Back Koepka, Vincent For Strong Starts at Royal Birkdale in the Open Championship FRL Market

The 154th Open Championship gets underway tomorrow, and we are back with our best First Round Leader picks and predictions for this week's major at Royal Birkdale.

Royal Birkdale plays host to the Open Championship for the first time since 2017, and if that renewal is anything to go by, the players could be in for a fascinating week.

Couple a baked-out, lightning-fast course with what looks like tough, breezy conditions on the Southport coast, and you are staring at a layout ready to test the very best. Can anyone defy the elements and get off to a blistering fast start this week?

With that in mind, rather than the habitual low scorers you would typically look for in the first round leader market, you might this time be best served looking for those that can handle tactical links setups and limit mistakes rather than simply racking up birdies. The weather, of course, can change, so I won't put all my eggs in one basket, but splitting exposure across the morning and afternoon waves looks to be the smartest path forward.

Let's dive into the data to see who we should follow for our picks in this market.

2026 Open Championship Date, Time, and Where to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 16th - Sunday, July 19th, 2026
• Time: 1:30 am ET / 6:30 am BST
• Where to Watch: USA Network, NBC, Peacock

Click here for complete 2026 Open Championship First Round Leader Odds

My Picks in the 2026 Open Championship First Round Leader Market

Brooks Koepka (+8000) - Bet365

• Tee Time: 2:53 PM BST / 9:53 AM EST (Afternoon Wave)

If you want a guy who lives for the big-tournament atmosphere, you back Brooks Koepka. The five-time major champion has a reputation for pacing himself over 72 holes, but he’s actually become one of the premier fast-starters on tour this season. Even when his weekend form has faltered, his Thursday numbers are dazzling. Over his recent stretches, Koepka was the first-round leader at the Canadian Open, sat second after day one at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and was sixth on Thursday's leaderboard at the Genesis Scottish Open last week.

More importantly, he has major pedigree at this exact venue. When the Open came to Royal Birkdale in 2017, Koepka fired an opening-round 65 to hold a share of the first-round lead. He's twice been 3rd after round one of an Open Championship as well.

Going off late in a high-energy group alongside Shane Lowry and Aaron Rai, expect Brooks to feed off the major championship buzz early.

Brian Harman (+9000) - DraftKings

• Tee Time: 10:20 AM BST / 5:20 AM EST (Morning Wave)

Brian Harman knows exactly what it takes to tear apart a links golf course when it gets firm and fiery. The former Champion Golfer of the Year thrives when precision off the tee and strategic lag putting are premium requirements—the exact defensive matrix Birkdale is throwing at the field this week.

Harman has a history of hitting the ground running in the UK, having been 2nd, 4th, and 10th after round one among his last five starts in the Open Championship, and at +9000, we are getting a massive discount on an elite tactical links player who gets optimal morning scoring conditions before the afternoon bake-out settles in.

Scott Vincent (+16500) - DraftKings

• Tee Time: 8:36 AM BST / 3:36 AM EST (Morning Wave)

For our primary morning wave sleeper, we think we may have found an absolute diamond of a pick in Scott Vincent. The Zimbabwean has shown a recurring statistical trend of hitting the ground running on LIV this season, and getting an early 8:36 AM tee time gives him the ultimate chronological advantage. Vincent will look to take advantage of pristine, dew-swept greens and a morning forecast projecting winds at a dead-calm 4–5 mph before the links course morphs into a defensive furnace in the afternoon.

Vincent has shown that when his long-iron accuracy is dialed in, he can go low on sub-par rounds as fast as anyone in the world. His putting has been unbelievable this season, and he can hang with the game's elite on the putting surfaces, which will be his path to success.

So far this season, Vincent has been 10th, 39th, 3rd, 12th, 7th, 3rd, 31st, 1st, 1st, and 18th after round one. This means in his past five starts he has twice led the way in round one and on another occasion been 3rd.

At huge triple-digit odds, he’s a fantastic target to lead after Thursday's opening lap.