Wicked: For Good Odds: Predicting how Wicked Sequel will Score on Rotten Tomatoes
The much-awaited sequel to the Wicked franchise hit the box office earlier this week, and critics will be closely watching the Rotten Tomatoes score over the first weekend. How will Wicked: For Good score on the tomato meter, and will they be nominated for any Oscars? Peter Alexis analyzes the Wicked: For Good rotten tomatoes odds as of Thursday, November 20th with odds from Kalshi.
Peter Alexis - November 20, 2025, 12:15 PM EST
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The sequel to last year’s "Wicked" phenomenon is finally here, and expectations could not be higher. The first movie was a massive pop culture smash, drawing mainstream and Broadway fans together and earning an 88 percent Rotten Tomatoes score that propelled it to 10 Oscar nominations including Best Picture. Early forecasts for Wicked: For Good hovered around an impressive 87 percent, signaling confidence that the franchise would continue its momentum.
But as early screenings rolled out, the projected score dipped toward 72 percent, creating real volatility in the prediction markets as we move toward the November 24 finalization date. There are still a few days for the Tomatometer to rise or fall as critics file their final reviews and audiences react on opening weekend. With that movement comes a set of odds that reflect both optimism and uncertainty. Here is the current outlook for Wicked: For Good as the premiere gets underway.
Bet on Wicked: For Good Rotten Tomatoes Score with Kalshi Here
Latest Wicked: For Good Odds From Kalshi
Over 70 Rotten Tomatoes Score: 64% Chance
The biggest question surrounding the sequel is whether it can stay above the 70% threshold on the tomato meter. At a current 64 percent chance, the market suggests cautious optimism. The dip from its original 87 percent expectation is notable, but the strong goodwill from the first film, combined with a huge built in audience and positive early fan reactions, keeps the likelihood in favorable territory. Still, the next few days will be critical as late arriving critic reviews settle the number before November 24.
Over 72 Rotten Tomatoes Score: 33% Chance
Crossing 72% is a tougher climb, and the 33 percent chance reflects that tighter window. The sequel’s early reviews suggest a split viewpoint between strong performances and some mixed reactions to pacing and tonal shifts. While hitting 72 percent is still possible, the current stabilization in the low 70s places this outcome firmly in coin flip territory, if not slightly below.
Will Cynthia Erivo Be Nominated for Best Actress: 51% Chance
Cynthia Erivo was a standout in the first film and remains the emotional centerpiece of the franchise. At a 51 percent chance of scoring a Best Actress nomination, the odds suggest a true toss up. Awards voters already respect Erivo as a powerhouse performer, but the sequel will need enough critical acclaim to elevate her performance above a crowded field. If reviews continue praising her vocal and dramatic range, she has every chance of landing in the final slate.
Will the Movie Be Nominated for Best Picture: 42% Chance
The first Wicked made it all the way to a Best Picture nomination, but the sequel faces a trickier path. At 42 percent, the probability reflects both the franchise’s awards pedigree and the uncertainty surrounding its early critical response. If the Rotten Tomatoes score stabilizes in the mid to high 70s and the box office turnout matches expectations, the film could reenter the awards conversation in a meaningful way. But with only a moderate chance right now, its fate may hinge on how strongly audiences champion it in the coming weeks.
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