into a coin flip.
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Government Shutdown Odds
Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Yes | 57% |
No | 43% |
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Government Shutdown Odds Breakdown
The memory of the 43 day shutdown is still fresh, and that cuts both ways. On one hand, lawmakers understand the political and economic damage another prolonged standoff would cause. On the other, Trump has shown repeatedly that he is willing to use shutdown threats, and shutdowns themselves, as leverage in negotiations. He has never shied away from this tactic, especially when trying to force concessions on spending priorities.
This time, however, the calculus may be different. A second shutdown so soon after the last would not be on the same scale, but it would reinforce a narrative of dysfunction that even allies are eager to avoid. That is part of why the Kalshi market has drifted down from its 75% peak. Traders are clearly pricing in the idea that cooler heads could prevail at the last moment.
Still, the odds remain above 50% for a reason. The clock is tight and this administration has proven unpredictable. With so little time left, even a minor snag in negotiations could trigger a temporary lapse in funding. At roughly 57%, the government shutdown market reflects maximum uncertainty. Momentum has shifted away from a near certainty of shutdown, but confidence in a clean resolution is far from strong. This is exactly the type of scenario where last minute deals are common, yet last minute failures are just as plausible.
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