WNBA MVP Odds: Can Caitlin Clark Finally Dethrone A'ja Wilson, Win First WNBA MVP Award in Third Season?
The WNBA MVP race has been dominated by A'ja Wilson over the last six years, with the Aces star winning four of them including back-to-back titles. Can Caitlin Clark finally outdo her in 2026? Peter Alexis assesses the WNBA MVP Odds ahead of the season tip off on Friday, May 8th.
OC Staff - May 8, 2026, 11:30 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadWNBA MVP Odds: Caitlin Clark, A'ja Wilson Expected to Duel for Coveted MVP Award
The WNBA MVP race opens with a familiar name on top, as A’ja Wilson is favored at +225 after winning her fourth MVP last season and her second straight. Wilson has now won four MVPs in six years, with only Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart interrupting her run during that stretch, and both of those former winners now sit inside the Liberty’s star-loaded ecosystem.
Caitlin Clark is right behind at +250, making this look like a two-woman race before the season even begins. Clark enters her third WNBA season as the league’s most gifted long-range shooter and the driving force behind Indiana’s rise, but the MVP formula is still about more than box-score brilliance. Team success matters, and that is what gives Wilson the early edge.
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WNBA MVP Odds
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WNBA MVP Odds Breakdown
A’ja Wilson (+225) Check out the best odds on BetMGM Sportsbook
Wilson remains the standard because she pairs elite production with winning. She averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.3 blocks and 1.6 steals last season while leading Las Vegas to another championship, reinforcing why voters continue to trust her as the safest MVP profile in the league. The Aces remain title contenders, and Wilson’s two-way impact gives her a cleaner path than anyone else if Las Vegas stays near the top of the standings. Voter fatigue is the only real concern after back-to-back MVPs and four total wins, but her statistical dominance and championship-level team context make her the rightful favorite.
Caitlin Clark (+250) Check out the best odds on Caesars Sportsbook
Clark is the obvious challenger because her offensive ceiling changes every Indiana possession. She has already established herself as the face of the Fever and one of the league’s defining stars, with her career averages sitting at 18.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists. The question is whether Indiana wins enough. The Fever are no longer just a rebuilding story around Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, but MVP voters typically want a candidate anchoring one of the league’s strongest teams. If Clark leads Indiana into the top tier, the award race could flip quickly. If the Fever settle into the middle of the playoff picture, Wilson’s team-success edge may be too much to overcome.
Napheesa Collier (+900) Check out the best odds on BetMGM Sportsbook
Collier is the most credible challenger outside the top two because she has both the numbers and the winning infrastructure. Minnesota finished with the league’s best regular-season record last year, led the WNBA in scoring at 86.1 points per game, and Collier remained the centerpiece of everything Cheryl Reeve built. She has been one of the league’s most complete two-way players, with elite efficiency and defensive versatility, but her early-season ankle recovery is the major reason she is not priced closer to Wilson and Clark. If Collier returns at full strength and the Lynx stay near the top of the standings, +900 could look short very quickly.
Breanna Stewart (+1300) Check out the best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Stewart’s price is longer than her résumé because the Liberty are so loaded. She is a two-time MVP, still one of the league’s most polished two-way forwards, and remains a central piece of a New York team that enters the season as the title favorite. The issue is vote share. Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones and new addition Satou Sabally give the Liberty multiple stars who can drive winning on any given night, which can make it harder for one player to dominate the MVP narrative. Stewart can absolutely win the award again if New York owns the regular season and she leads the production, but the roster depth that makes the Liberty so dangerous also complicates her individual path.
Paige Bueckers (+1600) Check out the best odds on Caesars Sportsbook
Bueckers is the upside swing in this market. She finished among the league’s top scorers last season, averaging 19.2 points while showing the shot-making and poise that made her one of the most hyped guards in the sport. The challenge is the same one most young MVP candidates face: winning enough games to stay in the conversation. Dallas needs to take a meaningful step for Bueckers to be more than a numbers candidate, especially in a race with Wilson, Clark and Collier carrying stronger team contexts. At +1600, her case is about breakout possibility, not current probability.
Sabrina Ionescu (+2200) Check out the best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
Ionescu is the best longshot among the top six because she could become the lead guard on the league’s best team. New York’s title odds reflect the depth around her, with Stewart, Jones and Sabally forming an elite frontcourt mix, but Ionescu still has the clearest perimeter engine role on the roster. Her MVP path would likely require the Liberty to post the best record in the league while she separates statistically as the team’s offensive organizer and late-game shot-maker. The price is long because New York has so many stars, but if the Liberty dominate and Ionescu becomes the defining guard of that run, +2200 has a realistic narrative path.
WNBA ODDS
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