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2022 NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Nick Sirianni Leads the Field With Brian Daboll Charging Up After Five Weeks

As we head into Week 6 of the NFL season, Jason Yamaguchi provides an outline of the current 2022 NFL Coach of the Year Odds.
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2022 NFL Coach of the Year Odds: Nick Sirianni Leads the Field With Brian Daboll Charging Up After Five Weeks

We are now five weeks into the NFL season. Before the season began, I wrote this piece arguing that Nick Sirianni, Brandon Staley, and Nathaniel Hackett were (at the time) the three best futures bets to make on the COTY market. My Hackett angle has aged atrociously — he seems more likely to be fired than to win Coach of the Year — but Staley is still in the mix, and Sirianni is the clear favorite for the award. At this point in the year, I'm ecstatic to be holding a Sirianni COTY ticket at 22-1.

Summarizing the key points from the aforementioned article, Coach of the Year — for better or worse — tends to come down to team performance. Historically, to win COTY, a coach's team needs to do the following: make a sizable jump from their performance the season prior, make the playoffs, and over-perform the talent on their roster (specifically at quarterback). That last point is key — coaches of teams with a Mahomes, Rodgers, or Brady rarely win this award because credit for the team's success tends to get directed toward the QB rather than the head coach. Fair or not, that's how this award's voting usually works.

Now, let's take a look at how the odds have shifted since the start of the season. Specifically, let's consider the top contenders for this award, considering that it's unlikely for a coach to come out of the clouds and win COTY after being listed as a long shot. Given teams' early performances, are there any spots of value that have opened up?

*Note: I drew all of these prices from FanDuel's current listed odds for the sake of fairness. You can often find optimal prices for futures bets by shopping around, so there may be better prices available than the ones I cited.*

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NFL Coach of the Year Odds

Nick Sirianni COTY Odds: (+150) (Bet $100 to Win $150)

Sirianni is the deserving favorite through five weeks — his Eagles are the sole remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Looking ahead, the Eagles play the following teams: DAL (without Dak Prescott), PIT, HOU, WAS, IND, GB, TEN, NYG (x2), CHI, DAL again (probably with Prescott), and NO. Philadelphia will likely be favored in every one of those games, some of them by double-digit points. This is an Eagles team that could plausibly win 8-9 more games (if not more) and comfortably finish as the 1-seed in the NFC. If that occurs, it's hard to envision a scenario where Sirianni doesn't win Coach of the Year. I'm not sure there's a positive expected value at +150, though — it seems like a fair price.

Brian Daboll COTY Odds: (+600) (Bet $100 to Win $600)

Daboll's Giants have been the biggest surprise of the young NFL season. Despite having a roster devoid of talent in nearly every position group and being further obliterated by injuries, the Daniel Jones-led Giants are 4-1. Two of those four wins came against the 2021 1-seeds — the Packers and the Titans. During this five-game stretch, it has been abundantly clear, more often than not, that the Giants have a coaching advantage over their opponents. This stands in stark contrast to the prior regime in New York, where the ineptitude of Joe Judge and his staff was highlighted on a weekly basis. Competent coaching goes a long way in the NFL, and the Giants have that in spades.

At these odds, I'm willing to take a chance on Daboll. The Giants' list of remaining opponents includes the following: JAX, SEA, HOU, DET, WAS (x2), and IND. If the Giants win five of those winnable seven — a tall task for this roster, in fairness — they will be sitting at nine wins, putting them on the verge of sneaking into the playoffs as a wildcard. That would arguably be a greater overperformance of preseason expectations than if the Eagles were to win 13-14 games, which — as I outlined in my preseason COTY article — is a key consideration for this award. In other words, if the Giants make the playoffs, Daboll could steal Coach of the Year away from Sirianni, even if the Eagles win more games than the Giants. At +600, it's worth a shot.

Mike McDaniel COTY Odds: (+1200) (Bet $100 to Win $1200)

Miami has had a roller coaster start to the year, mostly due to factors out of McDaniel's control. The Dolphins opened with three straight wins, including a statement victory over the Bills that sent the Dolphins into first place in the AFC East. In that game, though, starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained an injury that probably should have sidelined him. He returned to the game, managed to get the win, and was subsequently concussed the following Thursday against the Bengals. The Dolphins lost that game, and they were then blown out by the Jets with third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson starting.

Given that there is no timetable for Tagovailoa's return, Miami's season could go off the rails quickly. The Dolphins looked like a Super Bowl contender when he was playing, but they haven't demonstrated an ability to win without him. With backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater also injured, Thompson will be under center for the near future. As such, I would be extremely cautious betting on McDaniel to win Coach of the Year.

Kevin O'Connell COTY Odds: (+1200) (Bet $100 to Win $1200)

The Vikings have not made it easy for themselves, but they currently sit in first place in the NFC North with a record of 4-1. O'Connell has experienced his fair share of ups and downs through his first five games as an NFL head coach — three of Minnesota's wins were by one score, and they had to overturn fourth-quarter deficits in all three.

Relative to the market, I was high on the Vikings heading into the year. As I outlined here, they stood to benefit from an injection of talent from a personnel standpoint and a much-improved offensive scheme that would optimize the existing talent on the roster (see: Justin Jefferson). Although Minnesota has not looked like a world-beater at every moment, they have shown signs of promise while also finding ways to win ugly. With many winnable games remaining on their schedule (MIA sans Tua, ARI, WAS, NE, NYJ, DET, NYG, IND, CHI), this is a team that has a great chance to take the NFC North crown and host a playoff game for the first time since 2017. At +1200, I think there's solid value on O'Connell to win Coach of the Year.

Brandon Staley COTY Odds: (+1600) (Bet $100 to Win $1600)

The Chargers have not fared as well as many (including myself) thought they would, albeit by little fault of their own. LA's roster has been absolutely decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball, with most of their key contributors (Joey Bosa, Rashawn Slater, Keenan Allen, and J.C. Jackson, among others) having already missed some amount of time. Bosa and Slater will be sidelined for most of the season, which is concerning. On top of that, star quarterback Justin Herbert has been playing with fractured rib cartilage since Week 3, which is a manageable but painful task to undergo.

There is some hope for the Chargers, though. Heading into the season, they had one of the easiest schedules in football, and that hasn't changed. They still have to play SEA, ATL, DEN (x2), LV, ARI, TEN, and IND, among others. It will likely require a Herculean effort from Herbert, but this team can salvage a successful season. I'm not sure there's value on Staley to win COTY at +1600 (which is the price at FanDuel), but you can find him as high as +2500 at other places (BetOnline). I bet on him to win the award during the preseason, and I will not be double-dipping. However, for those who did not take him before the season started, he might be worth a dart throw at this price.

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Jason Yamaguchi is an avid New York sports fan. He has a proven record of providing +EV bets by combining traditional handicapping tactics with advanced statistics. You can follow him on Twitter @TopMoneyPicks to view all of his bets, including NFL, NHL, and MLB picks.


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