2024 Presidential Election Odds: Where Does Donald Trump Rank Among the Top Candidates?

Looking at the odds for the top 10 candidates for President in 2024. Where does Donald Trump fit into the equation?
Matt O'Leary |
Mon, November 22, 12:46 PM EST | 4 min read
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2024 Presidential Election Odds: Where Does Donald Trump Rank Among the Top Candidates?

In just under three years, the 2024 Presidential Election will be taking place. Yes, it may seem like the 2020 Election wasn’t too far away, but it’s never too early to start looking ahead to the next one.

In 2020, we saw a heated race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden where Biden ended up pulling it out with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. That was four years after Trump edged out Hillary Clinton 306 to 232.

As of now, Donald Trump is the favorite to win the election in 2024, at +300. Today, we’ll be looking at the top-10 favorites to win in 2024 and how their odds have changed over the past few months.

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Donald Trump (R) +300

In 2024, Trump is hoping to do his best Grover Cleveland impression. Cleveland served as president from 1885-1889 and then again from 1893 to 1897 with Benjamin Harris serving the term in between. The 45th President is currently the favorite over incumbent Joe Biden but that wasn’t always the case. Comparatively, from the beginning of the year until now, his odds went from +600 to +300, meaning he had an implied chance of 14.29 percent that has gone up to 25 percent in the last 11 months.

Joe Biden (D) +500

We’re roughly 11 months into the Joe Biden Presidency and we’ve already seen his odds drop from the beginning to now. When he was sworn in, he was +400 to win reelection in 2024 but now he sits at just +500. That means his implied chance of winning went from 20 percent down to 16.67 percent in roughly a year’s time. The change happened after election day, considering the red wave around the country maybe that was an indicator for the oddsmakers to make the change.

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Kamala Harris (D) +650

Kamala Harris was one of the Democratic candidates for the 2020 election. After Biden won the nomination, it was announced that Harris would be his running mate. Back in July, Harris actually had some solid +350 odds which would put her right up there at the top with a 22.22 percent chance. Since that time, she’s fallen to +650. Now at just 13.33 percent, she has some ground to make up to get into contention with the top two candidates.

Ron DeSantis (R) +800

Here we have our first candidate, Ron DeSantis, who isn’t a former President or Vice President. DeSantis is the Governor of Florida and seems destined for a Presidential run. He’s had a massive climb from the start of 2021 until now. Books had him at +5000 or an implied chance of 1.96 with that skyrocketing up to +800 which is an 11.11 percent chance of happening.

Nikki Haley (R) +1800

Haley was the first female Governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017 before serving as the Ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2019. While she has yet to run for President, she was considered as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential candidate in 2012. Her odds have dropped in recent months, likely due to DeSantis’ climb up this list, but at +1800 and an implied chance of 5.26 percent, she rounds out the top five.

Mike Pence (R) +2500

Pence served as Donald Trump’s Vice President from 2017 to 2021. Previously to being Vice President, Pence was the 50th Governor of Indiana, serving from 2013 until his Vice President duties in 2017. At +2500 he has a 3.85 percent implied chance, which is a dropoff from where he previously was. In July, he was at +1600, which is an implied chance of 5.88 percent.

Pete Buttigieg (D) +2800

Pete Buttigieg was the 32nd Mayor of South Bend from 2012 through 2020 and he’s been the U.S. Secretary of Transportation since early 2021 serving under Joe Biden. Back in July, Buttigieg was at +4000, which is just an implied chance of 2.44 percent. That has moved up to 3.45 percent with his odds shifting to +2800 this month.

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Dwayne Johnson +4000

Can you smell what The Rock is cooking? Well, it might just be a Presidential campaign. In 2020, Dwayne Johnson came out in support of Joe Biden and was critical of President Trump after George Floyd’s death. It’s unclear what his part would be but he makes our list with the eighth-best odds at +4000. Ironically, his odds were much better back in July when he was looking at +2000 or an implied chance of 4.76 percent.

Elise Stefanik (R) +4000

Stefanik is the Chair of the House Republican Conference. Previously she was a member of the House of Representatives from New York’s 21st district. The youngest President in our history was John F. Kennedy who was 43, if Elise Stefanki was elected she’d be the new youngest at just 37 years old. She opened at +2500 in July and has since dropped to +4000 as recently as early November.

Mike Pompeo (R) +4000

Pompeo was the Secretary of the State for Donald Trump from 2018 through the time he left office. He also previously served as the Director of the CIA and was a Member of the House of Representatives. Pompeo has actually seen his odds get better. He started out at +6600 at beginning of the year and now is sitting at +4000 nearly a year later.

2021 US Presidential Election Odds

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