Super Bowl Odds: Every Team's 2023 Super Bowl Odds Following Week 3

Did week 3 of the NFL season affect your team's Super Bowl chances? Brett Oswalt breaks down the Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams after Week 3.
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Super Bowl Odds: Every Team's 2023 Super Bowl Odds Following Week 3

The NFL's third week got off to a very non-eventful start when the Browns bested the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. The 29-17 Cleveland win pushed them to 2-1 ahead of the 1-2 division rivals, but all in all it didn't do much for the Browns' Super Bowl odds, and predictably so it dropped the Steelers marginally in the oddsmakers' standings.

That doesn't mean that there weren't any meaningful outcomes this week. There were wins of all kinds -- from narrow to convincing -- across the number of games, and in the same way losses of varying severity. Which ones have had the largest influence on sportsbooks' latest odds to win Super Bowl 57?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams After Week 3

SB Odds - Post Week 3
Change in Super Bowl odds pre- versus post- Week 3 to identify biggest swing games.
TeamWeek 2 OddsWeek 3 OddsChange
Buffalo Bills4004000
Kansas City Chiefs700750-50
Philadelphia Eagles1600850750
Green Bay Packers1400900500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7001000-300
Los Angeles Rams13001500-200
Baltimore Ravens180018000
San Francisco 49ers20001800200
Miami Dolphins25001800700
Los Angeles Chargers14002000-600
Denver Broncos250025000
Minnesota Vikings18002800-1000
Cincinnati Bengals35003000500
Dallas Cowboys350035000
Indianapolis Colts40003500500
New Orleans Saints40005000-1000
Cleveland Browns600050001000
Las Vegas Raiders40006000-2000
Jacksonville Jaguars800060002000
Arizona Cardinals50007000-2000
New England Patriots50007000-2000
New York Giants700070000
Tennessee Titans50008000-3000
Detroit Lions800080000
Carolina Panthers15000100005000
Washington Commanders800015000-7000
Pittsburgh Steelers800015000-7000
Chicago Bears1000020000-10000
Atlanta Falcons25000250000
New York Jets1500025000-10000
Seattle Seahawks2000050000-30000
Houston Texans2500050000-25000

Super Bowl Odds Risers

Philadelphia Eagles

After an eventful offseason, the Eagles are off to a torrid start to the regular season. A much-improved Jalen Hurts has his squad out to a 3-0 start on the back of two straight wins of at least 16 points. On Sunday, they went on the road to Washington and bested the Commanders in every way, totaling 400 yards on offense and sacking quarterback Carson Wentz on 9 occasions.

With performances like that, Philadelphia has convinced many that they are one of the single best teams in the league, rating at or near the top of many power rankings boards. At Pro Football Focus, they are sixth and have a 90% chance at the playoffs. Their chances at the title now sit at 8%.

In comparison, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Eagles' odds at +750 after opening the year at +2200 and being bet down to +1600 in the two weeks that ensued. That puts their implied probability at 10.5% - a league-best gain of 4.6% based on this week's victory. They don't seem poised to slow down anytime soon.

Carolina Panthers

In Carolina, the Baker Mayfield era hasn't exactly been the turning of a new leaf for Matt Rhule and company. Losses to the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants put things into question before the Panthers put a stop to their losing streak with a divisional win against the New Orleans Saints.

It wasn't a pretty way of getting to 1-2. Mayfield completed less than 50% of his passes and was bailed out by big plays from Laviska Shenault and the defense, which caused a fumble and notched two interceptions. Nevertheless, Christian McCaffrey exceeded 100 yards and Carolina kept themselves in a three-way tie for second in the division behind the Buccaneers.

The bookmakers looked past the sloppiness enough for it to matter, too. Since their opening loss, the Panthers' title odds got longer only to now be shorter than where they started. At +10000, they gained +5000 on the week and rose to 25th among all teams. Of note, they passed the Commanders and Steelers, though that might not be the biggest victories given those two offenses' inconsistencies. The outcome of the game was substantial, but it isn't anything to spark conviction in the Panthers' rest-of-season outlook.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are off to a 2-1 start but find themselves falling among the top championship favorites. What did this week's loss do for their betting odds?

Of all the oddball up-and-down teams around the league, the Bucs might be the most intriguing among them. Not only was the lead-up to the new season eventful and strange, but since then they've only given bettors mixed feelings. After back-to-back wins in Weeks 1 and 2, Tom Brady and the team went the other direction with a narrow 14-12 loss at home to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Absent a suspended Mike Evans, and an injured Chris Godwin and Julio Jones, the offense was very okay, having run for 34 yards with three sacks and 271 passing yards. They were 2-for-11 on third down and lost two fumbles.

There might be a reason for optimism given the injuries and the tough matchup, but oddsmakers still saw it as a hit to Tampa's chances. Their odds shifted from +700 to +1000, indicative of a 3.4% drop in implied probability. They now rate fifth behind the Bills, Chiefs, Eagles, and Packers even if they have the true inside track on their division. A primetime tilt against Kansas City could result in a much larger move in either direction come Week 5.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson has really been down in the dumps in his first year since leaving the Broncos. But after getting their revenge in Week 1, the Seahawks have reverted back to the standard set in their preseason odds -- and even worse. Their most recent outcome, a 27-23 home loss to the Falcons, is primarily on a sliding star-less defense.

The defense came out of the game with 2 turnovers, but they were trampled for 179 yards on the ground and allowed 9 yards per pass. Atlanta was able to put together enough of a mix for the road win, while Geno Smith -- despite his best effort -- emerged to see his team positioned in a tie with the 49ers and Cardinals at 1-2 in the NFC West. That itself isn't enough to warrant an additional helping of doubt, but again, the defense is 31st in PFF's team grade.

It's difficult to win games in this league, and that's especially the case with this defense against an upcoming schedule like the Seahawks face. They draw the 11th-hardest strength of schedule the remainder of the year, including a road matchup with a strong Lions team this week, and then games against the Chargers, Buccaneers, Chiefs, and two versus the defending-champion Rams. The raw odds drop of 30000 is very much deserved and puts them in the company of only the Houston Texans at the very bottom of the NFL.

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Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.

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