Super Bowl Betting Splits: 60% of Bettors Backing Seahawks Over Patriots
Over 60% of bettors have backed the Seahawks in the days leading up to the big game. The sharps and experts though? Their bets tell a different story as they load up on New England Moneyline.
Jack Borovitz - February 8, 2026, 3:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadSuper Bowl Betting Splits: 60% of Bettors Backing Seahawks Over Patriots
The public has spoken, and they want Seattle. Over 60% of Super Bowl bettors are riding with the Seahawks to handle the Patriots, and honestly? Can't blame them after watching Sam Darnold drop 41 on the 49ers two weeks ago.
But something interesting is happening that should make your ears perk up, the big money bettors aren't following the crowd. While your uncle and his buddies are hammering Seattle -4.5, the sharps are quietly loading up on New England at +190. This is shaping up to be a classic "public loves the favorite, pros grab the underdog" Super Bowl.
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Everyone's on the Seahawks Hype Train
Walk into any sportsbook right now and you'll see the same thing: tickets flying in on Seattle. TheScore Bet reports 69% of spread action on the Seahawks laying 4.5 points. The moneyline? About 58% of bets are taking Seattle straight up at -220 to -240 (Get The Best Odds Here), which tracks when you consider the Seahawks averaged 36 points per playoff game while the Patriots barely scraped together 18.
That public love pushed the line from -3.5 to -4.5 within a day of the conference championships ending. Some Vegas shops even flashed -5 before pulling back. When that many people are piling on one side and books still won't budge the line higher, that tells you something.
The Sharps See Something Different
While 60% of bettors are backing Seattle, the actual dollar amounts paint a different picture. At Circa Sports, the Patriots are pulling 57% of the moneyline money despite only getting 53% of the bets. When fewer bets account for more money, you're looking at bigger wagers from more serious players. DraftKings is seeing the same pattern: Patriots drawing 54% of moneyline bets at +190, meaning a decent chunk of bettors would rather take New England outright than mess with the spread.
The Over Looked Great, Until It Didn't
The total opened at 46.5, and casual bettors immediately started pounding the Over. Makes sense when you see Seattle putting up Madden numbers every game. Early reports showed 72% of bets expected a shootout.
Then reality set in. Both defenses ranked top-2 in points allowed all season, and playoff football in February tends to get ugly when the stakes are this high. The line dropped to 45.5, and now 54% of the actual money is on the Under. Seems like people are fading the shootout narrative hard.
So Where's the Value?
The Patriots are getting that classic underdog treatment where the public thinks the line's too short and the pros see opportunity. New England at +4.5 offers textbook contrarian value, especially with underdogs covering five straight Super Bowls and winning three in a row.
Drake Maye's having a breakout year, Vrabel knows how to scheme up big games, and the Patriots are sitting at +190 to win outright. Last time New England played Super Bowl underdog was 2002 when some guy named Tom Brady was starting his first full season. They won 20-17.
Or maybe the public's right and Seattle rolls like they have all postseason. Sam Darnold's playing possessed, and not in the seeing ghosts way, the defense is suffocating, and sometimes favorites just win and cover. The 60-40 split exists for a reason.
Either way, kickoff's at 6:30 ET on NBC/Peacock. You've got hours to decide if you're riding with the crowd on Seattle or going contrarian with the sharps on New England.
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