Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 7

Super Bowl Odds: Teams Rising, Falling Headed Into Week 7

Through the first six weeks, it's hard to argue that Week 6 wasn't the most upside down of them all. It was the week for underdogs, with a handful of games going to the team with the longer moneyline odds. The Steelers pulled the home upset of the Buccaneers, and the Falcons followed suit with a stunning win of their own over the 49ers.

With that being said, it turned out to be a week to shake up the long-term futures for Super Bowl favorites, contenders, and longshots. Which games produced the largest changes to DraftKings' odds to win Super Bowl 57?

Super Bowl Odds For All 32 Teams Heading Into Week 7

Super Bowl Odds Risers

Buffalo Bills

Again, we emerge from another week of games with another impressive Buffalo win. Last week, it was the blowout of an inferior Pittsburgh team, but this week it was the narrow victory over the contender Chiefs.

The Bills came back from a 20-17 deficit in the final minutes to secure the 24-20 victory on the road at Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen threw for more than 300 yards and 3 touchdowns and added another 32 on the ground. He connected frequently with Stefon Diggs, as the offense was clicking on all cylinders for most of the game. Defensively, the top-ranked scoring unit forced two Patrick Mahomes interceptions and sacked the quarterback three times. They also held Kansas City to 68 rushing yards on the afternoon.

Even after facing the league's number-one scoring offense, the Bills are first at 13.5 opponent points per game. Pro Football Focus has them rated fifth in efficiency overall, but that consists of the NFL's highest-rated pass rush and the seventh-best in terms of coverage. And the latter is with a number of players out over the last two weeks.

Buffalo is a proven frontrunner to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and potentially win it all. Gaining an implied probability of 4.4%, based on a gain of 75 in betting odds, they are more than 11% clear of any other team. In fact, the Eagles are second at double the odds (+550).

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle entered the new week a game back of the lead for the NFC West. They found themselves in a three-way tie with the Rams and Cardinals, with the second of the two coming into town as short road favorites. Well, Geno Smith and company did what they have been doing from the jump this season: surprise.

Only this time Seattle didn't just notch the win by outscoring their opponents and overcoming their void of a defense. Their defense stood up to limit Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to 9 points, holding them scoreless in two of the four quarters. Murray had 100 yards rushing, but that's where the good stats end for Kliff Kingsbury's team. The Seahawks strung together six sacks, with six different players breaking through to take down the young quarterback. After the dust settled, Seattle positioned itself ahead of Arizona in another three-way tie, this time at the top of the division.

Given their standing, the Seahawks have watched their odds climb from +50000 to +20000. They rate in a tie for 26th of all teams, though they now stand above the Commanders and Panthers. Is a justifiable? PFF would indicate that there's still value to be had. Overall, they grade 22nd with the league's eighth-most efficient offensive unit. Next up is a road test against the Chargers.

Super Bowl Odds Fallers

San Francisco 49ers

Believe it or not, Seattle and San Francisco are in a very similar boat after a half-dozen games. The Niners' 3-3 record is less of a surprise and more of a disappointment even when you consider Trey Lance's season-ending injury. Jimmy Garoppolo has proven himself enough, especially for a team that's been headed by an elite defense.

This week, that elite defense was down a number of key members. Nick Bosa headlines that group which also consists of Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Emmanuel Moseley, and Jimmie Ward. That was something the Falcons made sure to take advantage of, as they covered the 4.5-point spread and then -- a whole lot more than -- some. Atlanta closed out the home victory 28-14 with a mere 129 yards passing but 168 rushing yards.

The Falcons' strong run game has them in a tie for third in offensive efficiency, consisting of the fifth-best rushing attack by PFF grade. They have struggled to hold opponents, but San Francisco committed three turnovers to Atlanta's none, providing the home squad with a big advantage.

The Niners can't just write off their loss due to injuries. The question is whether those wounds will start to heal both in the training room and on the field. This past week, their implied probability to win the title dropped by the largest amount -- -2.8% -- to where they sit now at under 4%. They're tied with the division-rival Rams and have been leapfrogged by the Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys, and Vikings. Things aren't looking up either. On deck are matchups with the Chiefs (at home) and Rams (on the road), against whom the Niners will likely be underdogs on both occasions.

Chicago Bears

At this point, it's not surprising to see the Bears near the bottom of the Super Bowl odds. They are 2-4 and have to the naked eye looked like one of the worst offensive teams in the league. What's been surprising is that, although they have been near the bottom throughout the year, it's taken until now for them to truly hit the very bottom.

After starting off the year with two wins in three games, Chicago's dropped three straight and hasn't scored more than 22 points in any of the three. Most recently, the Washington Commanders and their rather porous defense kept Justin Fields to seven points. The Bears had their highest yardage total of the year, but the issue was that they turned the ball over twice and were sacked five times. But that's not really anything new for Chicago.

Through six games, the Bears have allowed a league-high 23 sacks with a PFF grade that lands them 27th of 32. They're also tied for ninth with five interceptions thrown, albeit theirs have come on a league-low 115 pass attempts compared to the Jets, who have thrown the same number of picks on more than double the pass attempts (232).

Chicago shares an odds drop of 50000 with Houston, but they get the shameful honor here since they've experienced a larger drop from their season start (+15000). It would be a shock to see them compete for a playoff spot let alone an NFL championship.