2022 Midterm Elections Odds: Republicans Given 70% Chance of Controlling Both House and Senate
2022 Midterm Elections Odds: Republicans Given 70% Chance of Controlling Both House and Senate
Even though it's not legal to bet on it in the United States, US Politics is one of the most popular betting markets in the entire world. The was the case for the 2020 election and it will be again in 2024 but what about 2022?
Sure, there's no presidential election but we will absolutely see an important election in 2022 with the Senate and House of Representatives up for grabs. The most likely outcome is Republicans controlling the House and the Senate.
2022 Midterm Elections Odds
| House | Senate | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Republican | Republican | 70.42% |
| Republican | Democrat | 22.22% |
| Democrat | Republican | 11.90% |
| Democrat | Democrat | 6.90% |
Right now, the Democrats have the majority 221 to the Republicans 213 in the House of Representatives. A repeat of Democratic control has just under a 12 percent chance of happening.
In what was once a close race, back in July, we've really seen the Republicans pull away in recent months with the likelihood up to just over 70 percent. Back in July, a Republican House and Senate were even with a Republican House and Democrat Senate were even at 31.75 percent.
2022 Midterm Election Odds Movement
| House | Senate | July 2021 | December 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Republican | 31.75% | 70.42% |
| Republican | Democrat | 31.75% | 22.22% |
| Democrat | Republican | 29.41% | 11.90% |
| Democrat | Democrat | 14.29% | 6.90% |
Line movement is nothing new in politics. The 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections showed just that, how quickly things can change. Again, as of now, it looks like the majority is heavy Republican but all that can change rather quickly.
In just sixth months time perhaps we see the Democrats catch up to where things were back in July. By the way, if you're curious this is what the Presidential odds look like for 2024 right now:
2024 Presidential Odds
| Odds | Name |
|---|---|
| +300 | Donald Trump |
| +450 | Joe Biden |
| +700 | Kamala Harris |
| +800 | Ron DeSantis |
| +2000 | Nikki Haley |