Texas Republican Senate Primary Odds: Ken Paxton Massive Favorite in Tuesday's Run-Off
The Texas Republican Senate primary race favors attorney general Ken Paxton, with John Cornyn trailing behind. Is Paxton the obvious winner on Tuesday night in the run-off? Peter Alexis breaks down the Texas Republican Senate Nominee odds for the primary final vote on Tuesday, March 26th.
Peter Alexis - May 26, 2026, 6:55 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadTexas Republican Senate Primary Odds: Ken Paxton Massive Favorite in Tuesday's Run-Off
Ken Paxton has become the overwhelming Kalshi favorite as runoff voting continues Tuesday, May 26, in the Texas Republican Senate primary. Paxton was trading around 62% just a few weeks ago, but he has surged to 96.4%, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn has collapsed to 3.7%.
The move reflects a race that has broken hard toward Paxton in the closing stretch. Recent polling already showed Paxton ahead or narrowly leading Cornyn before runoff day, and Trump’s endorsement helped turn the race into a test of loyalty inside the Texas GOP.
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Latest Texas Republican Senate Primary Odds From Kalshi
Candidate | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Ken Paxton | 96% |
John Cornyn | 4% |
Ken Paxton (96%)
Paxton’s odds have moved like a candidate closing with full momentum. The Texas attorney general has used Trump’s endorsement, anti-establishment energy, and conservative base support to build a commanding runoff position. The market was still treating this as competitive earlier in May, but the latest Kalshi move suggests traders now see Paxton as almost certain to win the nomination.
The closing argument has centered on Paxton as the more aggressive MAGA-aligned candidate, while Cornyn has been framed by opponents as an incumbent tied to the old Senate Republican establishment. That contrast has mattered more than Paxton’s vulnerabilities, including years of ethics and legal scrutiny. In a low-turnout runoff, enthusiasm and alignment with the party’s dominant faction can matter as much as traditional incumbency strength.
John Cornyn (4%)
Cornyn entered the race with the advantages of incumbency, long Senate experience, and a massive campaign operation, but the runoff has moved away from him. His campaign reportedly spent heavily attacking Paxton over personal and ethics issues, yet the market now suggests those attacks did not stop the late consolidation behind Paxton.
The collapse to 3.7% is especially striking because Cornyn had remained competitive in several polls earlier in the runoff. A University of Houston poll from late April into early May had Paxton ahead by only three points, while other surveys showed a wider Paxton edge. The final market move indicates traders are treating the late polling and runoff-day signals as decisive rather than noisy.
Texas Senate Runoff Betting Outlook
This market has moved from competitive to nearly settled. Paxton’s climb from the low 60s to 96.4% shows how sharply traders have reacted to the closing stretch, with the Trump endorsement, recent polling, and runoff-day momentum all pushing in the same direction.
Cornyn still has the formal status of incumbent, but the live market is no longer pricing this like a race where that matters much. Unless turnout produces a major surprise, Paxton is positioned to win the Republican nomination and set up a general election fight against Democrat James Talarico.
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