Trump Fed Chair Pick Odds: Will Kevin Hassett Get the Nod for Next Fed Chair Amid Jerome Powell Probe?
The race for the next Trump Fed Chair is reaching a peak, with the President expected to select in these first few weeks of 2026. Will he go with Kevin Hassett for the job, or take in Kevin Warsh who has made a late charge? Peter Alexis reviews the last Trump Fed Chair odds as of January 13, 2026.
Peter Alexis - January 13, 2026, 12:45 AM EST
4 Minute ReadTrump Fed Chair Pick Odds: Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh Deadlocked in Race for Next Fed Chair
Prediction markets have shifted sharply over the past few weeks as President Trump continues to hint at his preferences for the next Federal Reserve Chair. What once looked like a comfortable lead for Kevin Hassett has tightened into a near‑dead heat, with Kevin Warsh surging after a wave of reporting and Trump’s recent public praise. The Kalshi market now prices the race as essentially even, and traders have reacted quickly to every new signal coming out of the White House.
The landscape has also been shaped by Trump’s decision to launch a criminal probe into Jerome Powell over alleged excessive spending tied to the new Federal Reserve building. Many observers view the investigation as a political maneuver designed to push Powell out early and accelerate the appointment of a successor who aligns more closely with Trump’s desire for lower interest rates. Whether that strategy succeeds remains to be seen, but the market clearly believes it increases the urgency around the selection process.
While several names were once in the mix — including Rick Rieder, Judy Shelton, Scott Bessent, and Michelle Bowman — the field has consolidated into a two‑man race. Hassett and Warsh now dominate the odds, with Christopher Waller hanging on as a distant third. Below is where the top contenders stand.
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Latest Trump Fed Chair Pick Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Kevin Hassett | 40% |
Kevin Warsh | 39% |
Christopher Waller | 9% |
Kevin Hassett - 40% Chance
Hassett has slipped from his previous position as the clear favorite, but he remains narrowly ahead in the Kalshi market. As Trump’s former National Economic Council Director, he has long been viewed as the most ideologically aligned candidate.
His closeness to Trump has raised questions about Fed independence, yet markets still see him as a strong contender to lead a more rate‑cut‑friendly central bank. Hassett’s odds have dipped as Warsh gains momentum, but he remains firmly in the top tier and could easily reclaim the lead if Trump signals renewed support.
Kevin Warsh – 39% Chance
Warsh has made the biggest jump in recent weeks, rising from the mid‑20s to nearly match Hassett. His surge followed Trump’s comments elevating him into the “top tier” of candidates and renewed reporting that the two have been in frequent contact.
Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve Governor and is widely viewed as more market‑friendly and more experienced than many of the other names once floated. His odds reflect a growing belief that Trump may prefer a seasoned operator to guide the Fed through a period of political and economic volatility.
Christopher Waller – 9% Chance
Waller has fallen sharply as the race has narrowed. Once considered a plausible compromise candidate, his odds have dropped to single digits as the market increasingly views the contest as a direct showdown between Hassett and Warsh.
Waller remains respected inside the Fed and has been part of Trump’s broader list, but he no longer appears to be a central figure in the decision. His presence in the market now represents the slim possibility that Trump pivots away from the two Kevins late in the process.
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