Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest NFL Odds for NFL Christmas Day
The Dallas Cowboys will take on the Washington Commanders on Christmas Day in a meaningless game on Netflix. Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs and battling for draft position, but the Cowboys have a more intact roster. Let's take a look at this Cowboys vs. Commanders prediction and best bet for Thursday, December 25th.
OC Staff - December 23, 2025, 1:00 PM EST
4 Minute ReadCowboys vs. Commanders Prediction: Will Dak Prescott, Cowboys Roll on Road Against Depleted Commanders on Christmas Day?
The NFC East, once a hotbed of playoff contention, now hosts a late-season clash between two struggling franchises, the Dallas Cowboys (6-8, #11 in conference) and the Washington Commanders (4-11, #14 in conference). Both teams arrive on a downward spiral, with the Cowboys losing their last three and the Commanders dropping their most recent contest. Dallas has struggled away from home with a 2-5 road record, mirroring Washington’s 2-5 home performance, setting the stage for a game where individual brilliance and specific matchups could dictate an otherwise uninspired outcome.
The narrative of this game hinges less on playoff implications and more on the individual performances that could shape draft positioning or simply offer a glimmer of hope. Two key matchups stand out as potential game-changers: the prolific arm of Dak Prescott against Washington's league-worst pass defense, and the dual-threat capabilities of Marcus Mariota challenging a vulnerable Cowboys' front.
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: Netflix
Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds
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Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction
Our primary focus immediately shifts to Dak Prescott's aerial assault against the Commanders' porous secondary. Washington's defense ranks a dismal 31st in QB Rating Allowed, effectively inviting opposing quarterbacks to light up the scoreboard. Prescott, even against top-10 pass defenses, has historically shown resilience, averaging 253.6 passing yards per game over five contests, though his 86.5 passer rating and 1.3 TD:INT ratio in those matchups indicate he can be pressured.
However, today he faces a unit far from "top-10." Our model projects Prescott for a robust 24 completions on 36 attempts for 290.1 yards and just 0.6 interceptions. This stark mismatch against the Commanders' generous pass defense suggests a significant opportunity for Prescott to rebound and inflate his statistics. In fact, our model identifies a substantial gap to exploit, flagging a high-value opportunity on Dak Prescott to exceed 290.0 passing yards at 1.91 (-110) odds, showing a significant edge with a 16.6% Expected Value.
Complementing Prescott’s expected strong outing is the potential for his top receiver, George Pickens, to feast against the same struggling Commanders' pass defense. Pickens is projected for 5.9 receptions and a substantial 84.0 receiving yards. Given Washington’s 31st ranking against the pass, Pickens finds himself in an incredibly favorable position. His combination of size and speed should prove a nightmare for a secondary that has consistently failed to contain opposing receivers.
This matchup offers more than just statistical projection; it presents a clear exploitable weakness. Our data corroborates this, indicating a strong opportunity with a 4.9% Expected Value on George Pickens to go over 84.0 receiving yards at 1.91 (-110) odds. The synergy between Prescott and Pickens, particularly against such a weak defensive unit, could lead to explosive plays and significant fantasy production.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders will lean on the unique skillset of Marcus Mariota, a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, to exploit the Cowboys' defensively challenged unit. While Mariota's passing projections (16/27, 197.0 yards, 0.4 INT) against even a 32nd-ranked Cowboys' pass defense (by QB Rating Allowed) might seem modest, his historical splits against top-10 pass defenses (78.4 passer rating, 181.7 pass YPG) suggest caution for his passing prowess. However, the true game-changer here is his rushing ability. Mariota averages 27.2 rush yards per game, with a projection of 19.0 rush yards in this contest.
This dual-threat aspect becomes critical when facing a Cowboys' defense that ranks 24th against the run (Rush Yds/Carry Rank). With both Dallas's run defense and pass defense struggling (32nd in QB Rating Allowed), Mariota's ability to extend plays with his legs, either by scrambling for first downs or buying time for receivers, will be paramount. This dynamism could neutralize whatever pass rush Dallas manages (ranked 24th in sacks) and force defenders to respect his mobility, creating openings where none might otherwise exist.
Ultimately, while Marcus Mariota’s dual-threat capability offers Washington their best chance to generate offense against a Cowboys defense that struggles across the board, the most decisive factor in this contest will be Dak Prescott's ability to consistently connect with George Pickens and the rest of his receiving corps against the Commanders' woeful pass defense. The sheer statistical advantage and the high-value opportunities identified in the prop market for Prescott’s passing yards and Pickens’ receiving yards underscore how profoundly this mismatch could impact the game's outcome.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Pick
- Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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