The American Express Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Wyndham Clark, Alex Smalley Impress in California?

The American Express Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Wyndham Clark, Alex Smalley Impress in California?

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Springs for the American Express, the first stop of the West Coast swing. The event was previously five rounds of competition, known for its celebrity pro-am hosted by Bob Hope. In 2012, the event changed to a traditional 72-hole format over three different courses with a 54-hole cut, not dissimilar to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The tournament has been hosted at numerous different courses in the Palm Springs area over the years before settling on the Stadium Course at PGA West, the Nicklaus Tournament Course (originally designed for the 1991 Ryder Cup), and La Quinta Country Club. This three-course rotation has been in existence since 2016, so I would not spend a ton of time deliberating over tournament results prior to that year.

While the star power has waned significantly at this event over the years, 2024 will see our strongest American Express field in recent memory. Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, and Rickie Fowler, among others, will all be making the trip to the desert. Of that group, Thomas is the only player making his 2024 debut, and it's worth noting that every single one of the last eight champions (since moving to this current course rotation) has played either the Sony Open or Sentry.

The PGA Tour heads to Palm Springs for the American Express, the first stop of the West Coast swing. The event was previously five rounds of competition, known for its celebrity pro-am hosted by Bob Hope. In 2012, the event changed to a traditional 72-hole format over three different courses with a 54-hole cut, not dissimilar to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The tournament has been hosted at numerous different courses in the Palm Springs area over the years before settling on the Stadium Course at PGA West, the Nicklaus Tournament Course (originally designed for the 1991 Ryder Cup), and La Quinta Country Club. This three-course rotation has been in existence since 2016, so I would not spend a ton of time deliberating over tournament results prior to that year.

While the star power has waned significantly at this event over the years, 2024 will see our strongest American Express field in recent memory. Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Wyndham Clark, and Rickie Fowler, among others, will all be making the trip to the desert. Of that group, Thomas is the only player making his 2024 debut, and it's worth noting that every single one of the last eight champions (since moving to this current course rotation) has played either the Sony Open or Sentry.

The American Express Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: January 18 - 24, 2024
• Opening Tee Time: 11:30 am
• Where to Watch: Golf Channel, Peacock, ESPN+

American Express: Course Preview

PGA West Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club

The 156 players will rotate across the first three courses during rounds 1-3, and those who make the cut will play their final round at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. Thus, the Stadium Course will see double the attention of the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club. Luckily for us, these three courses are extremely similar in terms of the questions they are posing.

The Stadium Course was designed by Pete Dye as a West Coast companion to the acclaimed TPC Sawgrass. The similarities are hard to ignore, as the Stadium Course even features its own island 17th green. The Stadium Course is by the most interesting, notable, and challenging of three American Express host venues. The Nicklaus Tournament Course typically plays as the second-easiest course, and La Quinta Country Club historically provides the least pushback. Both Nicklaus Tournament and La Quinta do not have ShotLink data, so we simply have far more important on the Stadium Course. Last year, La Quinta featured a scoring average of 69.58, the Stadium Course came in at 69.26, and Nicklaus Tournament followed at 68.72. This was an anomaly, however. Each of the last five years, the order has been (in descending difficulty): Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club.

Last year, the Stadium Course played as the 10th-easiest course on the PGA Tour, and each of the last three years, it has ranked inside the top 10 in this category. Don't get it twisted; there is trouble at every turn on the Stadium Course, similar to other hazardous courses such as TPC Twin Cities, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National. Last year, the Stadium Course ranked second out of 45 courses in penalty strokes per round, and the prior year, it ranked first. Yet still, it played as one of the easiest courses on Tour. This is what we would call a high variance golf course. Birdies are available, but there are bogeys at every turn as well.

I'll keep my breakdown of the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club brief, as both are very similar, and while I am mainly focusing on the Stadium Course, I would place an increased emphasis on scoring statistics (Birdies or Better Gained, Opportunities Gained, Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions) to account for the fact that two of the four rounds will be played at extremely benign, straightforward, scoreable desert tracks.

Both courses feature fewer hazards than PGA West, and far more is out in front of the player. The Nicklaus Tournament Course features a driving accuracy percentage of 67.8% and a greens-in-regulation percentage of 70%. La Quinta Country Club features narrower fairways and smaller greens, but it's shorter and with less outward trouble in play. The challenge of both courses comes in the par threes, as all eight par threes at La Quinta and Nicklaus Tournament respectively rank in the top eight toughest at each course. The problem with these courses is that as par 72s, they are simply too short for the modern player. Not to mention the fact that the ball travels even farther in the heat of Palm Springs. Not a single par four at La Quinta or Nicklaus Tournament measures over 470 yards, and both courses feature four reachable par fives. Ultimately, the name of the game at both of these tracks is wedge play and putting inside 15 feet. This is about as generic as it gets for tournament play, even by PGA Tour standards.

American Express Key Stats

• Opportunities Gained
• Strokes Gained Total: Easy Scoring Conditions
• Putting 5-15 Feet

American Express: Outright Picks

Wyndham Clark (+5000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

While Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, and Xander Schauffele are sure to command all the attention at the top of the odds boards, my numbers suggest that Wyndham Clark’s fit is just as enticing. Clark has already played this event five times, making four cuts, with two top-20 finishes. The reigning U.S. Open champion also has a commendable track record at many of the comparative courses I am looking at, with a 27th this year at TPC Sawgrass, a 10th at TPC Scottsdale, and fifth at TPC Twin Cities. Clark has already displayed an expertise on water-logged, risk/reward, TPC style architecture, and his track record makes sense when we consider the skill-set. Clark is a great overall driver of the ball, an elite bunker player, who excels both with his wedges and long irons. He ranks top-15 in this field in putting from five to 15 feet, birdies or better gained, and par five scoring. Clark was able to shake the rust off in his season debut at Kapalua, a crucial pre-requisite to success at the American Express. I’m expecting a strong showing out of Clark this week in the desert.

Alex Smalley (+10000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds

On the surface, Alex Smalley missed the cut on the number last week at the Sony Open. On deeper inspection, the Duke University standout was one of the best ball-strikers in the field across Thursday and Friday, gaining over two strokes both off the tee and on approach. Unfortunately, a balky putter (-5.7) prevented him from even seeing the weekend. Smalley bogeyed two of his final three holes to miss the cut in unspectacular fashion, and I presume he will be re-invigorated by the near miss as he now travels to a far more comfortable track for him. Smalley has recorded back-to-back top-25s in his only two appearances at the American Express, gaining over eight strokes on approach in his most recent appearance. The 27-year-old remains one of the best overall approach players in this field, and he also ranks top-20 in good drive percentage, sand save percentage, opportunities gained, and easy scoring conditions. Coming off one of the better ball-striking performances in the field last week, Smalley presents tremendous value in Palm Springs.

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