Los Angeles Mayor Odds to Advance: Nithya Raman Overtakes Spencer Pratt As Late Votes Tally in California Primary

Los Angeles Mayor Odds to Advance: Is Nithya Raman Using Late Surge to Surpass Spencer Pratt as Final Votes Tally in LA Mayor Primary?

The Los Angeles mayoral race has flipped again as California’s slow vote count continues, with Karen Bass already locked into the November runoff and Nithya Raman now surging past Spencer Pratt for the second spot. Kalshi has Raman up to 78% to advance, while Pratt has fallen to 22% after looking like the likely challenger on election night.

The move is massive. Raman had been sitting around 30% earlier in the count, but late ballots have shifted the market sharply in her direction over the last 48 hours. That matches the broader California pattern, where many mail ballots are counted after election night and can meaningfully reshape close races. Recent reporting has also noted that Bass advanced while the second runoff spot remained undecided between Pratt and Raman.

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Latest Los Angeles Mayor Odds to Advance to Run-Off From Kalshi

Nithya Raman (78%)

Raman is now the clear favorite to advance after a dramatic late-count rally. The Los Angeles city council member had been running as the progressive alternative in the race, emphasizing housing, homelessness, renters, transit, and a broader argument that Bass has not moved fast enough on the city’s biggest problems.

The key for Raman is that late-counted ballots appear to be helping her close the gap and then flip the market entirely. A pre-primary UC Berkeley-L.A. Times poll showed the race essentially bunched together, with Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%, which suggested Raman’s base was real even when Pratt appeared to have the election-night momentum.

If Raman holds second place, the November race becomes a battle between two Democrats with very different governing brands. Bass would run on experience and incumbency, while Raman would try to turn the runoff into a referendum on housing, homelessness, and whether Los Angeles needs a more transformative progressive approach.

Spencer Pratt (22%)

Pratt looked like the story of election night. The former reality TV figure had surged as an outsider candidate, running on frustration with homelessness, public safety, wildfire recovery, and the broader “Save LA” message that helped him consolidate anti-incumbent energy against Bass.

The problem is that early election-night leads in California can be fragile. As more ballots have been counted, Pratt’s market position has collapsed from likely runoff candidate to major underdog. The shift does not erase the strength of his campaign, especially after reporting had him near 30% while Raman trailed around 22% earlier in the count, but it does show how quickly the late vote can change the race.

Pratt still has a path if the remaining ballots break differently, but Kalshi traders are no longer treating him as the favorite to face Bass. At 22%, the market is saying his election-night advantage may have been built on ballots that were counted earlier, while Raman’s base is showing up more strongly in the later batches.

Karen Bass (Advanced)

Bass has already advanced, but the fact that she did not win outright keeps the mayoral race alive into November. Under the city’s system, a candidate can win the office outright by clearing 50% in the primary. Bass fell short of that mark, so she now waits to see whether she will face Raman or Pratt in the runoff.

That opponent matters. Pratt would have given Bass a clearer ideological contrast against an outsider with conservative-leaning support, while Raman would create a more complicated Democratic-vs.-Democratic fight from the left. With Bass facing criticism over homelessness, wildfire recovery, and approval ratings, a Raman runoff could become much more policy-focused and potentially more uncomfortable than a Bass-Pratt matchup.

Los Angeles Mayor Election Outlook & Prediction

• Lean: Nithya Raman - 78% Chance Bet on the LA Mayor Race with Kalshi Here

The market has shifted hard toward Raman, and the 78% price now makes her the clear favorite to join Bass in November. Pratt is not fully dead at 22%, but the odds flip shows traders believe the late vote is moving decisively away from him.

The biggest takeaway is that Tuesday night’s story no longer looks secure. Pratt appeared to have the momentum when the early vote came in, but Raman has rallied from around 30% to nearly 80% in the advance market. Unless the remaining ballots reverse again, Los Angeles is heading toward a Bass vs. Raman runoff.

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