Will GameStop, Ryan Cohen Acquire EBay This Year? - Latest Kalshi Odds Dip After Initial Rejection
Ryan Cohen and GameStop attempting to buy EBay unsolicited last week, and were quickly rejected as unserious earlier this week. Could there be more to this deal? Let's take a look at the latest GameStop-EBay acquisition chances from Kalshi odds on May 13th.
Peter Alexis - May 13, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadWhat are the Chances GameStop Buys EBay in 2026?
GameStop’s push to acquire eBay remains one of the strangest corporate markets on Kalshi, with odds rebounding to 23.2% after falling as low as 14% on Tuesday. The drop came after eBay rejected GameStop’s roughly $56 billion takeover bid as “neither credible nor attractive,” citing concerns around financing, operational risk, valuation, and GameStop’s governance.
The market is still treating the deal as unlikely, but not dead. Ryan Cohen has continued pushing the idea publicly, arguing that eBay is bloated and could be improved through aggressive cost cuts, while GameStop has already built a 5% stake in the company and previously signaled it could take the fight directly to shareholders.
Bet on EBay-GameStop and more business props with Kalshi Here
Latest EBay Acquisition Odds From Kalshi
Outcome | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Yes | 23% |
No | 78% |
The biggest problem is credibility. GameStop is far smaller than eBay, and the proposed cash-and-stock bid depends on a financing structure that has drawn immediate skepticism. The company’s offer reportedly included a 50/50 cash-and-stock mix at $125 per share, but analysts and eBay’s board have questioned whether GameStop can actually fund and execute a deal of this size. That is why the Kalshi market collapsed when eBay rejected the bid, and why the rebound to 23% still leaves “No” as the dominant side.
There is also a strategic mismatch. Cohen’s pitch is that GameStop’s physical stores could support eBay through authentication, intake, and fulfillment, but eBay is already presenting itself as a strong standalone business with a clearer strategy in higher-value categories, AI tools for sellers, and improved efficiency. For eBay’s board, the offer is not just about price. It is also about whether combining with GameStop would add leverage, execution risk, and a less conventional leadership structure.
The reason the market is not at zero is Cohen’s willingness to keep pressing. A hostile campaign, shareholder pressure, or revised bid could keep headlines alive, especially because GameStop’s retail base and meme-stock energy can create strange market momentum. But a serious acquisition would require financing clarity, board or shareholder support, regulatory review, and a credible plan for integrating a company far larger than GameStop itself. That is a long path, even before considering the market’s resolution timeline.
GameStop - EBay Deal Outlook & Prediction
- Lean: No - 78% Chance Bet on the the GameStop EBay Deal with Kalshi Here
“No” is the right side, even if the story is not finished. The market resolves at the end of 2026, and even if GameStop somehow turned this into a more serious process, a deal of this size would likely take longer than that to negotiate, finance, approve, and close. At 23%, the “Yes” side still looks more like a headline trade than a realistic completion bet.
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