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Super Bowl Odds Update After Week 1 of the NFL Season

For many, a number of offseason changes casted doubt on the Chiefs' ability to get back to the promised land in 2022. What did their season-opening win do for their chances of accomplishing just that?
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Super Bowl Odds Update After Week 1 of the NFL Season

This week, the Bills didn't exactly pull an upset over the Rams on Thursday night, but what was surprising was the nature in which they dominated the defending Super Bowl champions. And that kicked off an entire Week 1 full of upsets, crazy finishes, and -- surprisingly or not -- more dominant performances.

Among other notable outcomes, the Steelers pulled off a nail-biter over the Bengals in overtime, while the Colts and Texans tied, and the Vikings trounced the Packers. Now that the smoke has cleared, though, which outcomes were truly the most impactful? In other words, which ones have led to the biggest movement in teams' quest toward a Super Bowl? How else to determine just that than by looking at the pre-and post-Week 1 odds?

SB Odds - Post Week 1
Change in Super Bowl odds pre- versus post- Week 1 to identify biggest swing games.
TeamWeek 1 OddsWeek 2 OddsChange
Buffalo Bills+550+50050
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7007000
Green Bay Packers10001300-300
Kansas City Chiefs1000800200
Los Angeles Rams12001500-300
Los Angeles Chargers14001300100
San Francisco 49ers16002200-600
Denver Broncos180018000
Baltimore Ravens20001700300
Cincinnati Bengals22002500-300
Dallas Cowboys220022000
Philadelphia Eagles22001600600
Indianapolis Colts250025000
Minnesota Vikings350025001000
Arizona Cardinals400040000
Las Vegas Raiders40005000-1000
Miami Dolphins400030001000
New Orleans Saints40003500500
Tennessee Titans400040000
Cleveland Browns500040001000
New England Patriots50007000-2000
Washington Commanders700060001000
Pittsburgh Steelers900070002000
Carolina Panthers1300015000-2000
Jacksonville Jaguars13000130000
New York Giants13000130000
New York Jets1300020000-7000
Chicago Bears15000100005000
Detroit Lions15000130002000
Seattle Seahawks15000150000
Atlanta Falcons20000200000
Houston Texans25000200005000


Kansas City Chiefs

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Chiefs entered the new year tied for the third-best odds to win the Lombardi Trophy. They found themselves in the company of the Green Bay Packers, trailing only the odds-on favorite Buffalo Bills, as well as Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They came in ahead of the defending champs, but there were a lot of doubters after an offseason that saw them lose speedster wideout Tyreek Hill and veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu.

It turns out, that those details don't really matter when you have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and a whole slew of new receivers to lean on. The Chiefs scored 44 points with 6 players hauling in 3 or more balls and 4 coming down with catches for six. And defensively, they were able to hold Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to less than 300 yards of offense with 3 sacks to their credit.

At week's end, Kansas City's raw betting odds improved by 200 to put them alone at third overall. That movement is the equivalent of a league-high 2% increase to their implied probability of winning the Super Bowl, and if this week's performance is any indication they'll be gaining on the Bills and Bucs with every week.

Chicago Bears

By measure of a positive odds change and ignoring implied probability, the Bears were this week's biggest winner. After entering the year with mixed but mainly low expectations, after accounting for a new (and likely better) coach at the helm, a highly touted second-year quarterback, an unimproved offensive line, not to mention one departed superstar defender with another caught up in a contract issue with the team, it's easy to see why the Bears were so far down the list of Super Bowl contenders.

One week in and the waters continue to be muddled, not just for those same reasons but almost quite literally. The Bears' 19-10 win over the 49ers took place in one of the worst playing environments in years, as heavy rains hammered Chicago and the recently facelifted Soldier Field. The playing surface was full of puddles, and the downpour limited Justin Fields and Trey Lance to a combined 285 yards passing. It's hard to tell if or how much either of the two young passers had improved from the last time we saw them in a regular season game.

Regardless of that narrative, the Bears have stoked a fire with their new coach now 1-0 through his first week. It follows that the oddsmakers have cut the odds by 5000 to +10000. So, Chicago's still a long shot to make a run through the NFC and to a title, but if you got the money and the belief a $100 bet would add another $10,000 of cold hard cash to your wallet.


Green Bay Packers

The Packers are another NFC North team that saw their Week 1 performance both change the way the NFL fanbase sees as well as the way the betting public views them. Of course, there was enough preseason love for Aaron Rodgers and company -- however limited the supporting company is -- to put them in a tie for third among the championship favorites. Yet here we are one week -- and one loss -- removed, and there's been a negative shift across all fronts.

On the road, the Pack were embarrassed by the new-look Vikings in a divisional showdown. Minnesota's pass-happy offense, conducted by former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell, led the home squad to a 23-7 win as Kirk Cousins connected with Justin Jefferson for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns, exposing massive gaps in the Green Bay defensive approach. Offensively, Rodgers scraped to less than 200 yards with 1 pick and 4 sacks, and he had his touchdown streak ended in very poor fashion. He got no help from his receivers, and it wasn't enough to try and involve Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon out of the backfield.

There are a lot of questions in Packer land, and surprisingly enough more of that falls on the offense than the defense. The lack of faith on behalf of sportsbooks and bettors alike has caused Green Bay's raw odds to drop them into a tie for fourth at +1300, indicating a near 2% downturn in their implied odds to win the Super Bowl.

New York Jets

The Jets are who we all thought they were, and probably worse. Following years of letdowns (since the Sanchez days), things were looking up around the draft time when New York aced their test, adding Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall to their young core of players around Zach Wilson. But as we know now, the young quarterback was sidelined for Week 1 due to a knee injury suffered in the preseason, pushing Joe Flacco to lead duty against his former team, the Baltimore Ravens.

On Sunday afternoon, the Ravens stuck it to Flacco and the rest of Robert Saleh's team, by a count of 24-9. New York tallied north of 300 passing yards, but they were hollow yards in a losing effort. Flacco was sacked three times and threw one interception, while the Jets lost a fumble to boot.

The defense was a different story, as it primarily held up its end of the bargain against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore attack. The former MVP notched three touchdown passes, but his passing and rushing totals were very average. And on an individual basis, Sauce Gardner looked every bit of the Darrelle Revis-lite part. Over 34 cover snaps, Pro Football Focus listed him as allowing one catch for eight yards with one forced incompletion. What more can you ask?

That being said, the offense needs to prove more functional and not put the defense in bad spots. Until then, it's almost certain they'll continue to lose games and work their way down toward the bottom of the bottom in odds. They're now tied for last at +20000 odds after starting the year ahead of 5 teams at +13000. In the rare event you believe in Zach Wilson to channel his inner Mahomes when he returns to health, they now carry some semblance of value.

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Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.


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