Arizona vs. SMU Opt-Out Tracker, Transfers, Injuries, Starting Lineups, Best Bet for Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
The Arizona Wildcats will take on the SMU Mustangs in the Trust & Will Holiday Bowl on Friday evening in San Diego. Jack Borovitz analyzes this Arizona vs. SMU transfer portal and opt-out tracker for Friday, January 2nd in the Holiday Bowl.
Jack Borovitz - December 28, 2025, 7:30 PM EST
5 Minute ReadArizona vs. SMU Preview: Who Is Opting-Out, Injured for Trust & Will Holiday Bowl on Friday, January 2nd
The Trust & Will Holiday Bowl features a Friday night clash between hot teams riding contrasting momentum into San Diego. Arizona sits as a -3 favorite after the line opened at -1.5, a modest 1.5-point move reflecting the Wildcats' five-game winning streak and dominant defensive performance down the stretch. The total dropped 1 point from 52.5 to 51.5, showing market recognition of Arizona's stingy defense that allowed just 17 points per game during the Wildcats' win streak. Both teams enter seeking a 9-win or better season, but Arizona brings surging confidence while SMU looks to end a five-game bowl losing streak after missing the ACC Championship Game.
Arizona enters riding its strongest finish in years after capping the regular season with a 23-7 Territorial Cup triumph over Arizona State. Quarterback Noah Fifita earned First Team All-Big 12 and Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year honors after throwing for 2,494 yards and 24 touchdowns against just four interceptions (64.9% completion), adding 98 rushing yards and three rushing scores. The Wildcats lost All-American receiver Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL Draft (eighth overall to Carolina), but Fifita spread production across multiple weapons including leading receiver Kris Hutson (740 yards, 57 catches), Chris Hunter, Luke Wysong, Tre Spivey, and Javin Whatley. Arizona's defense ranks fourth nationally in pass defense (155.9 yards per game allowed), holding eight consecutive opponents under 200 passing yards while ranking top 20 nationally in scoring defense (18.9 PPG allowed). Safety Dalton Johnson anchored the secondary with 97 tackles, four interceptions, and seven pass breakups. Running back Ismail Mahdi added 785 rushing yards, providing balanced offensive attack. Arizona went 8-4 against the spread this season (6-2 as favorites) and posted a 4-1 ATS mark during its five-game winning streak.
SMU enters after heartbreaking disappointment, losing 38-35 to California in the regular season finale to miss the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff berth. Quarterback Kevin Jennings battled ankle injuries throughout the season but still posted 3,363 passing yards and 26 touchdowns despite throwing 10 interceptions. Jennings confirmed he will play in the bowl game after speculation about his status. The Mustangs rank 12th nationally in passing (283.5 yards per game, best in ACC) and 30th in scoring (32.9 PPG), featuring deep threat wide receiver Romello Brinson (515 yards, 3 TDs through mid-season), Jordan Hudson (returned from Week 1 elbow injury), short-yardage specialist Yamir Knight, and tight end duo RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner (combined 5 touchdown receptions). Running back T.J. Harden provides the ground game with 747 yards and seven touchdowns despite SMU ranking 90th nationally in rushing (135.5 YPG). The Mustangs' pass defense ranks 135th nationally (335 yards per game allowed), getting exposed by California freshman quarterback Jaron Keawe-Sagapolutele (330 yards, 4 TDs), Baylor's Sawyer Robertson (440 yards), and TCU's Josh Hoover (379 yards). SMU's run defense ranks 11th nationally (3.0 yards per carry allowed), providing strength against the ground attack. SMU went 5-6-1 ATS this season and enters on a five-game bowl losing streak dating to the 2012 Hawaii Bowl.
Looking for advanced AI predictions and props to enhance your CFB betting? Try out oddschecker+ now on this limited time 7-day free trial!
Arizona vs. SMU Date, Time, and Where to Watch Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: FOX
Arizona vs. SMU Odds
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl | Odds |
|---|---|
Arizona -3 (-105) | SMU +3 (-115) |
Arizona ML (-155) | SMU ML (+130) |
Over 51.5 Total Points | Under 51.5 Total Points |
Click here for the latest College Football Odds
Arizona vs. SMU Opt-Outs Tracker & Injuries
Arizona Transfer Portal
- G Michael Wooten (230 snaps)
Arizona Potential Opt-Outs
- CB Treydan Stukes
- S Genesis Smith
Arizona Injuries
- RT Tristan Bounds (didn’t play in final two games)
- NT Tiaoalii Savea (last played in Week 11)
SMU Transfer Portal
- OLB DJ Warner (207 snaps)
SMU Potential Opt-Outs
- QB Kevin Jennings (will play)
- WR Romello Brinson
- TE RJ Maryland
- TE Matthew Hibner
- OG Logan Parr
- DL Jeff M'ba
- S Isaiah Nwokobia
Arizona vs. SMU Odds Breakdown - Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Arizona's pass defense creates the matchup nightmare for SMU's passing-heavy attack, with the Wildcats ranking fourth nationally allowing just 155.9 yards per game while holding eight consecutive opponents under 200 passing yards (tied for longest streak in Big 12 since Missouri in 2004). Fifita distributes to multiple receivers after losing McMillan, with Hutson (740 yards), Hunter, Wysong, Spivey, and Whatley all contributing in Seth Doege's spread system. Arizona ranks 76th nationally in rushing (4.2 yards per carry) but Mahdi's 785 yards provide balance, and the Wildcats rank 32nd in scoring (32.6 PPG) with efficient red zone execution. Arizona's defense ranks third nationally in turnover margin with safety Dalton Johnson (97 tackles, 4 interceptions) leading a secondary that excels against the pass. The Wildcats allowed just 17 points per game during their five-game winning streak, dominating opponents defensively while Fifita limited mistakes (24 TDs, 4 INTs) and spread production across the receiving corps.
SMU's passing offense ranks 12th nationally (283.5 yards per game, best in ACC) but faces its toughest test against Arizona's elite secondary that held Baylor (2nd nationally in passing) to manageable numbers in a 41-17 Arizona win. Jennings' 3,363 passing yards and 26 touchdowns came against defenses far weaker than Arizona's unit, as California's freshman quarterback (330 yards, 4 TDs), Baylor's Robertson (440 yards), and TCU's Hoover (379 yards) all exposed SMU's 135th-ranked pass defense. The Mustangs' 11th-ranked run defense (3.0 yards per carry allowed) provides strength, but Arizona's balanced attack doesn't rely solely on the ground game. SMU ranks 90th in rushing (135.5 YPG) despite Harden's 747 yards, forcing the Mustangs into one-dimensional situations where Jennings must beat Arizona's elite secondary with his arm. SMU's five-game bowl losing streak includes two losses to Clemson and a blowout to Penn State in the 2024 College Football Playoff, showing struggles in big moments.
From a market perspective, the line opened at Arizona -1.5 before moving to -3, reflecting money on the surging Wildcats riding momentum from their five-game winning streak. The total dropped 1 point from 52.5 to 51.5, accounting for Arizona's defensive dominance down the stretch (17 PPG allowed during win streak). Arizona went 8-4 ATS this season (6-2 as favorites) and posted a 4-1 ATS mark during the five-game winning streak, covering three consecutive games to close the regular season. SMU went 5-6-1 ATS and enters having lost to California 38-35 as favorites in a game they controlled until the final minute. The Mustangs' 32.9 PPG scoring average ranks 30th nationally but came against defenses far weaker than Arizona's unit. The common opponent test strongly favors Arizona, as the Wildcats demolished Baylor 41-17 while SMU lost to the Bears 48-45 in double overtime in the season opener.
Arizona vs. SMU Best Bet
- Pick: Arizona -3 (-110) Check out these best odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
The matchup dynamics overwhelmingly favor Arizona's surging defense against SMU's pass-heavy offense that ranks 135th nationally in pass defense while facing the Wildcats' fourth-ranked passing defense. Arizona held eight consecutive opponents under 200 passing yards while ranking fourth nationally allowing just 155.9 yards per game, creating a nightmare scenario for SMU's 12th-ranked passing attack (283.5 YPG) that struggles when forced into one-dimensional situations. Jennings battled ankle injuries all season and now faces the toughest secondary he's encountered, while Fifita spread production across multiple receivers (Hutson, Hunter, Wysong, Spivey, Whatley) in a balanced attack that ranks 32nd in scoring. The 1.5-point line move from Arizona -1.5 to -3 represents sharp money recognizing the Wildcats' five-game winning streak momentum and defensive dominance (17 PPG allowed during streak). Arizona went 8-4 ATS this season (6-2 as favorites) and covered four of five games during the win streak, while SMU went 5-6-1 ATS and enters on a five-game bowl losing streak dating to 2012. The common opponent test decisively favors Arizona (41-17 over Baylor) versus SMU (48-45 double OT loss to Baylor), and the Mustangs' 135th-ranked pass defense cannot contain Fifita's balanced distribution against inferior competition than Arizona's unit faced. SMU's struggles in big moments (ACC Championship Game losses, CFP blowout) contrast sharply with Arizona's clutch performances down the stretch, and the Wildcats seek just the fifth 10-win season in school history while riding legitimate momentum. Lay the field goal with Arizona as they cruise to victory in San Diego behind elite pass defense and balanced offensive attack.
More College Football Odds
Affiliate Disclosure.
We are not a gambling or betting operator, but we receive a commission from these companies when we advertise their brands and refer customers to them (affiliate marketing). We provide information, odds information and links to websites of these companies. Some of the information made available on our site may be positioned as a result of a commission paid to us by a third party. We do not take or place bets/transactions and any information on Our Products is provided for entertainment purposes only.
