Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction: Flagg-less Mavs on a Back-to-Back Face a Memphis Squad That Owns This Matchup
The Memphis Grizzlies (21-36) travel to American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Mavericks (21-37) on Friday, February 27, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET, with Cooper Flagg ruled out for his sixth straight game due to a left midfoot sprain, Kyrie Irving's season already finished with a knee injury, and Daniel Gafford listed as questionable, putting a Dallas team on the back end of a back-to-back after dropping 130-121 to Sacramento at home Thursday night up against a Grizzlies squad that is just as depleted on paper but arrives with a full day of rest, a 7-of-8 head-to-head edge against this Mavs team, and a net rating essentially identical to Dallas's own, making the 5.5-point home line for a team that has covered just three times in twelve home favorite spots and has dropped six straight at American Airlines Center a very hard sell.
OC Staff - February 27, 2026, 6:00 PM EST
3 Minute ReadMemphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Picks and Prediction: Flagg-less Mavs on a Back-to-Back Face a Memphis Squad That Owns This Matchup
Grizzlies vs Mavericks Recent Performance
Memphis comes in at 21-36, sitting 11th in the West and mired in a rough stretch. The Grizzlies have lost seven of their last eight games, most recently a 133-112 blowout at home to Golden State that exposed just how shorthanded this roster has become. On that same night, Ty Jerome went for 22 on 14 shots, GG Jackson chipped in 24, and Taylor Hendricks added 14 off the bench, but none of that mattered against a Warriors team that had its way on both ends. Memphis has been giving up 118.1 points per game on the season and the last stretch has been uglier, surrendering an average of 125 over their four-game slide. They lost the rebounding battle by 14 to Golden State and turned it over 16 times. Road trips haven't been kind either: the Grizzlies are 9-18 away from home on the year.
Dallas sits at 21-37, 12th seed in the West, and heading in the wrong direction. The Mavericks have won just two of their last ten games and come into Friday's tipoff on zero rest after absorbing a 130-121 home loss to Sacramento on Thursday, a game where Naji Marshall erupted for 36 points and 10 rebounds in a losing effort. That loss extended their home losing streak to six games. The B2B situation is a real issue for a Dallas team built around younger legs and a depleted rotation right now. Without Flagg's 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists leading the way, the Mavericks' offense has averaged 114.5 points per game this season and the unit looks even more patchwork without him. They are 1-4 against the spread in games where they have been favored by at least 5.5 points this season.
Grizzlies vs Mavericks Head to Head
Memphis has owned this series. The Grizzlies have won seven of their last eight against Dallas and are 6-0 in their last six meetings outright, with a 6-1 record in their last seven trips to American Airlines Center to face the Mavericks specifically. That kind of lopsided dominance in a series does not happen by accident, and it is not a small sample getting inflated by a single fluky run. Memphis has simply matched up well against Dallas for an extended stretch, a trend that favors taking the points here with a Grizzlies squad that knows how to keep these games within a possession or two. Both teams covered ATS in the prior season series, and the historical edge overwhelmingly points toward Memphis staying competitive in this spot.
The efficiency numbers back it up. Dallas carries a -3.1 net rating on the season. Memphis sits at -2.8. Functionally, these are the same team in terms of overall quality right now, making a 5.5-point spread essentially a pure home-court and rest argument. Home court in the NBA is worth about 3 to 3.5 points. Dallas's rest disadvantage on a B2B eats 2 to 4 of those back, which gets the real expected margin down to somewhere between a pick and a 2-point Dallas edge. That is nowhere close to 5.5.
Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- How to Watch: KFAA-TV, FanDuel Sports Network Southeast, NBA League Pass
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Grizzlies vs Mavericks Odds
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Grizzlies vs Mavericks Team News
Memphis rolls into this one battered. Ja Morant is out with an ankle issue, which means Ty Jerome continues running the show at point guard, and he has handled the load reasonably well: 19.6 points, 5.6 assists per game, shooting 51.5% from the field and 41.2% from three this season. Cedric Coward (13.3 PPG rookie) is also sidelined, as are Santi Aldama (knee), Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke (calf), and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Kyle Anderson is listed as doubtful. That is a lot of names off the board, but the Grizzlies still have functional pieces. GG Jackson gives them a volume scorer at forward, Taylor Hendricks provides a young body who can attack Dallas's thinned-out frontline, and Walter Clayton Jr., who came over in the Jaren Jackson trade, has been handling extended minutes well at guard. Memphis's offensive rebounding rate of 25.8% is nearly three full percentage points better than Dallas's 22.7%, which translates into extra possessions in an up-tempo game between two fast-paced rosters.
Dallas has its own hospital ward. Flagg (left midfoot sprain) misses his sixth straight after averaging 20.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists as the team's clear primary option. Kyrie Irving is done for the year after knee surgery. Dereck Lively II is out. Gafford is questionable. P.J. Washington is day-to-day with an ankle issue. Khris Middleton is questionable. What that leaves is a Mavericks team leaning on Naji Marshall, who did go off for 36 against Sacramento on Thursday, Ryan Nembhard, Tyus Jones, and Marvin Bagley III filling center minutes. Klay Thompson remains available and leads the team in three-pointers at 2.9 per game, but even Klay cannot make up for this much missing production, especially on a second night with no rest. Dallas's defense has allowed the lowest three-point percentage in the league at 34.2%, which is the one calling card that could bottle up a Memphis team that connects on 13.5 threes per game, but that defensive reputation is going to get tested hard by fatigue on a B2B.
Prediction: Mavericks 118, Grizzlies 115
Dallas wins this one at home but not by enough to cover. Marshall keeps the offense afloat, Klay finds his spots against a Memphis perimeter defense that has been gettable all season, and the Mavericks' home crowd gives them a slight edge in the fourth quarter when it matters. But the Grizzlies hang in the whole way. Jerome runs the Memphis offense efficiently, Hendricks keeps finding buckets against a soft Dallas frontline, and the extra rebounding Memphis generates keeps the possession count close enough that a 10-point Dallas run never gets off the ground. Fatigue shows up for the Mavericks somewhere in the second half. A team on a back-to-back, missing its top two stars, coming off a game the night before where they allowed 130 does not suddenly lock in on defense for 48 fresh minutes. The final margin is three points, a full two and a half shy of the spread.
Best Bet: Grizzlies +5.5 (-128) Click here to get the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Covering 5.5 does not require Memphis to win this game. It just requires the Grizzlies to do what they have done seven times in their last eight against this exact opponent, against a Dallas team running on fumes after Thursday night, without the two players who defined their offense all season. The net ratings are nearly identical. The B2B shaves 2 to 4 points off the real home-court edge. Dallas is 1-4 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more this season. And if Marshall is gassed from 36 minutes the night before, the Mavericks do not have anyone else to pick up the scoring slack against a Memphis squad that may be shorthanded but knows how to stay in games. The under 237.5 is worth a look here too: both teams have averaged around 231 combined points over their last ten games, and B2B fatigue on the Dallas side only pushes that number lower. The Grizzlies at +5.5 is the play, and locking it in before any injury news shifts this line further is the smart move.
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